In this post we’ll go over the NBA Finals, giving our prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to also check out our previous predictions for these playoffs, where we are 10/14 so far.
Golden State Warriors (3) vs Boston Celtics (2)
Prediction: Warriors win 4-2
Reasoning:
The NBA finals is officially set, and it will feature the Golden State Warriors, who are playing in their 6th finals in the past 8 years, and the Boston Celtics, who are playing their first finals with their young core.
To get here, the Warriors pulled off yet another impressive win in the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. Despite their lack of interior presence and Luka’s poor defense being potential weaknesses, the Mavs posted the 6th best defense in the league and even beat the #1 seeded Suns the round prior. However, the Warriors exploited the Mavs’ weaknesses in a way that no other team had managed to do. The Warriors’ motion offense, with constant off-ball movement and cuts, overwhelmed the Mavs’ perimeter defense, leading to a convincing series win in only 5 games. Additionally, despite struggling on offense in the regular season and being 17th ranked in the league, the Warriors offense put up an absurd 123.9 offensive rating against the Mavs, which would’ve been the highest of all time if held up for an entire season.
Defensively, the Warriors were a mixed bag. While the Mavs were only able to put up a 112.8 offensive rating during the regular season, they slightly outperformed this to post a 114.6 rating during their series with the Warriors. The Warriors had the #1 defense in the regular season, and even though the Mavs did well against them, the Mavs also did even better against the Suns’ #3-ranked defense, putting up a 116.8 offensive rating, meaning the Warriors defense was still good compared to its peers. The Warriors slowed down the Mavs’ most important producer, Luka Doncic, and even though he put up 32 points per game, it was on significantly poorer efficiency than previous rounds, as Luka only shot 41.5% from the field and 34% from three. The Warriors were also successful against the Mavs’ other players, holding them all below 20 points per game.
Offensively, the Warriors got high production from practically all their players, and even had a great offensive rating despite Steph not putting up insane averages. Steph averaged 23.8 ppg on 44.4% from the field and 43.9% from three, but he also put up 7.4 assist per game, helping his teammates get involved. Outside of him, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Klay Thompson all put up between 16 and 19 points per game, and Draymond Green and Kevon Looney both added another 10.6 points per game.
On the Celtics’ side of the bracket, they pulled off a much closer win over the Miami Heat. After the Celtics took a 3-2 lead, Miami forced a game 7 on its home court, and despite having a chance to take the lead at the end of the game, the Heat ultimately fell short. As expected, Miami’s offense struggled immensely, and this was made worse given that Tyler Herro, their second-leading scorer from the regular season, missed 3 games with injury, and didn’t appear to be 100% even when he returned. The Celtics held the Heat to an offensive rating of just 106.6, which would’ve been 27th in the league, and this speaks to the Celtics’ defensive strength, as they’ve had the #2-ranked defense in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Offensively, the Celtics struggled a bit against Miami’s stifling defense. They posted a 112.3 offensive rating, which would’ve been 18th in the league, and was well below their 7th ranked 114.4 regular season average. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led the way with 25 and 24.1 points per game on 46.2% and 48.8% from the field respectively., but the biggest issue for the Celtics’ regression offensively was their poor three point shooting. Despite the Heat’s aggressive defensive schemes, the Celtics shot a disappointing 34.9% from behind the arc. That said, their defense did an even better job than the Heat’s, as they held Miami to just 30% 3-point shooting.
The Celtics face a much more challenging task than Heats’ offense now that they face the Warriors. The Heat employ Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, both often playing plenty of minutes together, which leads to poor spacing and makes offensive sets much more difficult to run. On the other hand, the Warriors usually have at most one non-shooter on the court, and when that one is Draymond Green, he’s a constant threat for hand-off actions. Moreover, the Heat, and any team for that matter, don’t use as many off-ball actions as the Warriors. While the Heat might take players such as PJ Tucker and plant them in the corners, the Warriors will have these players constantly in motion. This led to the downfall of the Mavs defense, and it could easily have the same effect on the Celtics.
Defensively, the Warriors have several options. The main focus will be to slow down Jayson Tatum, and this is the perfect job for Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins had success against Doncic in the previous round, and Tatum is an easier assignment. On top of that, the Warriors could even allow Draymond or Thompson to slow him down on the perimeter, as both are good defenders.
The Celtics could try to attack Curry on defense given his smaller stature, but the Warriors showed great poise against this unrelenting attack by the Mavs. Whenever Curry was targeted in a pick-and-roll by Luka, they were able to show Curry until Wiggins could recover to Luka, and they did this with minimal consequences because of their strong defenders not being involved in the action.
The matchups will be different for the Warriors however, if the Celtics continue to go with size. With both Robert Williams and Al Horford starting, the Warriors could be forced to play Curry on Smart, Thompson on Brown, Wiggins on Tatum, Draymond on Horford, and Looney on Williams. With these starters, the Celtics could force the Warriors out of their small-ball lineup, but it would take strong play from both Horford and Williams to convince the Warriors to keep two non-shooters in for most of the game.
The Celtics will have an interior presence much stronger than the Mavs and will undoubtedly force adjustments, but given the Warriors strong defensive adjustments in the past and their playoff experience, they should be able to counter if Horford and Williams are actually able to dominate.
Also, part of the reason for the Celtics’ offensive woes at times during the Heat was due to their horrific turnovers. Errant passes were constant and led to a turnover percentage which would’ve ranked second worst among teams who made it out the first round. However, this won’t be too much of an issue, as the Warriors not only don’t force many turnovers, but also have their own turnover issues, as they were 3rd to last in the same group.
The interesting matchup will come defensively for the Celtics, with Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart guarding Steph Curry. This will be a tough matchup, and even if Smart holds up, the real question for the Celtics’ defense will be how they hold up against the constant off-ball motion. This will go both ways, as Curry will also likely guard Smart, who could easily be the x-factor in this series for the Celtics. When Smart attempts to play hero-ball, things tend to fall apart, but when he understands his role and knocks down his threes, the Celtics’ offense runs much better.
In terms of head-to-head matchups, the Warriors split with the Celtics. They won in December by 4 points, but then they lost to the Celtics by 22 in March after Curry went down in the second quarter due to an injury.
The biggest worry for the Celtics comes in their crunch time performances. Even though they’re the 6-4 in clutch time situations in the playoffs, they’ve posted an abysmal 94.7 offensive rating in these minutes, good for 12th out of the 16 teams in the playoffs. In fact, the reason for their favorable record is due to their first round series against the Nets, where they held the Nets to a much worse 58.8 offensive rating in the clutch. This won’t bode well against the Warriors however, who have a 121.5 offensive rating and are ranked 4th in the playoffs with a 5-2 record.
Lastly, experience is also on the Warriors’ side. This is the 6th finals for their core players, and they’ve been consistent on their road here. The Warriors have homecourt advantage, and they’ve also won every home game this playoffs. Additionally, they’ve won a road game in every playoff series they’ve played in for the past decade, and this will likely continue, as the Celtics are only 5-4 at home in these playoffs.
This is an NBA finals featuring the top two defenses in the league, and it’s likely that games will be close, and experience and clutch-time ability will become even more important. The Warriors have a noticeable advantage in both of these categories, and we expect them to become the 2022 NBA Champions.
Why the Celtics could still win:
The Celtics’ path to success will need to come from their bigs. Al Horford and Robert Williams will need to play well enough to force the Warriors to match with Green and Looney. This won’t even be enough on its own, however, as the Warriors have proven they can even be successful with that lineup. If the Celtics can force this lineup, they will also have to slow down the Warriors’ offense once two non-shooters are in play. The Mavs struggled against the Warriors bigs due to not being able to get rebounds, but the Celtics bigs should be able to do better.
A strong Celtics performance could also be made possible by good play from Marcus Smart. Not only will he need to play like the DPOY on Curry, but he’ll also need to play like a competent starting point guard on offense, avoiding ill-advised shots and minimizing his turnovers.
Ultimately, the Celtics have had a tough path to get to the finals, and it hasn’t deterred them yet. In each round, they’ve faced a top contender, and in each round, the Celtics defense has made the contender look like a shell of itself. The Warriors have the advantage in this matchup, but the Celtics could still win if they replicate their performances from previous rounds, so there is real upset potential here.
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