In this post we’ll go over each of the Eastern Conference Second Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to check out our first round predictions for the East where we went 3/4.
Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)
Prediction: 76ers win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
The Atlanta Hawks impressed during their first round of the playoffs, handily beating the New York Knicks in 5 games in a series that many thought would be a tossup. This can somewhat be attributed to the horrific Knicks’ offense, which struggled to score. The 2021 MIP Julius Randle was the driving force for the Knick in the regular season, averaging 24 ppg on 45.6 fg% and 41.1 3p%, but against the Hawks he fell off to a mere 18 ppg on an egregiously bad 29.8 fg% and 33.3 3p%. It’s not yet clear whether it was the Knicks offense that was bad or the Hawks defense that was good, but we’ll find out now that the Hawks are matched up against the first-seeded 76ers.
The 76ers won comfortably in the First Round against the Washington Wizards in 5 games. Their stifling defense, which ranked 2nd in the league during the regular season, was able to limit the damage from Washington’s star guards. They slowed down Bradley Beal to 27.6 ppg per 36, which was 3.9 ppg less than his regular season averages. However, they significantly limited former MVP Russell Westbrook. Guarded primarily by Ben Simmons, Westbrook was held to 19.0 ppg, on a very inefficient 33.3 fg%, which was much worse than his 43.9 fg% in the regular season. Additionally, the 76ers’ offense didn’t have any trouble scoring, as Embiid, Harris, Simmons, and Curry all put up at least 14.8 ppg, on above 50% field goal percentage.
The Hawks will have a much harder time stopping the 76ers than they did the Knicks. They were able to focus their defense on Randle by bringing doubles onto him, but this strategy won’t be effective against the 76ers’ versatile offense. Clint Capela and John Collins will be the primary defenders on Embiid, and it’s unlikely that either will be able to slow him down on their own. This might lead to the Hawks bringing the same doubles we saw in their first round series, but because of the shooters that surround Embiid, such as Harris, Curry, or Green, the 76ers should be able to take advantage of these scenarios.
On the other end of the court, even though the 76ers had the NBA’s 2nd ranked defense, the Knicks had the 3rd ranked defense and they were unable to stop the Hawks, as Trae Young dominated with averages of 29.2 ppg and 9.8 apg. Ben Simmons is one of the best defenders in the league, so a big question will be whether he’ll be able to stick to the smaller and shiftier Trae Young.
In terms of head-to-head matchups the regular season, the 76ers were 2-1, and their one loss, which was by 18 points, was due to Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, George Hill, and Matisse Thybulle all being injured. It’s worth mentioning, though, that for their two wins, which were by 44 and 22, Bogdanovic and Young were injured in one and Bogdanovic was still injured in the other.
The 76ers were the better team in the regular season, and they played better in the First Round. The Hawks have proven they’re a team that deserves to be taken seriously, but we’re predicting the 76ers will win a tough series.
Why the Hawks could still win:
The Hawks winning this series will be heavily dependent on one thing: Joel Embiid’s health. Joel Embiid was an MVP-finalist this season, serving as the defensive anchor for the top-seeded 76ers while putting up crazy averages of 28.5 ppg and 10.6 rpg on 51.3 fg% and 37.7 3p%. Unfortunately, Embiid suffered an untimely injury in the first round, tearing his meniscus, which would require season-ending surgery to repair. However, he’s trying to avoid surgery, and is still listed as day-to-day. That said, we haven’t seen him play since getting injured, and we don’t know how much this injury will truly limit him. The scary thing for the 76ers is how much they’ve struggled when Embiid isn’t on the floor. In the first four games, prior to Embiid’s injury, the 76ers were +70 in points differential with him on the court and -17 without him. It’s reassuring that the 76ers were able to adjust and win game 5 against the Wizards without him, but the Hawks are a much more talented team, and by game 5 the series was already pretty much over. Regardless of whether Embiid plays or not, the Hawks will need Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic to have multiple great offensive performances, and they’ve both shown to be capable of that in their series against the Knicks. If Trae Young can continue his dominance and be the best player in this series, the Hawks have a real chance, especially if Embiid is limited.
Brooklyn Nets (2) vs Milwaukee Bucks (3)
Prediction: Nets win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
The Nets continued to show off the best offense of all time in their first round matchup against the Boston Celtics. Their three superstars were all fantastic: Durant averaged 32.6 ppg, Harden had 27.8 ppg and 10.6 apg, and Kyrie had 24.8 ppg. This accounted for 69.2% of the Nets’ scoring, but when factoring in assists too, the three accounted for over 88% of the Nets’ scoring. The high scoring averages were also accomplished on unbelievably high efficiency: Durant had 54.6 / 50.0 / 91.5 splits, Harden had 55.6 / 47.5 / 90.9 splits, and Kyrie had 49.4 / 38.9 / 92.3 splits. Their victory against the Celtics will have them entering one of the most highly anticipated playoff matchups this year against the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks had the only sweep of the first round, getting a dominating revenge win over the Miami Heat, who knocked them out the previous year. The Heat’s offense struggled, but their defense was successful against Giannis. His regular season averages of 28.1 ppg on 56.9 fg% dropped to just 23.5 ppg on 45.0 fg%. We thought this would come at the cost of great Bucks shooting from three, but they only shot 32.7%, a far cry from their 38.9% average in the regular season. The impressive part for the Bucks came from their defense. The Heat’s 46.8% from the field in the regular season fell to 39.5%, and their percentages on 3’s also fell from 35.8% to 33.6%. This can be attributed to both Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler who both fell short of their regular season stats, and played very inefficiently, especially Butler, who averaged 29.7 fg% due to being guarded primarily by Giannis.
If the Bucks’ best quality was their defense, this matchup definitely won’t favor them, as it’s virtually impossible to slow down the Nets. Harden, Durant, and Irving are undoubtedly 3 of the 4 best players in the series, and each one of them is capable of being the best player in the series. They’re also all among the best in the league for shot creation. Additionally, the Nets accompany that line-up with Joe Harris, who led the NBA with 47.5 3p% in the regular season and even upped it to 51.5% in the playoffs. The Nets will search out favorable matchups on offense all game long, and with Durant taking advantage of shorter players, while Harden and Kyrie take bigs such as Lopez off the dribble.
With their unstoppable offense, the Nets only need a good enough defense to win this series. The Heat gave the blueprint for slowing down Giannis last year and they somewhat executed it again this year. The Nets need good offball help defense in order to ‘build a wall’ around Giannis, then they need decent close-outs to make sure the Bucks don’t have completely wide-open shots. Although they might not have the personnel to do so, other teams have proven that the Bucks’ offense can be slowed down, and the same thing can’t be said about the Nets’ offense.
If we look at the head-to-head matchups between the two squads in the regular season we see that the Nets were 1-2; however, this doesn’t tell the whole story. The Nets won a game by 2 points when Irving didn’t play, and in the two games they lost, which were by 3 and 6 points, Harden didn’t play.
Given that it’s the playoffs, and the close margins of their regular season games, we’re likely to see many close games throughout this series. This is a little worrying for the Bucks due to Giannis’ free throw struggles at times. While the Nets’ stars all shot above 90% from the free throw line, Giannis only shot 63.6% and is a career 62.8% free throw shooter in the playoffs, which could make the difference down the stretch of tight games.
The last thing to mention is that the Bucks will be missing starting point guard Dante DiVincenzo due to a tendon injury in his foot. Although he wasn’t a key contributor on offense, he was a good defender, and the Bucks will need as much help as they can get when guarding the Nets’ backcourt.
With all of that, the Nets do have an advantage due to their offensive firepower, and it’s hard to bet against the team with 3 of the 4 best players that all have proven playoff success and clutchness. This has the potential to be the best playoff series this year, and we expect the Nets to ultimately prevail.
Why the Bucks could still win:
The Bucks have to outscore the Nets, and to do this, they’ll need to take advantage of the Nets’ lack of size. Giannis and Lopez will both need to crash the glass and get as many second chance points as possible. The Nets were 23rd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage, and Bucks have had the 2nd best offensive rebounding percentage in the playoffs, getting 33.6% of their own misses. The Nets might shoot more efficiently, but it could end up being nullified by the Bucks getting more total shots. Also, Giannis dominated against the Nets in the regular season, putting up 39.7 ppg, as the Nets had no answer for him on defense. He will need to continue doing this, and he could very easily do it given that Jeff Green, who could be his primary defender, is expected to miss the first few games of the series. The Nets’ defense as a whole has been poor, as they ranked 23rd in the NBA during the regular season, meaning it’s not unreasonable to think that the Bucks could be much better offensively than they were against the Heat’s 7th ranked defense. If Giannis continues his dominance against the subpar Nets defense, and the other players hit their outside shots at a rate comparable to their regular season averages, the Bucks could end up being dominant enough offensively to match the Nets’ scoring, in which case they’d have a very real chance to win.
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