Denver Nuggets (1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
Prediction: Nuggets win 4-1
Reasoning: The Nuggets had a dominant season this year but finished off with a tough 7-10 record. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the Nuggets to have too much trouble yet. Their biggest issue down the stretch was defense, specifically pick and roll coverage with the slow-footed Nikola Jokic at center. However, the Timberwolves will likely be unable to exploit it as they’ve committed themselves to playing with two centers in Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns. This poor offensive dynamic already led to them having the 23rd-ranked offense in the league this season, and it won’t be easy to improve this against the Nuggets. On the other end, although the Timberwolves had the 10th-ranked defense in the league, the Nuggets had the 5th-ranked offense, and we expect them to win in a quick series.
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Prediction: Lakers win 4-2
Reasoning: This will be an extremely competitive series that could go either way, but we ultimately trust the Lakers because of their star-power and experience. After a rough 2-10 start to the season, the Lakers finished an impressive 41-29. On top of that, after revamping their team at the trade deadline, the Lakers finished the season 19-8, meaning they’re likely much stronger than a normal 7-seed. Style-wise, these teams are actually relatively similar, with both of them having strong defenses and weak half court offenses, and this trend will probably continue in the series. This is the playoffs, and when the games slow down and star power shines through, we expect LeBron James and Anthony Davis to outplay Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Sacramento Kings (3) vs Golden State Warriors (6)
Prediction: Warriors win 4-3
Reasoning: Just like the Grizzlies-Lakers series, this matchup also features two similar teams. In this case, both the Kings and Warriors have great offenses but weak defenses. The Kings managed the top-ranked offense this season, and it actually ranked first in NBA history. Meanwhile the Warriors were ranked 8th. On the other side of the court, the Warriors were ranked 17th in defense and the Kings 25th. The biggest issue for the Warriors this season has been their drastic differences as a team at home vs on the road. They were an amazing 33-8 at home, but a horrific 11-30 on the road. They’ve historically also been very strong at home in the playoffs. The Kings have home court advantage in this series, but the Warriors have won a road game in every playoff series in the Steve Kerr era, and we expect them to do so again in this series. At the end of the day, we expect the Warriors to win in a very close series because of their playoff pedigree and the fact that they are running it back with last year’s championship-winning team.
Phoenix Suns (4) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)
Prediction: Suns win 4-2
Explanation: The biggest factor in this matchup is the fact that Clippers star Paul George is expected to miss the entire series. This unfortunately will make it difficult for the Clippers to keep up with the starpower of the Suns. The Suns went all in by trading for Kevin Durant in the middle of the season, and the results looked promising, as they went 8-0 in games Durant played. They also have a strong core alongside Durant in Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. That said, a problem for the Suns is that outside of these four, the team lacks depth, as they traded it all away. On the other hand, the Clippers have plenty of depth, with Norman Powell, Terrence Mann, Bones Hyland, and Mason Plumlee all coming off the bench. Star-power usually matters more than depth, but this is something to watch for. Lastly, the Suns finished the season with the 15th ranked offense and 7th ranked defense, but we expect their offensive to drastically improve in the playoffs as they now have Kevin Durant. The Clippers, on the other hand, finished 17th on offense and 18th on defense in an injury-filled season, and they’ll need to improve on both of these in order to be competitive. Kawhi was able to carry the Clippers to a 9-5 record when Paul George was out, and he’ll need to keep this up and put up a historic performance to stop the Suns.
All-Star Analytics 