Boston Celtics (1) vs Miami Heat (8)
Prediction: Celtics win 4-2
Reasoning:
It has been an amazing run for the Miami Heat. After losing their first play-in game, they have since upset the 1-seeded, title-favorite Milwaukee Bucks, and the 5-seeded New York Knicks to make their 2nd conference finals in the last 4 years. Last round, the Heat won in a convincing 6-game series over the Knicks, and while their offense slowed down to only a 113.4 rating, their defense was dominant, holding New York to a 109.2 offensive rating. Jimmy Butler didn’t have quite the same level of performance as he did against the Bucks, as he fell to only 24.6 ppg on subpar 43.2/11.1/86.8 shooting splits. However ,this fall off was mostly due to the fact that the Knicks devoted nearly their entire defensive effort towards him. This allowed the other players to step up, with Bam at 18.7 ppg, Strus at 14.7, Lowry at 12.2, Martin at 10.5, and Vincent at 10.3. It should also be noted that overall, the Heat began regressing from their lights-out shooting against the Bucks, as they were only able to shoot 42.5% from the field and 30.6% from three. Despite this, the Heat’s elite defense was able to hold the Knicks’ 3rd ranked offense to an even worse performance.
The Celtics, on the other hand, under-performed the high expectations they had in their matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. They allowed Harden to explode for two 40 point games and take a 3-2 lead against them. After that, Tatum came in clutch after an abysmal performance to hit 3 threes in crunch time to clinch game 6, and a dominant 51 point performance from Tatum in game 7 sealed the series. Tatum led the Celtics with 29 ppg, and Brown wasn’t too far behind at 23 ppg. They put up an impressive 119.8 offensive rating, while holding the 76ers to an 110.2 rating on offense.
This is actually the third time these two teams have matched up in the Conference Finals in the last 4 years, and thus far the matchup has been split. In 2022, the Celtics pulled off the win in an intense 7 game series where game 7 was decided by a mere 4 points. The Heat were able to keep that series competitive despite egregiously shooting only 41.6% from the field and 30% from deep. The only reason the Heats’ 106.6 offensive rating held up 7 games was because of their elite defense, as they were able to hold the Celtics to an 112.3 offensive rating. Two years earlier in 2020, the Heat got the better of the Celtics on their way to the finals. Back then playoff Butler was not as dominant, as it took a team effort for the Heat to win with 4 players averaging more than 19 ppg.
Even though the Celtics have regressed a bit from their finals run last season, we still expect them to come out on top this season again. Playoff Butler has cooled off a bit, and the Heat have been struggling offensively since their first round matchup. Obviously the Celtics were far from impressive against the 76ers, but they had their moments and still put up much better stats. Looking back to last years series where the Celtics came out on top, we expect this series to be just as close.
Why the Heat could still win:
The biggest difference between these teams from last years matchup is how many mistakes the Celtics have been making down the stretch of games. The loss of head coach Ime Udoka has been apparent, as late game adjustments have been lacking and turnovers have been plentiful. If these mistakes continue, and the Heat can level up their shooting from last round against the Knicks, we could witness even more history with the Heat making the NBA finals.
All-Star Analytics 