In this post we’ll go over each of the Eastern Conference First Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Miami Heat (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (8)
Prediction: Heat win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
After the losing in the finals in 2020, the Heat had a disappointing season last year, finishing with the 6th seed and getting swept in the first round. Still, they chose to go all-in this year by trading for point guard Kyle Lowry, and it paid off, as they finished with the best record in the East, earning themselves what appears to be the easiest path to the finals for any eastern conference contender.
While the Heat had their best season in recent memory, the same cannot be said about the Hawks. Following their impressive run to the conference finals last season, the Hawks took a major step back, and it took them winning back-to-back elimination games in the play-in tournament just to qualify for the playoffs.
The Heat dominance this year was mainly due to their 4th ranked defense, which along with their 12th ranked offense gave them the 6th best net rating in the league. This was all done in spite of Butler missing 25 games, Lowry missing 19 games, Bam missing 26 games, and Herro missing 16 games. On the other hand, the Hawks struggled all year despite having the 2nd ranked offense in the league, and this was due to their defense ranking 26th, which combined only led to a 14th ranked net rating. There’s good reason to believe that the Heat can slow the Hawks down, but there’s no reason to believe the Hawks can slow the Heat down.
The Heat have been a significantly better team this season, and they should win without much difficulty.
Why the Hawks could still win:
One potential weakness in the Heat’s defense is that they give up the second most threes per game, and although they allow the 3rd worst efficiency from their opponents, it does give the Hawks the opportunity get hot. The Hawks did have the second highest 3-point percentage in the league this season, so they do have the potential to win on this front. Also, the Hawks have Trae Young, who’s the best player in the series and capable of single-handled carrying his team. He put up averages of 28/4/10 this year, and in last year’s playoffs he was able to lift the Hawks past more talented teams and into the conference finals thanks to his own heroics. The Heat are clearly the better team, but the Hawks have the best player in the series, and that means they at least have a chance.
Boston Celtics (2) vs Brooklyn Nets (7)
Prediction: Nets win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
When these team faced each other in last year’s first round, the Nets won 4-1. However, much has changed since then, and this time, instead of the Nets being the 2-seed and the Celtics being the 7-seed, the Celtics are #2 and the Nets are #7.
The Nets came into the season as the favorites to win it all, with a big 3 of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. However, they struggled getting everyone on the court together, as for the first half of the season Kyrie didn’t play at all. Additionally, even when Kyrie returned midway through the season, he wasn’t allowed to play in home games. Harden also struggled and was traded midway through the season for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond, and although Curry and Drummond made good contributions, Simmons still hasn’t played yet. Still, Durant was able to carry the team and keep them as a top seed, but an injury to him midway through the season led the Nets into free fall, causing them to even fall out of the top-8 at one point. However, near the end of the season, Durant was able to return and Kyrie was granted permission to play home games, and this allowed the Nets to finish strong in the last few games.
The Celtics took a very different path, looking like they were in for another disappointing season after starting off 23-24, but they managed to turn things around, finishing 28-7 as the hottest team in the league. They were so dominant during this stretch, that advanced stats actually indicate they’re the best team in the league.
The Celtics have thrived off having the #1 defense in the league this season, in which they rely on a switch-heavy scheme. This could however lead to some issues, as KD and Kyrie could be able to more easily target preferable matchups. Offensively, the Celtics are an above average playoff team, but nothing jumps out as particularly special. Tatum and Brown will carry a large role, and they should benefit immensely from the Nets’ below average defense, ranked 19th in the league.
That said, even though the stats don’t look good, the Nets were actually good when healthy, going 36-19 and having the 6th ranked offense in games when Durant played, which would make this a much closer matchup.
Also, although the Nets were only 1-3 against the Celtics this season, they had key players miss many of the matchups: in their 25 and 23 point losses, KD, Kyrie, and Harden didn’t play. The other two games were much closer, and the Celtics needed 54 points from Tatum in order to pull off a 6 point victory.
Ultimately what this comes down to is trusting that the Nets stars will be able to elevate their play in the playoffs. Durant put up averages of 34/9/4 in last year’s playoffs, and despite having to carry most of the load, he still was extremely efficient with shooting splits of 51/40/87. Kyrie has also shown he’s capable of going off for efficient 40 and 50 point games, and as a whole the Nets seem capable of getting into a higher gear than what they’ve shown in most of the regular season.
On the other hand, the Celtics have struggled in past playoffs, and despite making 3 conference finals in a 4-year stretch, and having home court advantage in each of them, they never managed to get over the hump. They also struggled in close games this season, which is the only reason they didn’t finish with the top seed.
This could go either way, but we expect the Nets’ star-power to prevail in what should be a close series.
Why the Celtics could still win:
The reason that the Celtics could still win this series is that even though their offensive duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum might not be as good as KD and Kyrie are, they face a significiantly easier task, as the Celtics have the #1 defense and the Nets only have the #19 defense. As shown by the head-to-head matchups, the Nets’ defense can be prone to offensive bursts, and even having one of their players go off for 50 isn’t necessarily enough for the Nets to win if their defense is struggling. Outside of that, the Celtics have been on a hot streak since the start of the year. Since January 1st they’ve had the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, which should be tough to beat. Although we’re betting on the Net’s star power to come through, the Celtics were the better team this season, and there is very real “upset” potential here.
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Chicago Bulls (6)
Prediction: Bucks win 4 – 0
Reasoning:
Surprisingly, this 3 vs 6 matchup could be the most clear-cut series of them all. The Bulls went all-in this season, trading for Nikola Vucevic last trade-deadline and adding Demar Derozan in the offseason, as well as key role players in Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball. Everything looked great initially, as the Bulls were competing for a top seed. However, they ultimately fell off and finished with the 6th seed, and there’s two big reasons why we think they have close to no chance. They went a horrific 2-20 against top 8 teams in the league (a category which the Bucks fall into), and everything hit a low point after the all-star break, as they went 7-15 to close the year, the 6th worst record in the entire league. They’ve had the third worst net rating in their last 15 games, and they’ve also had the worst offense and worst defense of all playoff teams since the all-star break.
To make matters worse, the Bulls are matched up against the reigning NBA champions in the Bucks. Milwaukee seems to have taken no steps back from last season and look to continue this playoffs just as they ended the last one. Their 3rd ranked offense should have no trouble against the 23rd ranked defense of the Bulls, and we expect the Bucks to win in dominating fashion.
Why the Bulls could still win:
There doesn’t seem to be any plausible path for the Bulls to win this unless literally everything goes in their way. They’d need Derozan and Lavine to be hitting all their shots, they’d need Jrue Holiday to fall apart as Buck’s point guards have done in years prior, and they’d need their supbar defense to somehow slow Giannis down. All of this would give them a chance, but we don’t foresee any realistic upset potential if the Bucks are able to stay healthy.
Philadelphia 76ers (4) vs Toronto Raptors (5)
Prediction: 76ers win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
The 76ers were the #1 seed in the East last season, but a disappointing second-round loss to the Hawks led to turmoil within the team. Ben Simmons refused to play, but Joel Embiid stepped up and filled the void, becoming the first center to average 30ppg in 40 years as he put up averages of 31/12/4 on efficient 50/37/81 shooting splits. Also, even though they finished as the 4th seed, they were still tied for the 2nd seed and only 2 games behind the #1 seed. The 76ers also traded some of their depth midseason for former MVP James Harden, and although this gave them more star power, the fit has been somewhat questionable. Ever since Harden put on significant weight and suffered hamstring injuries, he hasn’t been the same player. He seems to have lost a step and now heavily relies on his step back and foul baiting to get points, something which has failed him in previous playoffs.
On the other side, the Raptors entered the season with low expectations after being a lottery team last year and taking Scottie Barnes with the fifth pick. However, they managed to turn things around, and after starting 23-23, they finished 25-11 and rose all the way up to the 5th seed.
Although the 76ers seem to have the advantage in talent, the numbers show the teams are very closely matched, as the Raptors have the 15th ranked offense and the 9th ranked defense, while the 76ers have the 11th ranked offense and 12th ranked defense. The interesting part of the matchup will come on the defensive end for the Raptors, as they’ll be tasked with slowing down Embiid. The Raptors have one of the most intriguing roster builds in the league, with 7 of their 9 highest minute players being over 6’7″. However, this might not be that helpful, as no individual player seems to be a good matchup size-wise for Embiid. Still, Raptors coach Nick Nurse is one of the best in the league, so he should be able to scheme up a system that can bring multiple defenders to Embiid and force him to become a playmaker.
Also, with Harden the 76ers still struggled against top teams, going 7-6 against teams that at made the playoffs and/or play-in. This includes 2 matchups against the Raptors, in which they lost both with Harden struggling immensely as he shot 8/24 from the field. These losses were both close however, ending in 5 point finishes both times.
The Raptors have the potential to make this a close series, but we expect the 76er’s advantage in talent and experience to be enough for them to pull off the win.
Why the Raptors could still win:
The 76ers stars are heavily reliant on free throws, but foul-baiting can only take a team so far. Embiid averaged the most free throw attempts per game in the NBA this season, and Harden averaged the third most, so if the refs are less lenient for making these calls now that it’s the playoffs, the Raptors’ swarming defense could take advantage and slow down the 76ers. Additionally, Harden and Embiid have been known to struggle in the playoffs, so it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine their production falling off from where it was in the regular season. This matchup is close enough to where the Raptors don’t need too many things to go their way in order to win, so there is decent upset potential here.
All-Star Analytics 