Denver Nuggets (1) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Prediction: Lakers win 4-2
Reasoning:
The Denver Nuggets continued their dominance in the playoffs against the star-studded Phoenix Suns, beating them in a convincing 6 game series. Jokic ate the Suns’ interior defense alive, torching them for 34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, on 59.4 | 44.4 | 85.4 splits. Jokic also had plenty of help from his co-stars and role players, with Murray at 25 points per game, and Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all adding double digit points per game. This made it possible for the Nuggets to post a ridiculous 122.1 offensive rating.
The question for the Nuggets-Suns series was how much the Nuggets defense would be able to slow down a star-powered offense led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Both players were extremely impressive with Booker averaging 30.8 on 56.9 | 54.8 | 87.5 splits and Durant putting up 29.5 points on 45.3 | 22.2 | 88.2 splits. However, outside of these two, only Deandre Ayton averaged more than 10 points per game (10.8). This shows how effective the Nuggets’ defense can be even with their slow footed center being an average defender at best, as they were able to hold the Suns to an 112.2 offensive rating.
On the Lakers’ side, they were able to dethrone the reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors in a slightly closer 6 game series. Offensively, the Lakers had a balanced attack with LeBron and AD putting up over 20 points per game and Russell, Reaves, Schroder, and Walker all with double digit points as well.
The Lakers had an offensive rating of 114.5, but more importantly they were able to hold the Warriors’ vaunted offense to 111.6 rating. This has been the calling card for the Lakers throughout the playoffs, as Davis has spearheaded their elite defense in the interior with their wings and guards holding up very solidly on the perimeter. They were able to hold Curry to 26.7 ppg on 43.9 | 34.3 | 88.2 splits and Klay to 16.2 ppg on 34.3 | 38.1 | 83.3 splits.
The first important question for this series comes with who guards Jokic. While AD has had an all-time defensive performance throughout these playoffs, there are questions to be asked about whether he can hold up as a post defender, especially against Jokic who has a weight/size advantage on him and can space the floor a bit. Outside of AD, the Lakers don’t really have any bigs who can slow Jokic down. The only alternative is to place their bigger wings on him and have AD roam in the paint while guarding someone like Gordon who typically resides in the dunker spot.
Defensively, the Nuggets will have to decide how to use Jokic in pick and roll coverage. Against the Suns, drop coverage allowed plenty of mid-range opportunities, but the Lakers are much more likely to attack the basket, and AD is a much better lob threat than Ayton will ever be.
We expect all the games in this series to have the opportunity to swing either way, and because of this we give the Lakers the slight edge because of their playoff experience.
Why the Nuggets could still win:
The Nuggets have been dominating the playoffs so far, and if they can hold up defensively against the pick and roll, they they could easily win the series with how well Jokic has been playing. If Jokic continues his offensive masterclass and the Nuggets can keep the Lakers offense at the same low level its been performing at, we could see Jokic make the first finals of his career.
All-Star Analytics 