In this post we’ll give our preview and prediction for the Western Conference Finals. Make sure to check our posts for previous rounds.
Phoenix Suns (2) vs Los Angeles Clippers (4)
Prediction: Suns win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
Following a First Round win over the defending champion Lakers, the Phoenix Suns continued their dominance in the Second Round, sweeping the Denver Nuggets in the series where no game was even close. They’ll now face the Clippers, a team whose path to the Western Conference Finals was very different.
After coming back down 0-2 to the Mavericks in the First Round, the Los Angeles Clippers fell behind 0-2 again in the Second Round, this time to the Utah Jazz. They won the next two games at home to even the series 2-2, and then received devastating news that their superstar Kawhi Leonard would miss potentially the rest of the playoffs. Kawhi had led the Clippers in PER, Win Shares, BPM, and VORP in the regular season, and in the playoffs he was putting up averages of 30.4 / 7.7 / 4.4 on highly efficient 57/39/88 shooting splits. It looked like losing Kawhi should have ended the Clippers’ hopes, but instead they were even more dominant without him, winning games 5 and 6 with everyone stepping up to fill the void. The Clippers ended up having the 2nd most efficient offense in a playoff series in the past 25 years, scoring a ridiculous 127.7 points per 100 possessions. If the Clippers can even come close to replicating this, they will be very hard to beat. That said, there are reasons to believe the Suns can do better than the Jazz did at defending the Clippers.
The Clippers torched the Jazz with their small-ball line-up. By not playing their center Ivica Zubac, the Clippers forced the Jazz to make a decision: bench DPOY Rudy Gobert or keep him in and hope he doesn’t give up too many wide-open shots on the perimeter. The Jazz kept him in and it cost them dearly. Thanks to Gobert, the Clippers kept getting wide open 3’s and they ended up shooting 43% from deep in the series. Gobert also wasn’t able to take advantage of the fact that the Clippers had no center when he was on offense, and the Clippers ended up being able to go small for most of the series.
However, Suns’ center DeAndre Ayton should be able to punish the Clippers for going small, as he is much more capable of being a dominant offensive force. So far in the playoffs, he has averaged 15.2 ppg and 10.6 rpg on an extremely impressive 71.6% from the field. He also has more mobility than Gobert defensively. If the Clippers find themselves giving up more than they’re gaining by going small, they could be forced to play Zubac, who has actually had a negative plus-minus so far in the play-offs. Also, the Suns’ defense as a whole has been good so far, as despite being ranked 9th in the regular season, the Suns have had the 2nd best playoff defense. They showed they were capable of shutting down the Nuggets’ 7th ranked offense, which isn’t far off of the Clippers’ 4th ranked offense. The Clippers will also probably regress statistically, as their historic series was probably a fluke to some extent.
On the other end of the floor, the Clippers will probably have a harder time defending the Suns than they did the Mavericks and Jazz. Both the Mavericks and Jazz only had one primary ballhander/playmaker (Conley was injured), and the Clippers were able to focus their whole defense towards those players, sending timely double teams and forcing other players to take shots. Even though Doncic of the Mavericks and Mitchell of the Jazz ended up averaging 35.7 and 34.8 ppg respectively, it wasn’t enough, and the Clippers’ strategy proved successful. However, the Suns are more balanced, with both guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker being capable of scoring and playmaking, as against the Nuggets they averaged 25.5 / 5.0 / 10.3 and 25.3 / 7.8 / 4.5 respectively. The Suns’ wings are also capable of handling the ball, and their center Ayton is also able to score on offense. The Clippers have stopped two strong offensive teams so far, but they’ve yet to face one with a makeup like the Suns.
The Suns appear to have the edge in this matchup, and we’re predicting they’ll be the team representing the West in the NBA Finals.
Why the Clippers could still Win:
The Clippers will need to sustain or at least come close to sustaining their offensive efficiency from the previous round. This will rely on two things: being able to go small and being able to hit 3’s. For one, it’s possible that Ayton won’t be able to stop the Clippers from going small, as his 71.6% shooting likely isn’t sustainable either. If his efficiency falls, he might not do enough damage to force the Clippers to play a center. Additionally, in terms of 3’s, the Clippers’ should have a decent chance of replicating their success. They shot 43% against the Jazz, which wasn’t far off of their Regular Season average of 41%. More importantly though, they did this against the best 3-point defense in the league, as Utah had surrendered the fewest 3’s and the 2nd lowest 3-point percentage in the entire NBA. If the Jazz defense couldn’t stop the Clippers, then there’s a decent chance the weaker Suns defense won’t be able to either.
Also, Suns point guard Chris Paul will miss at least one game this series due to Covid protocol. This could weaken the Suns if other players aren’t able to step up, and it could potentially allow the Clippers to finally get an early lead in a playoff series.
That said, the fate of the Clippers will ultimately be determined by Paul George. He was the 2nd star behind Kawhi Leonard, but now that Kawhi is gone it will be up to Paul George to lead the team. In the two playoff games without Kawhi, he put up statlines of 37/16/5 and 28/9/7. Also, the last time he played a full season without Kawhi, Paul George was a top-3 MVP candidate. He hasn’t always performed well in the playoffs, but now that the responsibility rests firmly on his shoulders, it’s his chance to prove he’s the real deal.
If the Clippers end up having the best player in the series and are able to continue their offensive dominance, there’ll be no reason they can’t win.
All-Star Analytics 