In this post we’ll go over each of the Western Conference First Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. Make sure to check out our play-in predictions for the West where we went a combined 2/3.
Utah Jazz (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Prediction: Jazz 4 – 1
Reasoning:
After blowing a 3-1 lead and flaming out in the First Round of last year’s playoffs, the Utah Jazz came out firing this season, getting the top seed early and never relinquishing control. They were elite on both ends of the floor, having a top 5 offense and top 5 defense in the regular season. They also had historic 3-point shooting, becoming the first team to make double-digit threes in every single game this season. This was due to the amount of great shooters on their team, as they had 6 players shoot over 38% on threes while still attempting over 3.9 per game. Joe Ingles shot 45.1% on 6.1 attempts per game, George Niang shot 42.5% on 4.1 attempts per game, Mike Conley shot 41.2% on 6.6 attempts per game, Bojan Bogdanovic shot 39.0% on 6.4 attempts per game, Donovan Mitchell shot 38.6% on 8.7 attempts per game, and Royce O’Neale shot 38.5% on 3.9 attempts per game. This led to the Jazz shooting 43 threes per game, the most in the league, while also hitting them at the fifth highest rate. The Jazz coupled this great offense with the 4th ranked defense in the league, spearheaded by presumed Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and his paint-protecting abilities. They gave up the 2nd lowest field goal and three point percentage in the entire league. This won’t be good news for their opponents: the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies just came off of two close play-in games, beating the Spurs and Warriors by 4 and 5 points respectively. Their 15th ranked offense will probably struggle, especially because of their poor outside shooting. They attempted threes at the 25th highest rate in the league and hit them at the 20th highest rate, relying primarily on interior shots to get their buckets. However, when they drive into the paint they’ll be met by Gobert, who should force them to kick it out and shoot more 3’s than they’re comfortable with.
Another reason the Jazz will likely win is because of the Grizzlies’ tendency to choke leads in games. Last year in the play-in they blew a 6 point lead with 2 minutes left and lost, and this season in the two play-in match ups they blew 21 point lead to Spurs and a 9 point lead with two minutes left to the Warriors. Granted, they won both of these games, but a team as good as the Jazz, won’t let them get away with such inconsistency.
The Jazz are superior team, and they should win this series convincingly.
Why the Grizzlies could still win:
One thing going for the Grizzlies right now is that Mitchell and Conley could still be affected by their injuries which had them missing the final stretches of the regular season. If this severely affects their play, the Grizzlies 6th ranked defense could slow down the Jazz’s three point barrage. The Grizzlies also have momentum on their side, as they won 5 of their last 6 regular season games and followed that up by winning both of their play in games. They’re firing on all cylinder right now, so if Ja Morant becomes the best player in this series and the Grizzlies find a way to hold on to whatever leads they get, it’s possible they could make this matchup closer than it seems.
Phoenix Suns (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Prediction: Lakers 4 – 2
Reasoning:
The Phoenix Suns saw lots of improvements following their successful bubble performance last year. After barely missing the playoffs, it looked like they’d have a real chance to break through this year. They added Chris Paul, greatly enhancing their offense, which went from a rating of 111.7, which was 12th in the league, to a rating of 117.2, which was 5th in the league. The Suns defensive rating remained numerically about the same, but it went from being ranked 17th last year to being ranked 5th this year as offense throughout the league took a big jump. This all resulted in the Suns not just making the playoffs but also having the 2nd best record in the NBA. Their reward? A First Round matchup against the reigning NBA champions: the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers secured the 7th seed after winning a thriller over the Golden State Warriors. Their defense was key in this victory, as it forced 20 turnovers, including eight in the 3rd quarter to begin a run that led to them coming back and winning the game. While the Warriors defense was able to slow down Davis and LeBron, it’s hard to believe that anyone on the Suns is capable of a comparable defensive performance. Deandre Ayton was the best interior defender on the Suns, and he will likely be matched up against Davis. However, Ayton doesn’t have the agility to handle Davis to handle him when he’s stretched beyond the post. This will be an extremely valuable matchup for the Lakers, and it will boost their offense which struggles at times. On the other end of the floor, the Lakers should thrive, as they have the #1 defense in the NBA and are capable of slowing down any team.
In terms of head-to-head matchups, it may look bad for the Lakers, as they’re 1-2 against the Suns. However, they weren’t healthy in any of the games. They lost one by 10 points when Davis was injured, and one by 17 points when both LeBron and Davis were injured. Even in their most recent matchup, which they won, LeBron was injured. This was the one matchup that Davis actually played in, and he was unstoppable, putting up a statline of 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. Although he won’t need to score that much now that LeBron is by his side, Davis should still be a dominating matchup for the Lakers. In terms of experience, the Lakers have a significant advantage, as they’re coming off a championship season, while no one on the Suns outside of Chris Paul has even been in the playoffs. Also, LeBron and Davis have always elevated their play in the playoffs, while Chris Paul has had plenty of times when he’s regressed in the postseason.
The Lakers might be the 7th seed, but we think they’re the best team in the West and expect them to win a tough series.
Why the Suns could still win:
In order for the Suns to win they’ll need Booker and Paul, their two stars, to not only maintain their regular season play, but also elevate it significantly. They both had great offensive years this season, with Booker averaging 25.6 ppg on 48.4 fg% and 34.0 3p% and Paul averaging 16.4 ppg 8.9 apg on 49.9 fg% and 39.5 3p%. If Booker can increase his efficiency and Paul can improve his playmaking abilities the Suns could have better luck against the Lakers’ elite defense.
On the other end of the floor the Suns will need stellar defensive performances from both Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges, who will be tasked with guarding Davis and LeBron respectively. The Lakers’ offense hasn’t been as good as it was last year, falling from 11th in the league to 24th this season. If Bridges and Ayton can slow down the Lakers’ stars, who have shown in the past to be capable of elevating their play in the playoffs, then the series could be a lot closer.
Denver Nuggets (3) vs Portland Trail Blazers (6)
Prediction: Nuggets win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
The Denver Nuggets had a thrilling playoff run last year, completing two 3-1 comebacks to reach the Conference Finals before losing to the eventual NBA Champions. This year they looked poised to make another deep postseason run, but then playoff star Jamal Murray was ruled out for the season after he tore his ACL. This could have severely tanked the Nuggets’ playoff chances, but they maintained their high seed, thanks to the emergence of Michael Porter Jr. He got an increased offensive role and exploded as a result: excluding the final three games where he barely played, MPJ averaged 25.4 ppg on an unbelievably great 57.9% from the field and 50.8% from three in the Nuggets’ last 18 games of the season. The Nuggets ended up having a 16-8 record without Murray, including a 13-5 finish, and this was even a little bit better than their 31-17 record with him. This play has also given the Nuggets the 7th ranked offense in the NBA.
Even with the Nuggets’ heroics, the Blazers still had the better offense, as theirs ranked 2nd in the league. This was fueled by Damian Lillard’s elite production, as he averaged 29/4/8 on 45/39/93 shooting splits. McCollum was also a lethal 2nd option, putting averages of 23/4/5 on 46/40/81 shooting splits. That said, the Blazers’ offense was only 0.7 points better than the Nuggets’. The difference on defense, however, was much more pronounced.
The Nuggets had an average defense, being ranked 12th in the league, yet this was still 3.9 points better than the Blazers. This is because the Blazers had the 2nd worst defense in the entire NBA, and this could lead to their demise. In addition to having to deal with MPJ, they’ll have to find a way to guard presumptive NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, who averaged 26/11/8 on highly efficient 57/39/87 shooting through the regular season. The Blazers will be forced to try to outscore the Nuggets, and their defense won’t make that an easy task.
This series could easily go either way, but we’re defaulting to the team that looked better in the regular season.
Why the Blazers could still win:
In the 2019 playoffs we saw these two teams face off against each other in the 2nd Round and the core players were pretty similar. In that series, Jokic was amazing, averaging 27.1 ppg, 13.9 rbg, and 7.7 apg on 52.2 fg% and 46.2 3p%. If the Blazers could win in spite of such a dominating performance from Jokic, they can easily do it again.
Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs Dallas Mavericks (5)
Prediction: Clippers win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
After they choked a 3-1 lead against the Denver Nuggets in historic fashion last year, the Los Angeles Clippers came back even stronger, still expecting to win a championship. They retooled around their two stars, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, replacing Montrezl Harrell with Serge Ibaka and Luke Kennard, and trading 6th-man scorer Lou Williams with floor-general and playoff-performer Rajon Rondo. However, we haven’t gotten much of a chance to see the results of these additions because the two stars missed a lot of games, again. Kawhi missed 20 games and George missed 18, and this led to them getting a lower seed than what they were capable of. The Clippers’ biggest improvement was their outside shooting, going from 6th to 1st in 3p%.
Following what was then the greatest offensive season of all time, the Dallas Mavericks made a damaging move, trading elite shooter Seth Curry for wing defender Josh Richardson. This resulted in their offense falling to 7th in the league, but it didn’t slow down the young superstar Luka Doncic, who put up MVP-level numbers of 28/8/9 in his third season. However, the defense also regressed going from being ranked 18th in the league 20th this season. This will be a problem against the Clippers, who were the NBA’s best 3-point shooting team and had the 4th best offense overall, led by their highly efficient stars Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 25/7/5 on 51/40/89 shooting, and Paul George, who averaged 23/7/5 on 47/41/87 shooting. Their stars also had a big impact on the Clippers’ defense, which was ranked 8th in the NBA. By being elite on both ends of the floor, the Clippers ended up having the 2nd best net rating the league, which is much better than the Mavs’ 11th best net rating. Luka is capable of being the best player in the series, but that wasn’t enough last year, and the Clippers are even better this year.
This has the potential to be a competitive series, but the Clippers should be expected to win.
Why the Mavericks could still win:
Playoff Doncic is real. Last season in his playoff matchup against the Clippers, Doncic averaged 31.0 ppg, 9.8 rbg, and 8.7 apg on good efficiency: 50.0 fg% and 36.4 3p%. Playoff Paul George was also real, as he had several horrendous games, finishing the series on 35.8 fg% and 27.5 3p%. These two factors allowed the series to be competitive, with the Mavs losing 4-2. However, they should have another advantage as Kristaps Porzingis should be healthy this time after getting injured midway through the series last year. He could end up being the second star the Mavs need. If the Mavs were able to win two games last series despite Kristaps being injured, it’s possible that they could win this time around if Kristaps take a Doncic-level jump in the playoffs.
All-Star Analytics 