We’ve reached the NBA Finals, with the Lakers facing the Heat. We’re 10/14 on predictions during this year’s playoffs, and we’ll try to finish on a high note. We’ll give a prediction, reasoning, and what it would take for the other team to prove us wrong.
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Heat (5)
Prediction: Lakers in 5
Reasoning:
The Lakers have been dominant throughout the playoffs, winning all of their series by a score of 4-1. They faced the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals, and they didn’t slow down at all. Anthony Davis led the team in scoring, putting up stats of 31/6/3, and LeBron James nearly averaged a triple-double with stats of 27/10/9. Both players also shot 54% from the field. Although no other players put up noteworthy stats, the supporting cast was balanced and productive, shooting 36% on 3-pointers. Rajon Rondo has also continued to bring value, shooting 48% from the field and 46% from 3, and averaging 7.4 assists per game on just 21 minutes per game. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who had been somewhat inconsistent in previous rounds, also had a strong showing averaging 11 points per game on 53/44/83 shooting splits. Overall, the Lakers are continuing to get better.
On the other hand, the despite also being 12-3 in the playoffs, the Heat have shown some weakness. They beat the Celtics 4-2 in the Conference Finals. However, the Celtics actually outscored them during the series, and had they not blown several fourth quarter leads, the Celtics could have won. If the Lakers are given the chance where all they need to do is hold onto fourth quarter leads, they’ll likely capitalize on the opportunity. Also, the Heat’s hot shooting slowed down significantly. They shot 37.3% on 3-pointers against the Bucks in the 2nd Round, and this dropped to 32.3% against the Celtics. If the Celtics can hold the Heat to subpar shooting, the Lakers should be able to as well.
Also, the Heat still haven’t had anyone play like a superstar. Against the Celtics, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, and Jimmy Butler all averaged at least 19 points per game, but no one on the team averaged more than 22. The issue is that although any of these players is capable of going off, they’ve all shown that they can go cold and have off games. If the Heat want to win the championship, they’ll need at least one consistent go-to guy who can lead the team every game and be aggressive to make sure he gets shots up. On the other hand, the Lakers have two players consistently playing like superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and it’s pretty much a given that they can rely on them to carry the team.
Experience also matters at this point. None of the key players on the Heat have been to the Finals before, whereas this is LeBron’s 10th time in the Finals. LeBron can be trusted to produce at his best, but there’s no guarantee that some of the Heat players won’t get worse under the pressure. LeBron has proven himself too many times to pick against him at this point.
The Lakers have been the best team this season, and they should close things out comfortably.
Why the Heat could still win:
The Heat have a lot of versatility, both on offense and on defense, meaning it might be difficult for the Lakers to exploit them. The Lakers tend to have LeBron and Davis in for the majority of the game, and they either add to their star duo with a big such as Dwight Howard or Javale McGee, or go small by playing an additional guard such as Rondo or Caruso. When the Lakers go big, the Heat can resort to their zone defense, which they successfully used to slow down the Celtics and Bucks. This will force the Lakers’ supporting cast to shoot 3’s, and the Lakers have struggled at times during the regular season and playoffs. If the zone doesn’t work, the Heat can still try to put Adebayo on the Lakers’ center, and keep Butler and Crowder on LeBron and Davis. When the Lakers go smaller and only have LeBron and Davis in, the Heat will be able to put Adebayo on Davis, and have Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, and Andre Iguodala guard LeBron. Although a zone won’t work as well since the Lakers will have more 3-point shooters, the Heat should still have a chance if they try man-to-man defense, and it is probably advantageous to them if the Lakers go small.
Although the Heat can adapt to the lineups that the Lakers play, to win they’ll need to force the Lakers hand due to their matchups on offense. The Heat only ever have one big in the game, usually Adebayo, so if the Lakers go big, they’ll have to put their center on Bam. This will mean that LeBron and Davis will have to chase the Heat wing players around screens on the perimeter, and this isn’t the best role for either defensive star. Another problem the big lineup poses is the issue of fouling. In the Conference Finals, Dwight Howard had at least 4 fouls in 4 of the games, despite only playing an average of 19.6 minutes per game. Additionally, the Heat are ranked first in free throw attempt rate. Assuming the Lakers go small and put Davis on Bam, LeBron will have to guard the Heat wing shooters, and the Heat could try to take advantage by trying to tire LeBron out.
Ultimately, it will come down to whether the Heat can produce at top efficiency on offense. The Lakers have struggled at times with shooting, and the Heat showed against the Bucks that they’re capable of getting hot. If the Heat just shoot really well from 3, it will make it difficult for the Lakers, and there’s not that much that they can do.
If the Heat get hot from 3, have one or two players step it up and play well in every game, and succeed in having a defensive scheme which slows down Davis and LeBron, they’ll pose a real threat to the Lakers, so they do have a small chance to win the series.
All-Star Analytics 