We’ve reached the Western Conference Finals, with the Lakers and Nuggets competing for a chance to make the NBA Finals. We’ll give a prediction, reasoning, and what it would take for the other team to prove us wrong.
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Denver Nuggets (3)
Prediction: Lakers win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
After losing game 1 of their 2nd Round series to the Houston Rockets, the Lakers dominated the rest of the series, winning 4-1. They were led by their star duo of LeBron James, who averaged 26/10/7 on 51/29/71 shooting splits, and Anthony Davis, who averaged 25/12/4 on 60/40/80 shooting splits. They were also helped Rajon Rondo, who returned from injury and averaged 11/5/7 on 51/44/75 shooting splits. This was a big step up from his regular season averages of 7/3/5 on 42/33/66. While this discrepancy makes it seem that Rondo’s production might be unsustainable, he has been known to step up his game in the playoffs, and he should be able to maintain his level of play for the rest of the postseason. Having a second playmaker will allow LeBron to spend more time off the ball, and it will be harder to defend the Lakers since the defense won’t be able to focus all of its efforts on LeBron. Additionally, it well help the Lakers offensively when LeBron is on the bench.
While the Lakers seem to have hit their stride and reached peak form in the playoffs, the Nuggets have been extremely inconsistent. In their first round series against the Utah Jazz, they fell behind 3-1 before coming back to win the series behind the great play of Nikola Jokic, and Jamal Murray. They again fell behind 3-1 to the Los Angeles Clippers, and came back once again, being down by 15, 19, and 12 points in their last 3 wins respectively. In the playoffs Jokic has averaged 25.4/10.8/6.0 on incredible shooting splits 51.5/44.0/83.0. Murray is averaging 27.1/5.0/6.4 on even better shooting splits: 50.2/49.1/91.3. Although his average points aren’t that amazing, Murray has scored 40 or 50 in several games, meaning he can go off in any given game.
Although the stats look promising for the Nuggets, there’s good reason to believe that the Lakers’ strong defense will decrease the efficiency and scoring of Jokic and Murray. In the first round, Jokic was mostly defended by Rudy Gobert, who despite being arguably the best rim defender in the league, lacked the mobility to guard Jokic outside of the paint, often sagging and giving up open jumpers. Against the Clippers, he was defended by Ivica Zubac and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell struggled because he was 4 inches shorter than Jokic, and Zubac lacked the mobility to slow down Jokic. Jokic was able to respond to whoever guarded him, either bullying them in the paint, or spreading the floor and hitting a barrage of jumpers and threes. Now, against the Lakers, he will face some of the best defenders in the league. Anthony Davis is just as mobile as Jokic and can guard him on the perimeter, and he also has the size and strength to guard him in the post. The Lakers also have very versatile defenders in LeBron, McGee, and Howard, who will all likely spend some time on Jokic as well. Although Jokic will probably still be the best or second best Nuggets player this series, chances are that he won’t be as good as he was in previous rounds.
The Lakers also should be able to slow down Murray. When the Lakers played the Rockets in the Second Round, they were able to limit James Harden by bringing double teams on almost every possession, and forcing Harden to either take a bad shot or give it up to a supporting player. Doing this against Jamal Murray every time down the court is unnecessary, but the Lakers do have it as an option in case Murray gets hot. Additionally, in the playoffs the Lakers have the third best defensive rating, only behind the Raptors and Celtics.
Overall, the Lakers were the best team in the West this season. On paper, the Lakers are much better, and they should easily advance to the Finals.
Why the Nuggets could still win:
The best chance for the Nuggets to win this series will be for Jokic and Murray to maintain their scoring and efficiency. It seemed that their production would fall off after the First Round, but Jokic and Murray continued their elite play against the Clippers, especially in the last three games. Over 14 games in the playoffs, Jokic and Murry are both shooting well above 40% from three, with Murray at 49.1%. Maintaining this efficiency would force the Lakers to be aggressive at guarding the 3, and if they are forced to run schemes that double Murray or Jokic, the Nuggets will have the opportunity to swing the ball and create opportunities for their supporting cast.
Another factor that will play a role in this series is the Lakers three point shooting. The Lakers were the worst 3-point shooting team in the 8 seeding games in the bubble, but they’ve improved to a respectable 35.9% in the playoffs. Still, the Lakers have shown that they’re vulnerable if they have a cold shooting game from 3, so the Nuggets might be able to capitalize with their superior outside shooting if the Lakers struggle.
The Nuggets easily could have gotten swept in both series that they’ve played, but given that they’ve made it this far after two 3-1 comebacks, there is a tiny chance that they could shock the world once again and make the Finals.
All-Star Analytics 