In this post we’ll go over each of the Eastern Conference second round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to also check out our first round predictions where we went 7/8.
Miami Heat (1) vs Philadelphia 76ers (4)
Prediction: Heat win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
The Heat dominated their first round matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, winning 4-1 on the backs of their suffocating defense. While the Hawks had the second best offense in the league during the regular season, the Heat held them to a mere 102.6 offensive rating, a number that was 13.9 less than their regular season average and would’ve ranked dead-last. Hawks star Trae Young was completely stopped by the Heat, averaging only 15.4 points on 31.9% shooting from the field and 18.4% from 3 while averaging more turnovers than assists. Meanwhile on the offensive end the Heat got contributions at various points from everyone on their deep roster. Ultimately though, Jimmy Butler led the way, averaging 30.5 points on 54.3% shooting from the field and 43.8% from 3, taking full advantage of the Hawks’ 26th ranked defense.
On the other hand, the 76ers struggled in their first round series against the Toronto Raptors. After winning in overtime in game 3 to take a 3-0 lead, the 76ers let the Raptors make it 3-2 before ultimately winning. Embiid was dominant against the Raptors strong defense, primarily because of their lack of a true center to slow him down. Meanwhile, Maxey, Harden, and Harris all thrived in their supportive roles on decent efficiency.
The biggest concern for this series on the 76ers’ side are the injuries Embiid sustained in the first round. Initially he suffered a tear in his thumb, which he played through, but in game 6 he fractured his orbital bone, which means he’ll likely miss at least a game or two. Embiid has been the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, so missing him will be costly.
The Heat had their own injury concerns as well, as Lowry missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and Butler missed the final game with a knee injury. Despite this, the Heat seemed relatively unfazed, as they were able to plug in Victor Oladipo and others and sustain their production as ultimately they’re a more balanced team.
If Embiid doesn’t play at all this series, the 76ers don’t have much of a chance, as they really don’t have any interior presence without him. Their best back-up centers are Paul Reed and DeAndre Jordan, and neither has played any big minutes until now. This should allow the Heat’s star big man, Bam Adebayo, to dominate on the inside. Additionally, it will make it easier for Butler to do what he does best: drive and draw fouls. Defensively, the Heat will also thrive as they are able to switch any screen and still slow down the primary ball-handler. This is what led to Young struggling immensely in the first round, as there was no defender he could attack, and it will likely be the same fate for Harden and Maxey this round too.
If Embiid does play, the matchups become more interesting. Bam Adebayo is one of the best defenders in the league and would be tasked with the responsibility of slowing Embiid down. This should be doable, as the 10th ranked Raptors’ defense was able to hold Embiid, who averaged 30.6 ppg in the regular season, to 26.2 ppg in their series. The Heat’s 5th ranked defense is both better overall and has the better players specifically for guarding Embiid. Outside of that, the Heat’s perimeter defense is elite and would make it so that the 76ers likely won’t get many other contributions outside of Embiid. If the Heat could slow down the Hawks’ #2, they should be able to do the same to the 76ers’ #11 offense.
In terms of head-to-head matchups, the teams were 2-2 in the regular season. One loss for the Heat came by 7 points in an embarrassing game where the 76ers rested Harden and Embiid. Outside of this, the Heat won by 17; won by 5 without Butler, Herro, and Bam; and lost by 11 without Bam.
We think there’s potential for a close series, especially if Embiid plays, but given the current uncertainty surrounding his health we expect the Heat to win without too much difficulty.
Why the 76ers could still win:
Jimmy Butler has been leading the Heat recently, but his hot hand is not sustainable. Although he shot 42% from three on 3 attempts per game in the last 8 games of the regular season and 44% from 3 on 4 attempts per game in the first round, his regular season averages tell a different story. Butler’s never been a good outside shooter, and overall, he only averaged an abysmal 23% from 3 on 2 attempts per game. If he slows down the matchup will suddenly become a lot closer. There is also some uncertainty with the Heat’s stars’ health, and this could help offset the injury to Embiid, at least in the beginning. The 76ers are the more talented team, and there is very real upset potential here if Embiid is able to play.
Boston Celtics (2) vs Milwaukee Bucks (3)
Prediction: Bucks win 4-2
Reasoning:
Among remaining teams, the Celtics faced arguably had the toughest matchup as they faced the Brooklyn Nets, which were favored to win the championship coming into the season. The Celtics rose up to the challenge, as they not only won, but also were the only team to win 4-0 in the first round. However, the series was close throughout, as the Celtics won by margins of 1, 7, 6, and 4, and the Nets had 4th quarter leads in the 3 of the 4 games. The main reason for the Celtics’ success was their physical defense, and they were able to severely slow down both Nets stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Although they were expected to take a huge step up and carry the load, KD averaged just 26.3 ppg on 38.6% shooting from the field and 33.3% from 3, and Kyrie averaged 21.3 ppg on 44.4% shooting from the field and 38.1% from 3. That said, even though the Nets’ stars took a significant step back from their regular season production, the Nets’ offensive rating was still 117.1, which was better than their offensive rating of 115.8 in games where Durant played in the regular season.
Despite taking one more game, the Bucks had a much easier time in the first round against the Chicago Bulls. The struggled in the first two games, which has become a recurring theme throughout the last few years for them, but then dominated after that, winning the last 3 games by a combined 70 points. The big issue for the Bucks is that Giannis’ co-star, Khris Middleton, missed the rest of the series after being injured in game 2, and he will likely miss the entirety of this series as well. In light of this injury, the Bucks’ offense will need to continue stepping up in Middleton’s absence. They were able to do this in the 3 games he missed against the Bulls, but this will be harder against the Celtics, as their #2 ranked defense is much better than the Bulls’ 22nd ranked defense.
The interesting aspect of this series are the defensive matchups on each side. For the Celtics it will come with how they defend Giannis. They have a few potential defenders, which has been a successful approach in the past. Jayson Tatum, Robert Williams, Grant Williams, and Al Horford will all spend time on him, and just as they did to slow down Durant, plenty of double teams will be sent. The issue for the Celtics, though, is that this defensive effort likely won’t be nearly as effective as it was on Durant. While KD relies on high post touches to get midrange jumpers with his lanky weak frame, Giannis is a dominant force who’s much stronger and can get downhill at the rim with much more ease, meaning he’ll probably experience less of a dropoff. Additionally, the Celtics will be able to employ the defensive player of the year, Marcus Smart, on Jrue Holiday. Last year, during the Bucks’ championship run, Holiday was extremely inconsistent offensively, so it’s somewhat worrying that they’ll have to rely more on him this series without Middleton.
On the Bucks side of things they had the 14th ranked defense, but much of this is due to center Brook Lopez only playing 13 games this season. The Bucks’ defense has been much better in previous seasons, and with his return the Bucks should return to their regular form. Giannis will play his role guarding either Horford or Williams, allowing him to roam freely around the paint and effect others when they drive. The main issue for the Bucks on this end is that they don’t have a great matchup for Celtics star forwards Tatum and Brown. Ultimately they’ll probably play Holiday, who’s an elite perimeter defender, on Tatum. The potential downside for this is that Tatum has a larger frame, so he could take advantage in the post, but with the Bucks’ elite interior presence in Lopez and Giannis, they should be fine.
Additionally, the Celtics’ offense was strong against the Nets based on the fact that they could seek matchups against almost anyone on the team, but this will be much more difficult against the Bucks’ defense.
In head-to-head games the teams split 2-2: the Bucks lost once in overtime by 9 without Giannis and Middleton and another time by 14; then they won by 6 without Tatum playing and by 4 with everyone healthy.
Another thing to consider is that many of the games could end up being close, and although the Celtics seemed strong against the Nets, they struggled in this area during the regular season. In games that were within 5 points in the final 5 minutes they were 29th in win percentage, going 13-22, while the Bucks were elite, finishing 6th with a 24-7 record.
Going purely off the numbers, the Celtics are the better team, and they also have health on their side. That said, the Bucks are defending champions and have arguably the best player in the NBA on their team, so we expect them to win a close series.
Why the Celtics could still win:
A lot of the advanced stats point to the Celtics having a superior team: the highest SRS in the league, 2nd highest defensive rating, and 7th highest offensive rating. What it’ll take for the Celtics to win is that the Bucks’ offense will need to struggle to generate looks without Middleton, as at times they rely heavily on him to create. Additionally the Celtics defense will need to be able to throw enough defenders to Giannis to slow him down. Offensively Tatum and Brown will need to preform at a high level and likely hunt favorable matchups to take advantage of. This is a very close series to call, and there is very real “upset” potential here.
All-Star Analytics 