Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Miami Heat (8)
Prediction: Bucks win 4-1
Reasoning: As the top seed in the East, we don’t expect the Bucks to have too much trouble with the 8th-seeded Heat. They also have the best player in the series in Giannis, and that often is a recipe for success. The main reason to believe in the Heat would be that they upset the Bucks 4-1 in the 2020 playoffs. However, the Bucks swept the Heat 4-0 in the 2021 playoffs, and the biggest difference between those two Heat teams was the 3-point shooting. In 2020, the Heat were a top 5 shooting team, and in 2021, they were below average. Now, the Heat have fallen off even more, ranking 27th in the league in 3-point shooting, so based on previous matchups, things do not look good for them. Ultimately, we expect the Bucks’ 4th-ranked defense will slow down the Heat too much for this series to be very competitive.
Boston Celtics (2) vs Atlanta Hawks (7)
Prediction: Celtics win 4-0
Reasoning: Coming off of a Finals run last season, the Celtics continued to impress this season. Although they lost out on the top seed in the East, they still have a strong argument for being the best team in the conference, as they bolster the 2nd-ranked offense and 3rd-ranked defense in the league. The Hawks, on the other hand, have been far from impressive. Despite the addition of Dejounte Murray this offseason, they struggled all season and only rose up to the 7th seed at the last second. The Celtics are the only team in this matchup with championship aspirations, and we expect them to win convincingly.
Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs Brooklyn Nets (6)
Prediction: 76ers win 4-1
Reasoning: We don’t expect this series to pose many problems for the 76ers as they have the presumed MVP in Joel Embiid, and arguably also the second best player in the series in James Harden. This dynamic duo led them to the 4th-ranked offense in the league while still maintaining a top-10 defense spearheaded by Embiid. The Nets, however, have had a wild season. Beginning the season with goals of a championship run with a big 3 of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Ben Simmons, inner tumult led to the team trading Durant and Irving. After this trade deadline the Nets finished the season with a 12-15 record. Although the Nets still have Simmons, he looks like a shell of himself who lacks desire to play basketball, and they’re holding him out of the playoffs because of a supposed injury. While the Nets still have a promising future led by Mikal Bridges, their youth and lack of star power should make this an easy series for the 76ers.
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs New York Knicks (5)
Prediction: Cavaliers win 4-2
Reasoning: We expect this to be by far the closest series in the East, and one that could easily go either way. Ultimately, we lean towards the Cavaliers because of their defense. Headlined by the dominant defensive frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen, the Cavaliers led the league in defensive rating. At the same time, however, the Knicks had the 3rd-ranked offense in the league led by Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. While we think it’s more likely for the Cavaliers to sustain their defense than for the Knicks to sustain their offense, the Knicks will have a real chance. That said, the Knicks were below average on defense, and this is ultimately where we expect Donovan Mitchell to show out and win the series with his playoff experience.
All-Star Analytics 