In this post we’ll give our preview and prediction for the Finals. Make sure to check our posts for previous rounds.
Phoenix Suns (2) vs Milwaukee Bucks (3)
Prediction: Suns win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
Following their sweep of the Denver Nuggets, the Phoenix Suns beat the Los Angeles Clippers in 6 games to reach the NBA Finals. While their series had many close games, the Suns led from start to finish, closing it out in convincing fashion. That said, the Clippers were without their star player, Kawhi Leonard, for the entirety of the series. With their victory, the Suns will represent the Western Conference in the NBA finals and look to capture their first championship in NBA history.
Representing the Eastern Conference will be the Milwaukee Bucks, a team currently facing a 50 year championship drought. After falling short in 2019 and 2020 despite being the #1 seed and conference-favorite, the Bucks finally broke through as the underdog this time, punching their ticket with a convincing 6-game series win over the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Hawks suffered an injury to their star, Trae Young, but Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo was injured during the same time period. Giannis’ health status is still unknown, and it could ultimately end up deciding who wins the championship.
Giannis is expected to return relatively early in the series, and the Suns will need to find a way to stop him defensively. Against teams that have failed to slow him down, Giannis has been unstoppable. He averaged 26.5 ppg and 10.0 rpg on highly efficient 60.8% field goal shooting against the Hawks in limited minutes, and in the previous round he put up 31.9 ppg and 12.9 rpg on 57.4% shooting from the field against the Nets. That said, in the past few years, teams have shown it possible to slow Giannis down. The best example is the Miami Heat. The Heat beat the Bucks 4-1 in 2020 by shutting Giannis down, and despite getting swept 4-0 by the Bucks in 2021, they still significantly limited Giannis. In 2020, Giannis went from averaging 29.5 ppg on 55.3% shooting in the regular season to 21.8 on 50.8% against the Heat. In 2021, he went from averaging 28.1 ppg on 56.9% shooting in the regular season to 23.5 on 45.0% against the Heat. Ultimately, this came down to the Heat having many capable defenders to throw at Giannis. Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo were all able to slow down Giannis the past two years in the playoffs. Even though other teams have failed miserably to do what the Heat did, there’s reason to believe the Suns could be different.
Just like the Heat, the Suns also possess some great potential defenders for Giannis, including Jae Crowder (who was on the Heat in 2020), Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton. Jae Crowder proved himself last year, and during the playoffs this year, he’s slowed down the likes of LeBron James and Paul George. Mikal Bridges has also had similar responsibilities, with the same successes, and has been one of the Suns’ best defenders throughout the year. Ayton’s matchup with Giannis will be the most interesting, as Ayton will probably primarily guard Bucks center Brook Lopez and only face Giannis while Lopez is resting. Ayton has shown he’s capable of strong defense throughout the playoffs, as he limited Anthony Davis to 17.4 ppg on 40.3% shooting and slowed down MVP Nikola Jokic to 47.7% shooting, down from his regular season average of 56.6%.
Outside of Giannis, the Suns will probably put either Crowder or Bridges on Khris Middleton, who so far has struggled throughout the playoffs, shooting 43.4% from the field, down from his regular season average of 47.6%, and 33.8% from three, which is way down from his regular season average of 41.4%.
The other big factor defensively will be the Bucks’ 3 point shooting. The game plan will be to force Giannis to kick out to 3 point shooters, and so far these shooters have been struggling. The Bucks had just 31.1% 3-point shooting, which was significantly lower than their regular season average of 38.9%. The Hawks did have the 3rd best 3-point defense in the NBA, but the Suns also have the 5th best, so there’s a good chance they can do something similar.
On the other end of the court, we have the defensive matchups between Phoenix’s two guards, Chris Paul and Devin Booker, and the Bucks’ all-defensive first team guard, Jrue Holiday. If Holiday can successfully slow down Paul, then the Bucks can potentially have PJ Tucker guard Booker. Tucker was extremely good defensively against the Nets, where he was given the task of guarding Durant. He was able to greatly lower Durant’s efficiency, which went from 53.7% to 45.0% from the field and from 49.7% to 35.2% from 3.
The Suns should be able to counter this with a lot of pick and rolls, and how the Bucks choose to guard this will be a key factor in this series. Typically, the Bucks have utilized drop coverage, which is where the defender of the screener drops back to contain, potentially leaving a man open. Paul and Booker should be able to take full advantage of this,getting plenty of open jumpers, one of Paul’s and Bookers’ favorite shots, and threes. However, the Bucks did implement a switch-heavy defensive scheme against the Hawks late last series. This may have been because the Hawks’ primary scorer and guard, Trae Young, was injured. It’ll be hard to use the same strategy now that the Bucks are facing Chris Paul, as this coverage would lead to the extremely unfavorable matchup of Lopez guarding Paul, which the Suns should be able to score against at a high efficiency. If the Bucks want to play a switch-heavy defense, they’ll probably have to bench Lopez and rely on Giannis being able to play center and guard Ayton, who will also be a big X-factor this series.
So far Ayton has been the most consistent player offensively for the Suns. Chris Paul struggled mightily at first against the Clippers, before eventually picking it up and having a spectacular game 6, where he put up 41 points on 16/24 from the field. Devin Booker also struggled, as after opening game 1 with a 40-point triple double, he fell off, finishing with a horrible 38.2% shooting from the field. Ayton has never wavered though. Throughout the playoffs he has put up great stats on impressive efficiency: 16.2 ppg, 11.8 rpg, and 70.6% from the field, and against the Clippers he continued his dominance, averaging 17.8 ppg and 13.7 rpg on 69.3% shooting.
This looks like it could be a close matchup, and arguably when both teams are firing on all cylinders, the Bucks are probably slightly better. That said, the Bucks don’t look anywhere close to this level, as Giannis’ health is in doubt and his supporting cast has struggled throughout the playoffs. Also, even if Giannis does return, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100%. On the other hand, the Suns have been elite throughout the playoffs, and they look to be peaking at the right time. This could go either way, but the Phoenix Suns are our pick to win the NBA championship.
Why the Bucks could still Win:
Firstly, the Bucks need Giannis to return at full strength and be the best player in this series, which is something he could very well do given what he’s done the past two rounds. They’ll also need to improve their shooting. As mentioned earlier, they’ve shot terribly throughout the playoffs, averaging 31.1% from 3 throughout the postseason. This would be extremely helpful in punishing the Suns when their defense collapses in order to stop Giannis. Middleton and Holiday will also need to step up, and even though they’ve struggled throughout this postseason, this is something they’re capable of, as both are former all-stars who’ve still flashed signs of dominance.
Defensively, the Bucks have a big choice to make, but ideally they should be able to bench Lopez and have former DPOY Giannis guard, and hopefully slow down, Ayton. This would give them the power to switch almost any screen. Additionally, they’ll need Tucker and Holiday to slow down the Suns’ offensive weapons: Booker and Paul.
The Bucks are far from their full potential, but if they can get close, they can become the team with the best player and the most star power, and this will give them a very real chance of winning this series.
All-Star Analytics 