In this post we’ll give our preview and prediction for the Eastern Conference Finals. Make sure to check our posts for previous rounds.
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Atlanta Hawks (4)
Prediction: Bucks win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
The Bucks just upset the championship favorite Brooklyn Nets in the Second Round, overcoming an 0-2 and then 2-3 deficit before ultimately prevailing in an exciting game 7. They were lucky to an extent, as James Harden missed the first 4 games due to injury and was very limited when he returned, and Kyrie Irving got injured in Game 4 and missed the rest of the series. That said, the Bucks had their own struggles too. Their point guard Jrue Holiday had a horrific drop off in shooting, as he shot 36.1% from the field and 26.1% on 3’s, both of which were way down from his Regular Season averages of 50.3% and 39.2% respectively. Khris Middleton was also inconsistent, having several bad shooting performances, including 6/23 in Game 1, 7/20 in Game 2, 8/22 in Game 5, and 9/26 in Game 7. Their one consistently great player was former 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokoumpno, who averaged 31.9 ppg and 12.9 rpg on 57.4% shooting from the field. Giannis was unstoppable, and he will now look to lead the Bucks over the Hawks, who completed an upset of their own.
In an even bigger upset than the Bucks over Nets, the Atlanta Hawks defeated the top-seeded Philadelphia 76ers in an exciting 7 game series. They pulled off several large comebacks within games, including an 18 point comeback in Game 4 and a 26 point comeback in Game 5. The 76ers struggled tremendously to close games, often going long stretches without scoring at all. Their All-Star point guard Ben Simmons averaged a mere 6 shots per game, and made matters worse by shooting 15/45 from the free throw line. Hawk’s star Trae Young led the way, putting up 29.0 ppg and 10.9 apg, which was an increase from his Regular Season averages of 25.3 ppg and 9.4 apg. That said, this came with a decrease in efficiency, as he dropped from 43.8% from the field and 34.3% from three to 39.2% from the field and 32.3% from three.
The Bucks should be able to score on offense, as they’re going against a Hawks defense that was 21st in the NBA. However, they did struggle against Brooklyn’s 23rd ranked defense, shooting only 44.1% from the field and 30.1% from three. This was significantly down from their regular season averages of 48.7% from the field and 38.9% from deep. While last round’s poor offensive performance looks somewhat like a fluke, it will be interesting to see if the Bucks bounce back or continue struggling.
The one Bucks player who didn’t struggle last round was Giannis, and the Hawks might not be able to stop him, as during their regular season matchups against the Bucks, the Hawks let Giannis average 24.3 ppg on 64.3% from the field. They’ll also have to deal with Khris Middleton, who is currently averaging 22.3 ppg on 43.2 / 38.0 / 87.3 shooting splits, and they might have to deal with Jrue Holiday if he can bounce back, as during the Regular Season he averaged 17.7 ppg on 50.3 / 39.2 / 78.7 splits. Although it’s possible the Hawks could have the same success as the Nets on defense, it doesn’t seem likely.
Defensively, the Bucks match up well against the Hawks. Their point guard Jrue Holiday was First Team All-Defensive this year, and he will probably guard Trae. Trae only played 1 game against the Bucks this season, and in that game he was completely shut down, shooting 3/17 in a blowout loss.
The Hawks offense as a whole also struggled against the 76ers, shooting 44.4% from the field and 33.5% from three, which was a noticeable drop from their Regular Season averages of 46.8% from the field and 37.3% from three. That said, the 76ers defense was better than the Bucks, by almost 4 points per hundred possessions, so there could be hope for the Hawks here.
The one worry defensively for the Bucks is that their defense has historically given up a lot of open threes. However, this didn’t hold true against the Nets. In the regular season the Nets took 36.1 threes per game on 39.2% shooting, but in the playoffs they didn’t shoot many more: 36.9 attempts per game on 35.3% shooting. While the Hawks have capable shooters, they don’t look like the best team to take advantage of the Buck’s defense either way, as in the Regular Season they were just 19th in the league in 3-point attempts and 12th in 3-point percentage.
The Bucks seem to have a clear advantage here, and we expect them to advance and represent the East in the NBA Finals.
Why the Hawks could still Win:
The Hawks have to take advantage of the Bucks’ defensive system which gives up threes. The Hawks have plenty of capable shooters in Huerter, Bogdanovic, Young, and Gallinari, but they’ll need to start hitting their outside shots at an increased rate. The Hawks also will need huge performances from Trae Young. He’s shown he’s capable of scoring a lot of points, but he’ll need to do it on elite efficiency.
On defense, it will be difficult, but the Hawks would increase their chances greatly if they find a way to limit Giannis. The Heat were successful in doing this in the First Round, and even though the Nets failed at this, they still highlighted some weaknesses in Giannis’s game. He ended up shooting 31 3’s in the series, making only 8, or 25.8%. He also shot 60 free throws and made less than half, converting only 29 for a measly 48.3%. His damage was done with 2’s, specifically those in the paint, as overall he shot an extremely efficient 64.9% on 2-point field goals. This should make the Hawks’ plan clear: try to keep Giannis out of the paint, but if he does get in make sure to foul him instead of letting him score. If the Hawks can at least slow Giannis down, this would lead to the Bucks relying more on Middleton and Holiday, neither of which was good last round.
If Trae Young outplays Giannis and the Hawks hit their 3’s, then they will have a chance of winning.
All-Star Analytics 