New York Knicks (5) vs Miami Heat (8)
Prediction: Heat win 4-2
Reasoning: The Miami Heat pulled off arguably the biggest upset in NBA history in Round 1. After losing Tyler Herro in game 1, and having Giannis miss half of game 1 and games 2 and 3, the Heat pulled off two improbable double-digit fourth-quarter comebacks to knock off the title favorites. The Heat did this off the back of yet another historic Jimmy Butler playoff masterpiece, this time scoring a staggering 37.6 points per game on 60% from the field and 44% from three. Miami’s defense also continued to impress, holding the Bucks to an 114.4 offensive rating. This was only the 6th time in history an 8-seed has upset the 1-seed, and now Miami matches up against the New York Knicks. The Knicks pulled off a similarly dominant win against the Cleveland Cavilers in 5 games, but a closer examination of the stats shows that the Knicks may not be as good as their victory indicates. The Cavs shoot 44.9% from the field and 32.7% from three over the course of the series, but the Knicks shot a worse 43.0% from the field and 28.2% from three, begging the question: how did the Knicks actually win? The answer to this lies in offensive rebounding. Despite the Cavs running the two-big lineup of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Knicks had an offensive rebounding rate of 34.9%, grabbing 75 offensive boards in only a 5 game series. This won’t prove as a good strategy against the Heat, who have playoff toughness and only gave up a 22.5% offensive rebounding rate to a similarly big team. As long as the Heat can continue to have a decent offense, their defense will hold up enough for playoff-Butler to reach yet another conference finals.
Boston Celtics (2) vs Philadelphia 76ers (3)
Prediction: Celtics win 4-1
Reasoning: The Celtics had a pretty worrying first round performance against the Hawks, letting the series be a bit too close and going all the way to game 6. The lack of clutch time adjustments led to some close losses, but ultimately the better team prevailed. Boston continued their dominant offense led by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, putting up a 120.8 offensive rating. Defensively they were able to hold Trae Young to some poor shooting performances, as he only went 40% from the field and 33% from deep on the entire series. The 76ers on the other hand had a dominant sweep over the Brooklyn Nets, but unfortunately an injury that MVP Joel Embiid sustained late in the series will carry into the first two games of this series. Because of this, we expect a close series to swing even more heavily in the Celtics’ favor. James Harden will have to be dominant to keep this series competitive, and based off his horrific display of finishing capabilities in the first round, this does not seem viable. Additionally, Embiid left a lot to be desired against the Nets, putitng up only 20 points per game on 46.2 | 12.5 | 95.8 splits. The Celtics are the title favorites for a reason, and historically Embiid and Harden have regressed in the playoffs, so we will pick the Celtics to win swiftly.
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