In this post we’ll go over the Western Conference Finals, giving our prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to also check out our previous predictions for these playoffs, where we are 9/12 so far, as well as our prediction for the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics.
Golden State Warriors (3) vs Dallas Mavericks (4)
Prediction: Mavericks win 4-3
Reasoning:
In a surprising conference finals matchup, the 3rd-seeded Warriors and 4th-seeded Mavs will face off. These two teams took different paths to get here however, with the Mavs pulling off upsets and the Warriors having strong wins.
The Dallas Mavericks began the playoffs without their superstar Luka Doncic against the Utah Jazz, and after torching the Jazz’s horrendous perimeter defense for a 6-game series win, they faced a tough challenge in their second round series against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns were by far the most dominant team in the regular season, winning 8 more games than any other team in the league. They held a top 5 offense and defense in the regular season, and even went up 2-0 in the series. However, after two big losses in Phoenix, the Mavs returned home to pick up two wins of their own, also winning by double digits each time. The Mavs hopes of staying alive were in jeopardy once again after Phoenix won game 5 in blowout fashion, but in a shocking turn of events, the Mavs not only took game 6 in a blowout, but also pulled off a historical game 7 win where they were even up by as much as 46 points.
The Warriors had a much easier path to the conference finals. They easily handled their matchup against the Nuggets, going up 3-0 and winning in 5, and then won a road game 1 against the Grizzlies, ultimately taking the series in 6. That said, against the Grizzlies the Warriors only won games 1 and 4 by 1 point and 3 points respectively, and Grizzlies star Ja Morant got injured in game 3 and missed the rest of the series.
A big question for the Mavs will be whether they’re able to keep up their dominant offense. Despite going up against an elite defensive squad in the Suns, which put a 107.3 defensive rating during the regular season (#3 in the league) and had DPOY runner-up Mikal Bridges, the Mavs torched the Suns for a 116.8 offensive rating, which would’ve ranked first in the league during the regular season. Their offensive attack was spear-headed by Luka Doncic, who put up 32.6 ppg, 9.9 rpg, and 7 apg per game on 47.6% shooting from the field. His ability to attack mismatches against smaller guards in the post as well as drive by or generate space on bigs in the perimeter made him a nightmare to cover on dense. Outside of Doncic, no one else averaged more than 19 points per game, and it was more so that different role players stepped up in certain games, including Brunson, Dinwiddie, Finney-Smith, and Kleber. The Warriors defense is slightly better than Suns, as it was #1 at a defensive rating of 106.9, but this shouldn’t be much of a difference compared to the Suns.
On top of this, the Mavs’ defense continued to hold up, as in the series they held Phoenix to a 113.4 offensive rating, which would’ve ranked 13th in the league. The main reason for the Mavs’ first two losses in the series was Luka’s egregious defensive performance, but after being continuously targeted by the Suns and being called out by his coach, Luka stepped up. The Mavs began aggressively doubling screens where Luka was involved, and other times Luka just put in more effort to stay in front of his man. Overall, this made a huge difference, as the Suns’ offensive rating fell to 105.4 during the last 5 games of the series, which would’ve been 28th in the league.
On the other hand, the stats in the Warriors’ series were much closer, as both the Warriors’ and Grizzlies’ defenses stepped up: the Warriors’ offensive rating was a mere 109.8, and the Grizzlies’ wasn’t far behind and 109.2. The Warriors had the #1 ranked defense during the regular season and the Grizzlies were 4th, which makes sense given the results for the series. Offensively for the Warriors, Curry led the way with 26 ppg, but it was only on a mere 41.3% shooting from the field. While no one else put up more than 20 ppg, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins all put up at least 15. Klay Thompson has struggled, however, as he seems to have a lost a step on the defensive end as well as some inconsistency with his outside shot, as he shot only 40% from the field against the Grizzlies.
Defensively, the Warriors were unable to slow down Morant in the three games he played, as he put up an incredible 38.3 ppg on 50.6% shooting from the field. However, once he got injured, the Warriors never had to slow down one star in particular.
The fact that Morant flourished when he played could be problematic for the Warriors, as Doncic is even more so of an offensive threat. It will be interesting to see who the Warriors will use to try to slow down Luka, but regardless of who they pick, the Mavs will force their way into preferrable matchups with switches, as they’ve done in the first two rounds. If the Warriors choose to go big and play Looney, the Mavs can match that and play Kleber or Powell, who handled much more dominant bigs in the prior rounds. On the other hand, if the Warriors choose to go small and have Draymond be the biggest defender on the court, the Mavs won’t mind this either, as they can put in shooting bigs like Bertans or Kleber. Even though Bertans is a defensive liability, he’ll be guarding Draymond, who isn’t much of a threat, and Kleber is already a very good defender, so he shouldn’t have any issues. If Curry is in the game, he’ll likely be matched up against Jalen Brunson, who has continued to be a solid secondary player along Doncic. Against the Suns he put up 18 ppg on 45% shooting, and a lot of that damage came in the paint. We expect him to continue this trend by attacking Curry’s relatively weak defense. Similarly, Doncic will be hunting mismatches on Curry to bruise him in the post.
On the other end, the Mavs can attempt to lessen Doncic’s load by putting him on Draymond at times, but the Warriors will continue to use a lot of handoff actions to attack this. However, this is where the Mavs can once again either double the ball handler, which in this case would be more effective given that Draymond isn’t too much of a threat in a short roll, or just have Doncic hedge until the other defender recovers. This second approach was also very successful against the Suns and the strong defenders around Doncic made this method solid.
Another contrast between these two teams is their large difference in pace. While the Mavs had the 30th ranked pace in the league during the regular season and 14th ranked in the playoffs, the Warriors had the 13th in the regular season and the 4th in the playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see if the Warriors can adjust to the slower pace of game, and this could be a potential challenge for them.
In head-to-head matchups this year, the Mavs won 3/4, all occurring in this calendar year. In their first win, Klay Thompson didn’t play; in the second, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson didn’t play; and in the third, Draymond didn’t play. In the Warriors’ only win Draymond Green didn’t play, but it was prior to the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
Doncic will have a favorable matchup throughout the series, and given that Jason Kidd has shown his elite coaching ability to make adjustments and beat out the Suns on the defensive end, we expect similar expertise to slow down the Warriors once again. The Warriors are a deeper team, but the Mavs have the best player in the series and have shown a better ability to win in close games, as shown by their 7th ranked clutch game win rate opposed to the Warriors 11th ranked. In the end the series will be close, but we predict the Mavs will make an appearance in the NBA Finals.
Why the Warriors could still win:
The Warriors have a lot of postseason experience under their belts, as well as a great coach in Steve Kerr. If Kerr is able to make the right defensive adjustments to slow down Doncic a bit they could easily win the series. Additionally the Warriors will need to perform much better on offense despite facing a comparable defense to the Grizzlies. Their shooting struggles will need to subside, and they’ll need to force the Mavs into a few shooting struggles of their own. The Warriors haven’t lost a Western Conference playoff series since 2014, and given that they’re fully healthy, there is very real upset potential here.
All-Star Analytics 