In this post we’ll go over each of the Western Conference Second Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to check out our first round predictions for the West where we went 3/4.
Utah Jazz (1) vs Los Angeles Clippers (4)
Prediction: Jazz win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
The Utah Jazz won convincingly in their First Round matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, and despite being heavily favored, they still managed to exceed expectations. Throughout history, almost every team has a worse offensive rating in the postseason, and this is usually the case due to teams upping their defensive efforts. The Jazz managed to improve their offensive output, despite being matched up against the Grizzlies, who had the 6th ranked defense in the league. The Jazz went from an offensive rating of 117.6 in the regular season, to 124.6 in their series against the Grizzlies, and it’s worth noting that this average included the one game the Jazz lost when Donovan Mitchell didn’t play. The Utah Jazz will face a team that had a very different experience in the First Round: the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers pulled off a comeback against the Dallas Mavericks, falling behind 2-0 and then 3-2 before eventually winning in game 7. They faced an early 3 point onslaught from the Mavericks, who shot uncharacteristically well from three in the first three games: 47.2%, 52.9%, and 51.3%. The Clippers allowed the Mavs star, Luka Doncic, to do whatever he wanted. Doncic dictated the entire Mavs offense, and he could pick and choose his matchups to give him the best advantage, as the Clippers were way too willing to switch any screen. This resulted in Doncic averaging 35.7 ppg, 10.3 apg, and 7.9 rpg on great efficiency (except free throws) of 49.0 / 40.8 / 52.9. If the Mavs had a competent defense, this series would’ve been over for the Clippers much earlier. However, the Clippers were great on offense, feasting against the league’s 20th ranked defense. Kawhi Leonard was unstoppable, averaging 32.1 ppg on 51.2 / 42.5 / 89.8 shooting splits. However, things will get tougher, as the Jazz have the league’s 4th ranked defense.
The leader of this defense is Jazz center Rudy Gobert, who is expected to win his 3rd Defensive Player of the Year award this season. He’s one of the best rim protectors in the NBA, and it will be interesting to see how the Clippers deal with him. In their series against the Mavs, the Clippers’ adjustment of going to small ball in order to improve their defense was somewhat successful. However, the Mavs attempted to counter it by starting 7’4” Boban Marjanovic. In the final two games of the series, both of which the Mavs lost, Boban had a +5 and a -1 plus-minus both of which were relatively good compared to the rest of the Mavs’ squad. Boban could finish easily at the rim and bother the Clippers when they took shots near the rim. Rudy Gobert provides the Jazz with many similar threats, except the difference is that he is much more polished than Boban. The Clippers could try countering with their own 7-footer, Ivica Zubac, but this could lead to more issues for the Clippers, as they got outscored when he was on the floor against the Mavs. Utah guards Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell should be able to utilize Gobert’s elite screening ability to get downhill on a favorable matchup while being surrounded by great shooters.
Speaking of shooting, the Clippers allowed the Mavs (who were 18th in 3-point shooting) to shoot well above their season average from three, and if they let that happen again against the Jazz they’ll be in a lot of trouble. The Jazz not only shot 3’s at the highest rate in the league, but they also made them at the 4th highest clip. Also, even though the Clippers had the league’s 8th ranked defense, the Grizzlies had the 6th ranked defense and they still were helpless against the league’s 3rd best offense.
Things look better for the Clippers on offense though. Kawhi looks like a top-2 player in the league right now, and he’s proven he can be the best player on a championship team, which is something that can’t be said for anyone on the Jazz. The Jazz had the 4th best defense in the league, but at the same time, the Clippers had the 4th best offense. Kawhi was unbelievably efficient against the Mavs, and while he’s likely to take a step back in terms of efficiency, he should still be elite offensively.
Ultimately, this could come to young Jazz star Donovan Mitchell. He averaged 28.5 ppg and 5.8 apg in the First Round on efficient 45/40/90 shooting, not needing to go all out against a weaker opponent. That said, he’s shown he’s capable of even more, as last year he led the playoffs in scoring with 36.3 ppg on godly 53/52/95 shooting splits. If he can come close to that this time, he should be able to neutralize the star power from the Clippers, giving the Jazz a good chance as they have the better supporting cast.
There’s a good chance that the winner of this series will make the Finals, and while we truly think this could go either way, we’re putting our trust in Mitchell to will the Jazz to win in what will be a close series.
Why the Clippers could still win:
As mentioned above, the Clippers are the more proven team, as Kawhi Leonard has won multiple championships, while most of the Jazz’s core hasn’t ever made it past the Second Round. The Clippers have also shown they’re capable of overcoming adversity after their First Round win over the Mavs, and several players have shown they’re capable of stepping up. For example, Reggie Jackson was huge in game 6, dropping 25 points on 8/15 shooting and grabbing 9 rebounds, and Marcus Morris was even more amazing in game 7, shooting 7/9 on 3’s, which tied the record for most 3-pointers in a game 7. Most important, however, is star player Paul George. He’s routinely underperformed in the playoffs, but he’s shown he’s capable of playing at a superstar level, having been a top-3 MVP candidate just two years ago. The Clippers already arguably have the better roster, so if the players around Kawhi are able to step up their game, the Clippers will have a very good chance of winning this series.
Phoenix Suns (2) vs Denver Nuggets (3)
Prediction: Suns win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
The Suns surprised many, including us, when they beat the reigning NBA Champions in the First Round of the playoffs in 6 games. The Lakers were suffering from some injuries, with LeBron being limited by his ankle, and Davis missing the last few games of the series, but the Suns were dealing with their own issues, as Chris Paul suffered a shoulder injury. While he was able to play in most of the games, he clearly wasn’t 100%. In his absence, we saw a few of the Suns players step up. Cameron Payne took an increased role at point guard, and didn’t disappoint, putting up 12.5 ppg on 42/42/100 shooting splits. Additionally, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton both impressed in their first playoffs. Booker put up 29.7 on 49/44/94 and Ayton put up an ultra efficient 15.8 ppg and 10.7 rpg on 79.6% shooting from the field. The Suns will look to keep their playoff run going against the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets won a very tight series against the Portland Trailblazers in the First Round in 6 Games. Ultimately, the Blazers’ 29th ranked defense was their downfall, as they allowed MVP Nikola Jokic to put up 33.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg, and 4.5 apg on highly efficient 53/43/92 shooting and Michael Porter to put up 18.8 ppg and 6.7 rpg on equally crazy 54/42/91 shooting. Additionally, Monte Morris stepped up in the absence of Jamal Murray and had multiple big games. He ended up averaging 15.3 ppg and 5.8 apg on 45/42/78 shooting splits. The Nuggets were insane on offense, but it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to replicate that against a better defense.
The Suns had the 9th ranked defense, holding opponents to 4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than the Blazers did. Their defense strength showed in their series against the Lakers, where they shut down Anthony Davis (before he got injured). He went from averaging 21.8 ppg and 7.9 rpg on 49.1% from the field in the regular season to averaging 17.4 ppg and 6.6 rpg on 40.3% from the field in the playoffs. If they can limit Jokic to this same extent, the series will be over. However, their defensive strategies might not be nearly as effective against Jokic and the Nuggets. While the Lakers were a terrible three point shooting team in the regular season, ranked 21st, the Nuggets were much better at 8th. If the Suns choose to collapse the defense onto Jokic when he’s in the post, he will use his elite playmaking abilities to get open shots for Michael Porter and the rest of the Nuggets’ players, who should be able to punish the Suns better than the Lakers did.
The Suns were also impressive against the Lakers on offense, managing to overcome the top-ranked defense in the NBA. Things should get easier, as the Suns will now get to face the Nuggets’ 12th ranked defense. This should allow the Suns’ 5th ranked offense to continue thriving. The Nuggets haven’t given much reason to believe that they could stop the Nuggets, as they were completely unable to slow down the Blazers’ offense, letting them average 119.5 ppg on 41.3% from three, both of which were increases from the regular season. Also, the Suns shot 37.8% from three in the regular season, before dropping to 35.9% against the Lakers. There’s a good chance that the Suns’ elite shooting could return during this series.
The Jokic-Ayton matchup could end up being decisive, as although Jokic will look to keep up his scoring against Ayton, Ayton will also look to attack Jokic. Anthony Davis was supposed to be one of the best defensive bigs in the league, yet he still let Ayton shoot 78% from the field in the games he played. Jokic is a much worse defender than Davis due to his lack of mobility, which should give Ayton plenty of opportunities to shine and possibly force the Nuggets to collapse the paint to help and leave Suns players open for 3’s. Additionally, we saw as part of the Nuggets’ first round series that Lillard was able to get downhill opportunities against Jokic. Booker, Paul, and Payne should all be able to utilize Ayton’s screens to recreate these opportunities while being surrounded by a great three-point shooting team.
Both teams have given us reasons to believe they can win, but ultimately we trust the Suns to sustain their production more than we do the Nuggets.
Why the Nuggets could still win:
The health of Chris Paul is still somewhat questionable, and Cameron Payne’s great play against the Lakers might not be sustainable. If the Suns lose their point guard play, their offense will slow down, and it won’t be able to take advantage of the Nuggets’ greatest weakness, their defense. As mentioned above, the Nuggets will also need to improve their defensive performances. This is very much a possibility, as their defense was 12th in the regular season. While that may not be that good, their defense only needs to be good enough for their offense to outscore the Suns. Damian Lillard was extremely efficient against the Nuggets while putting up 34.3 ppg. While Booker is still a star on offense, he might not be capable of putting the same pressure on the Nuggets that Lillard was able to.
Ultimately though, the Nuggets do have the MVP of the league on their team, and if he’s the best player in the series, the Nuggets will have a good chance of winning this series.
All-Star Analytics 