In this post we’ll go over each of the Western Conference second round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to also check out our first round predictions where we went 7/8.
Phoenix Suns (1) vs Dallas Mavericks (4)
Prediction: Suns win 4-3
Reasoning:
In the First Round, the Suns beat an up-and-coming New Orleans Pelicans team in a 6-game series that was much closer than many expected. Part of this was due to their star Devin Booker missing 3 games, but the Pelicans were still competitive even when he played. The Suns won 2 of the 3 with him, and this still could’ve easily only have been 1 of 3 had it not been for an all time great performance from Chris Paul.
The Mavericks had to deal with an even bigger injury in the First Round series against the Utah Jazz. Star Luka Doncic missed the first 3 games, and the Mavs still managed to get off to a 2-1 start before ultimately winning 4-2. The Mavs defense was elite throughout the series, holding the Jazz’s top ranked offense to an offensive rating 7.4 points lower than what they produced in the regular season (this would’ve ranked 26th in the league). On the other end the Mavs thrived against the Utah’s poor perimeter defense, stretching the court with shooters and posting an offensive rating which would’ve been ranked 3rd in the regular season (they were only 15th in the regular season).
Phoenix also had a great offense in their series, and despite standout defensive performances from Pelicans players Jose Alvarado and Herbert Jones, the Suns put up an offensive rating of 120.3, which would’ve been the best of all time if sustained for a whole season. However, the Pelicans defense as whole wasn’t that great, as it only ranked 20th in the regular season. The Suns are still poised to pose many problems for the Mavs’ defense though, as they have 4+ competent offensive players. Against the Jazz, the Mavs could afford to leave Jazz center Gobert with obvious mismatches, knowing he was relatively incapable of taking advantages of them and that worst case they could just foul him. However, the Suns employ a more dominant force at center: Deandre Ayton. Ayton made light work of the Pelicans defense, putting up an amazing 20.5 ppg and 9.8 rpg on 70% shooting, which was much better than Gobert’s 12.0 ppg on 64% shooting.
There are also potential issues for the Mavs on the offensive end. Against the Jazz, Luka Doncic and breakout star Jalen Brunson were able to blow by all the defense on the perimeter, force Jazz centered Gobert to rotate off his man and help in the interior, and then kick it out to wide open 3-point shooters. The result was the Mavericks shooting 42 3’s per game, which was more than any team did in the regular season, and converting them at 37.1% from three, which would’ve ranked 4th in the league. This was a huge step up from the regular season, where the Mavs’ 3-point shooting efficiency was only 19th in the league. The Suns will be a much tougher matchup, as they’ll be harder to exploit, and they had the #3 overall defense and #4 3-point defense in the league this season. Luka will likely be good regardless, but this could potentially be concerning for Jalen Brunson, who put up 27.8 ppg against the Jazz after only averaging 16.3 ppg in the regular season. He was a second star next to Luka against the Jazz, but the Suns could potentially force him back into a lesser role.
The other interesting matchup comes with Ayton. Although Gobert was leaving players open the the perimeter, he was effective at the rim, and Doncic seemed reluctant to put up any shots in the paint with Gobert nearby. Luckily for the Mavs, Ayton isn’t nearly as dominant defensively and should allow for Doncic to finish more drives at the rim.
In head-to-head matchups this year, the Suns won all 3, but that doesn’t tell the full story. The first two wins were by 7 and 8, but Doncic played in neither game. Luka did play in the 3rd game, and the Suns won by 8, but this was still before the Mavs improved their team at the trade deadline with the Porzingis trade.
The Suns were better in the regular season, but it’s clear that there are plenty of reason to believe the matchup will be closer than the records suggest. Both teams were involved in several close games in the first round, and that trend will probably continue this series. In games that were within 5 points with under 5 minutes remaining at some point, the Mavs were 22-16, struggling somewhat as their offense tended to stagnate. The Suns on the other hand were a league best 33-9, and given that we expect these types of games in this series, the Suns seem to have the advantage here.
We expect a close series, but given that the Suns were better overall and especially in close games this season, we’re giving them the edge in this matchup.
Why the Mavs could still win:
The Mavs’ biggest strength is on the defensive end, and although they won’t be able to employ the same scheme against the Suns as the did for the Jazz, they have plenty of time to design a new one. The Suns had the #4 offense in the league this season, but the Jazz were #1 and the Mavs showed they were capable of stopping it. The Mavs’ perimeter defense was especially impressive, as they held Donovan Mitchell, the Jazz’s primary scoring option, to 25.5 points on 39.8% from the field and 20.8% from three. Additionally, they held the league’s top ranked 3 point attempt team to 10 less threes per game on only 27.4% from behind the arc. Beating the Suns will require strong defense, and the Mavs have shown they’re capable of this.
The Mavs will also have the best player in the series in Luka Doncic. If he can continue his post-season dominance and the Mavs can replicate their defensive performance from the Jazz, there will be very real potential for an upset here.
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Golden State Warriors (3)
Prediction: Warriors win 4-2
Reasoning:
The Warriors dominated their first round matchup against the Denver Nuggets, winning in 5 games. Against a week Nuggets defense, the Warriors put up an absurd 123.1 offensive rating, which would’ve ranked highest all time by a very large margin. This was a huge step up considering the Warriors’ offense was only the 17th best this regular season. That said, they also had the #1 defense in the regular season, and this was unable to hold up, as the Nuggets put up a 114.7 offensive rating, which was 0.2 better than their regular season average. The Warriors also managed to slow down but ultimately not stop Nikola Jokic, as he averaged 31.0 points per game on 57.5% shooting.
The Grizzlies won a much closer series in the first round in 6 games against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves blew multiple 20+ point leads, even though the Timberwolves had a +29 point differential over the course of the series in the first 3 quarters, they blew double-digit 4th quarter leads in 3 of the 4 games they lost. On the Grizzlies side of things, there wasn’t much to get excited about. Their center Steven Adams was played off the court almost immediately, and star Ja Morant was also slowed down. Ja still had good averages of 21.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg, and 10.5 apg, but he did so on highly inefficient 38.6% shooting from the field and 20% from three. This was a big step down from the regular season where Ja averaged 27.4 ppg on 49.3% from the field and 34.4% from 3. The Grizzlies were carried by their emerging young star, Desmond Bane, who actually led the team in scoring, putting up 23.5 ppg on extremely efficient 49.5% shooting from the field and 48.2% from the field. This was also all against a Minnesota defense which only ranked 13th in the league this season.
On the offensive end, the Warriors will likely take a step back against the Grizzlies, as they had the 4th best defense during the regular season, while the Nuggets were only 15th. That said, things won’t be easy for the Grizzlies on defense either. They’ll be matched up against an extremely spaced out offense, requiring that all their defenders are competent at all times, as every Warriors player other than Draymond is a scoring threat. They’ll also have to deal with the fact that their best defender, Jaren Jackson Jr. has struggled a lot with foul trouble. Against the Timberwolves he only averaged 24 minutes per game, as he amassed 31 fouls over the 6 game series. If the Warriors are able to force him off the court, the Grizzlies will probably struggle interiorly and will be subjected to lots of drives.
On the other end of the court the Warriors will have to have a better performance defensively. The Grizzlies’ 5th ranked offense was barely better than the Nuggets’ 6th ranked offense this season, but the Warriors’ #1 defense matches up better against the Grizzlies. This is because the Nuggets were carried by their center Jokic, and since the Warriors don’t usually don’t even play a true center most of the time, this created problem for them. However, the Grizzlies have a much more balanced attack and are led by two guards, which should play more to the Warriors’ strengths.
Another key reason for the Grizzlies’ first round victory was their rebounding. The Grizzlies were 1st in offensive rebound in the regular season and the Timberwolves were 27th in defensive rebounding, so this was a huge factor in favor of the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies pulldown nearly 13 offensive rebounds per game, which gave them many extra chances and helped make the difference in close games. However, the Warriors won’t play into this as they were 2nd in defensive rebounding this season, meaning much of the advantage should be dissipated. The Grizzlies also play at an extremely high pace, and this worked well for them in the first round due to the Timberwolves doing the same. However, the Warriors had the 14th ranked pace this year, and the pace they played at against the Nuggets would’ve ranked 29th. Typically, high pace teams struggle when the game slows down in the half-court as they’re used to dominating in fast-breaks, and this is another area where the Warriors could force the Grizzlies to be worse.
As for head-to-head matchups, the Warriors struggled: they lost by 3 in overtime without Thompson, then they won by 9 without Thompson, they lost by 6 without Draymond, and finally lost by 28 without Curry, Draymond, and Thompson. That said, the Warriors have Curry, Thompson, and Draymond all healthy now.
The teams were equally good in the regular season, but all signs point to the Warriors having a significant advantage in the playoffs, and we expect them to win without too much difficulty.
Why the Grizzlies could still win:
Ja Morant will need some extreme improvements as he struggled from the field against the Timberwolves. This might not be far-fetched given that he’s an explosive player who likes to attack the basket, and the Warriors don’t really play a rim-protector. Additionally, the Grizzlies’ defense will need to find a way to slow down the Warriors sharp-shooting offense, and offensively they’ll need to attack the Warriors when they have weaker defensive lineups in. Ultimately, the teams were very close to each other in the regular season, and although there seems to be a big difference in the playoffs, it’s only been 5 or 6 games for each team. There’s a chance the Grizzlies could revert to their old selves, so there is some upset potential here.
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