Denver Nuggets (1) vs Miami Heat (7)
Prediction: Nuggets win 4-3
Reasoning:
The Denver Nuggets have continued their dominant run in the playoffs, this time sweeping the Lakers in the Conference Finals. Their star-duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray was unstoppable, with Jokic averaging an very efficient triple-double of 27.8 | 14.5 | 11.8 on 51 | 47 | 78 shooting splits, while Murray scored at an even higher volume, averaging 32.5 | 6.3 | 5.3 on historically efficient 53 | 41 | 95 shooting splits. Although the Nuggets posted their worst defensive rating of the playoffs by allowing the Lakers to score 117.9 points per possession, they also put up their best offensive rating of the playoffs at 124.3, and overall they’re trending in the right direction.
The Heat have also had a magical run so far, becoming just the second 8-seed to reach the Finals in history. However, their momentum seems to have been slowing down, as after reaching a 3-0 in the Conference Finals against the Celtics, they allowed the Celtics to even it 3-3 before the Heat ultimately won game 7. Jimmy Butler has been leading the Heat throughout the playoffs, but he’s also been slowing down. After having an all-time great performance where he averaged 35.7 ppg on 60% shooting from the field and 44% from 3 in the First Round against the 1-seeded Bucks, Butler has fallen to 24.6 ppg on 43% shooting from the field and 11% from 3 in the Second Round and 24.7 ppg on 42% shooting from the field and 35% from 3 in the Conference Finals. The big thing for the Heat this playoff has been their 3-point shooting. Despite being below-average at 34.4% during the regular season, the Heat shot 45% from 3 against the Bucks and 43.4% from 3 against the Celtics, and they needed this level of efficiency in order to win what were both close series. Those are teams of similar caliber to the Nuggets, and it’s very possible for the Heat to win this series if they are able to replicate that level of efficiency, but given the large sample size of the regular season, it seems more likely than not that the Heat’s efficiency will fall off.
Although what the Heat have done up to this point is very impressive, the Nuggets have been the more star-studded and dominant team throughout these playoffs, and we expect them to win a close series in what will hopefully be an exciting Finals.
All-Star Analytics 