In this post we’ll go over each of the Eastern Conference First Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Phoenix Suns (1) vs New Orleans Pelicans (8)
Prediction: Suns win 4 – 0
Reasoning:
After finishing last season with a disappointing loss in the finals, the Suns decided to run it back without making any changes, and they ended up with an even better regular season than last time. Winning 64 games, the Suns were dominant throughout the season, finishing with the 4th ranked offense, 3rd ranked defense, best net rating, and best record in the league. They’re also significant favorites to win it all according to betting markets.
The Pelicans took a very different path to the playoffs. Missing their young star Zion Williamson for the entirety of the season, they started 1-11 but managed to turn things around, and after acquiring CJ McCollum from the Pelicans, they were able to make a late season push and qualify for the play-in tournament. After winning back-to-back elimation games, they managed to get the 8th seed, completing their unlikely run to the playoffs. Unfortunately, their journey looks like it will end here. They only have the 19th ranked offense, 13th ranked defense, and 21st net rating. They don’t particularly excel at anything and they don’t have any real way to slow down the star backcourt in Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
This is a pretty lopsided matchup, and we expect the Suns to win with ease.
Why the Pelicans could still win:
One thing that could improve the Pelicans’ chances would be the Suns having a drop off in efficiency. Ultimately, the Suns are a jump-shooting team, as they led the league this year in shots from 10-16 feet and were 6th in 2-point shots from over 16 feet. Even though they’ve been really efficient with these shots, they’re still generally considered bad shots, and both Booker and Paul have shown their capable of going cold in a given game. That said, the one thing that would really give the Pelicans a chance would be Zion Williamson returning, as he’s shown he’s capable of being the best player in this series. There’s currently reports that there are disagreements between him and the team about whether or not he’s healthy enough to play, so a return isn’t completely impossible.
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves(7)
Prediction: Grizzlies win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
The Memphis Grizzlies were arguably the biggest positive surprise of the season. After qualifying through the play-in tournament to get the 8th seed last season and losing in the first round in 5 games, the Grizzlies chose to run it back, and purely through improvement of their young they came back way stronger, finishing with the second best record in the league. Young star Ja Morant emerged as an elite player, averaging 27/6/7 in his third season in the league. Still, the Grizzlies were dominant even in the time he missed, and their astonishing 20-5 when Ja Morant didn’t play highlights how balanced, deep, and consistent the team was able to be this season.
Similar to the Grizzlies, the Timberwolves came into the season with relatively low expectations, having missed the playoffs last season and not having any first round picks. Still they managed to have a breakout season, and led by improvements from Towns, Edwards, and Russell, the Timberwolves qualified for the playoffs for only the 2nd time in 18 years.
On paper, the stats don’t look promising for the Timberwolves, as their 8th ranked offense is outmatched by the Grizzlies’ 5th ranked, and their 13th ranked defense doesn’t compare to the Grizzlies’ 4th ranked. The Grizzlies have thrived as a high pace team all season (3rd in the NBA), and while that may struggle in the playoffs against slower teams, this won’t be an issue with the Timberwolves, who had the highest pace in the league. Additionally, the Grizzlies have benefitted from their first ranked offensive rebound percentage, and this will be problematic for the Timberwolves who were ranked 4th to last in defensive rebounding percentage.
Overall, the Grizzlies have been incredibly consistent throughout the season, and we expect them to win without too much trouble.
Why the Timberwolves could still win:
Although the Timberwolves were the worse team this season, the matchup is far from hopeless. The Timberwolves showed their capable of beating the Grizzlies in the regular season, as they went 2-2 in their head-to-head games. Also, the Timberwolves shoot the second most threes in the league, so it’s possible they could get hot for a few games. Ultimately, there’s an argument to be made that the Timberwolves are the more talented team on paper, and given that neither team has significant playoff experience, there is some minor upset potential with this matchup.
Golden State Warriors (3) vs Denver Nuggets (6)
Prediction: Warriors win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
After missing the playoffs in back-to-back years, the Warriors have returned and look like they’re finally going to be healthy. Stars Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all missed significant time this season, but they’re all expected to play this season, and the Warriors are 16-0 in playoff series in which these 3 players have started every game.
Like the Warriors, the Nuggets suffered from significant injuries throughout the year, but theirs continue to persist. Star guard Jamal Murray missed the whole season recovering from an ACL tear, and the team’s up-and-coming co-star Michael Porter Jr. suffered season-ending back injury early on. The team had to rely on their star center Nikola Jokic to carry them once again, and he did just that, averaging 27/14/8 and putting up the best advanced stats in the league while leading his team to the playoffs and (almost surely) winning his second straight MVP award.
Although the Warriors are only the third seed, they’ve actually been more dominant when everyone has been healthy. They went 29-7 in games where Curry and Green played, a pace that would’ve been good enough for the best record in the league had it been sustained throughout the season.
Defensively the Nuggets were average, ranking 15th over the course of the entire season, but they fell off to a horrific 26th in the last 15 games, and they’ll need to revert back to their old defensive ways if they want to slow the Warriors down. That said, the Warriors did have some uncharacteristic struggles on offense this season, and combined with injuries and a shooting slump with Curry, they finished only 17th in the league.
Where the Warriors set themselves apart this year was on the defensive end, where they finished 2nd in the league. The Nuggets did have the 6th ranked offense, but they struggled against the league’s top teams, and given that the Nuggets have no other stars around Jokic, the Warriors should be able to focus most of their attention towards him and come up with a scheme to slow him down.
The Warriors are arguably the best team in the league when healthy, and we expect them to win without much difficulty.
Why the Nuggets could still win:
This matchup represents a clash of styles, with the Warriors being famous for their small ball lineups that prioritize spacing the floor over playing traditional centers, and the Nuggets being a team who’s best player is a center. Jokic’s will probably be guarded by Draymond Green or Kevon Looney. If Looney guards him, Jokic will need to be a playmaker and space the floor. If instead the Warriors go small and have Draymond at center guarding Jokic, he’ll have to take advantage of his size and be agressive in the post. The Warriors have had a below average offense this season, so the Nuggets do have hope if they’re able to win the battle on the offensive end against the elite Warriors defense. Although we disagree, the media believes Jokic is the best player in the NBA, and this is the perfect chance for him to prove it.
Dallas Mavericks (4) vs Utah Jazz (5)
Prediction: Mavericks win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
The Mavs underwent major changes under their new coach Jason Kidd this season. After having a historically great offense only 2 seasons ago but failing to make it out of the first round, the Mavs chose to shift their focus to defense, finishing with the 7th ranked defense in the league, a major improvement from prior seasons. They also chose to move on from Kristaps Porzingis, replacing him with guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who’s been able to play off-ball and be a scoring threat when Luka gets double teamed. That said, the main constant on the team was Luka Doncic, who continued dominate and make his case for best player in the league, putting up averages of 28/9/9 and earning his team home court advantage in the first round. However, he strained his calf in the final game of the regular season and it’s now unclear when he’ll return. Luka has already been ruled out for game 1, and there’s concern for his availability in game 2 and beyond. Luka had the highest usage rate in the NBA in this season, so playing without him will be a big adjustment to make, and could enable the Jazz to take an early lead in the series.
The Jazz come into this series with a lot on the line after having a regular season that fell well below expectations. They finished with the best record in the NBA just one season ago before blowing a 2-0 lead in the playoffs, and although they brought back their key players, an inability to close games caused them to fall all the way to 5th seed.
The Jazz are normally known for defense as they have 3-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert on their team, but their defense was actually only ranked 10th this season, and there’s potential for the Mavs to exploit them here. In their head-to-head games in the regular season, the Mavs were able to attack Gobert by spacing the floor and forcing him out of his comfort zone and into the perimeter. Luka was able to consistently draw double teams in the lane off of pick-and-rolls, generating open threes for his teammates. The Jazz experienced this issue in last year’s playoffs as well, and they were burned when they tried to solve it by letting Rudy Gobert sag off his man and stay in the paint, as it allowed open 3’s and lanes to drive. The Jazz have a potential weakness on defense, and Luka is the perfect playmaker and scorer to exploit it.
On the other end of the court the Jazz have the #1 offense in the league, and they lead the league in three point attempts per game. The rate at which the Jazz hit 3’s will likely have a significant impact on this series, but there’s reason for the Mavs to be optimistic, as they allowed the 4th lowest 3-point shooting percentage in the league.
Doncic has continued to impress in the playoffs and elevate his play, as he’s currently the all-time leader in playoffs points per game. If he’s able to play at the level he’s played in previous playoffs, the Mavs should have the upper hand once he returns. The series could come down to whether or not the Mavs are able to win any games without Luka, and this should be possible.
The Jazz have struggled all season in close games and in holding on to leads, as they have a -6.2 net rating in the 4th quarter alone. They also blew a 2-0 lead in last year’s playoffs and a 3-1 lead the year before that. It’s not hard to imagine the Jazz blowing a game or two this series, and that can end up being the difference.
We think the Mavericks can keep things competitive and steal a game without Luka, and if he’s able to return in time, he should carry them the rest of the way and pull off a close victory.
Why the Jazz could still win:
The easiest way for the Jazz to win would be for Luka to not play. If he ends up missing at least two games the Jazz would have a big chance to go home up 2-0, where they’d be poised to potentially end the series or at least get a 3-1 lead even if Luka returns. Additionally, the Jazz have one of the best playoff performers on their team. Similar to Luka, Donovan Mitchell has proven to elevate his play in the postseason, if he can continue to do this, the Mavs could be in trouble. Also, even though the Mavs finished with the better record, this was mainly due to the Jazz blowing close games. In terms of pure strength, the Jazz had the 3rd best net rating in the NBA at +6.2, which was well ahead of Dallas’ 7th best mark of +3.5. The Jazz have enough firepower to make this a close series even if Luka plays, so given that his status is still up in the air, the Jazz have major chances to pull off the “upset”.
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