In this post we’ll go over each of the Eastern Conference First Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong. To see how we got here, make sure to check out our play-in predictions for the East where we went a combined 2/3.
Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Washington Wizards (8)
Prediction: 76ers win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
The Philadelphia 76ers revamped their roster following their poor playoff performance last year. They added shooters, namely Danny Green and Seth Curry, to improve the spacing around Embiid and Simmons. Additionally, great improvements from Tobias Harris and MVP-level play from Joel Embiid led to the 76ers convincingly getting the first seed in the Eastern Conference, a huge jump from being the 6th seed last year.
The Wizards took a much different path to the playoffs, starting 17-32 before finishing the season on a 17-6 tear and winning in the second round of the play-in to eke into the 8-seed. The Wizards’ stars, Westbrook and Beal, played extremely well in their must-win game against the Pacers, but they struggled immensely against the Celtics in the first round of the play-in. Given that the 76ers have the second best defense in the entire league, headed by the on-ball defense of Simmons and the interior presence of Embiid, chances are the Wizards will end up looking closer to the team that got shut down by the Celtics as opposed to the team that dominated the Pacers. Also, with Embiid’s elite rim protection, the Wizards could be forced into shooting a lot of 3’s, which isn’t something they’re comfortable with, given that they shoot 3’s at the second lowest rate in the league and hit them at a below average rate. On the other end, the 76ers actually have a similar approach. They shoot the 26th most 3’s in the league, but they actually make them at the 11th highest clip. This means that the Wizards will have to deal with Embiid in the post while simultaneously addressing the 3-point threat, which will spread their defense thin. Finally, the 76ers won all three match-ups against the Wizards this season, the most recent being by 26 points. The 76ers earned the top seed in the East for a reason, and they should win this series comfortably.
Why the Wizards could still win:
In order to win, the Wizards will need to capitalize on the 76ers biggest weakness: their perimeter shot creation. As mentioned earlier, the 76ers shoot 3’s at one of the lowest rates in the league, this is mostly due to their lack of shot creation. Their best shooters, Danny Green and Seth Curry, are primarily spot-up shooters, and rarely create their own shoots. If the Wizards can clog the paint successfully and close out the 76ers’ shooters, they could slow down the 76ers’ offense. There’s also a chance that Harris and Simmons could regress, which is something they’ve done in previous playoffs. Most importantly though, the Wizards will need both Beal and Westbrook to be great for the entire series. Beal was 2nd in the NBA in scoring and Westbrook averaged a triple double. If they play to their full potential and turn this series into a battle of 2 superstars vs 1, it’s within the realm of possibility that they pull off the upset.
Brooklyn Nets (2) vs Boston Celtics (7)
Prediction: Nets win 4 – 0
Reasoning:
The Brooklyn Nets vaulted themselves to the level of championship favorites after they went all-in on this team, and now with three MVP caliber players: Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving, a trio that on paper is arguably better than the Big 3 of the Warriors dynasty two years ago. The Nets offense is ridiculous, as all three of their stars are capable of creating their own shot, and can also hit them at a high rate. This was shown by the Nets’ 118.3 offensive rating, which was the highest in league history. But the Nets were actually even better than this number indicates, as their offensive rating was hurt due to injuries. All three stars missed significant time throughout the 72 game season: Durant missed 40 games, Harden missed 37 games, and Irving missed 18 games. Their stats when they did play say it all: Kyrie averaged 27/5/6 on 51/40/92 shooting, Durant averaged 27/7/6 on 54/45/88 shooting, and Harden averaged 25/9/11 on 47/37/86 shooting.
On the other hand, the Celtics haven’t done anything special this season. They have the 10th ranked offensive and 16th ranked defense, giving them a mediocre 13th ranked net rating. However, they got much worse following the loss of young all-star, Jaylen Brown. He was their second best scorer, and the Celtics finished the regular season by losing 9 out of 13 games after Brown was injured. Lastly, the Celtics lost all three matchups against the Nets this season.
The Nets have the 3 best players in the series, and this shouldn’t be close.
Why the Celtics could still win:
The Celtics will need some special performances from their other young all-star, Jayson Tatum. He’s shown throughout the season to be capable of these offensive showcases, and he could potentially get a few against the Nets’ 23rd ranked defense. He scored 50 against the Wizards in the play in game, and even this might not be enough against this Nets team. The Nets have 3 superstars, and Tatum would have to outshine all of them just to give his team a puncher’s chance.
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Miami Heat (6)
Prediction: Bucks win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
Following a disappointing end to their season in the playoffs last year, the Milwaukee Bucks made one of the best additions of the offseason: replacing Eric Bledsoe, who could not shoot and always choked in the playoffs, with Jrue Holiday, who can shoot very well and is also a great defender. Despite these improvements, the Bucks fell in the regular season standings, leaving them matched with the team that knocked them out last year: the Miami Heat.
After their surprising run to the NBA finals last year, the Heat had a rough start to the season: going 7-14 and finding themselves 13th in the East. They were able to pull it together and finish in the 6th seed, only 1 game behind the 4th seed and only one position off of the 5th seed they had when they made the Finals.
We can gain a lot of insights into how this series might go by analyzing what’s changed from last year. The main reason the Heat were able to pull off the upset was because they stopped Giannis and took advantage of the Bucks’ defensive ideology. Both of these things will be exponentially harder to accomplish this year. For one, stopping Giannis requires multiple players to ‘form a wall’ and block off his path to the basket, leaving other players open when he drives. The Bucks will have to make open 3’s, and they’ve improved greatly in this facet, going from 35.5%, which was ranked 17th last year, to 38.9%, which was ranked 4th this year. The Heat will probably try the same strategy anyways, as they’re giving up the most 3 point attempts per 100 possessions in the league this year after giving up the 2nd most last year. This definitely is good news for the sharp-shooting Bucks. The Heat also benefited from the Bucks’ defensive ideology, which has always been to protect the rim at the cost of outside shots: they ranked 3rd in opponent 3 point attempts per 100 possessions last year and 4th this year. This worked to the Heat’s advantage last year because of their stellar 3 point shooting: ranked second in the league. However, this season their 3 point shooting fell to 19th. Clearly, the Bucks’ flaws, which the Heat were able to exploit last year, don’t match up with the Heats’ strengths this year. Also, the Bucks went 2-1 against the Heat in the regular season, losing once by 11, but winning by 24 and 47 the other two times.
The match up is significantly better for the Bucks this year than it was last year, and they should win a hard-fought series.
Why the Heat could still win:
Just last season we saw these two teams face off in the second round of the playoffs, and it wasn’t even close, with the Heat winning comfortably in 5 games. Also, the two rosters are similar to last year’s with the main difference being the addition of Jrue Holiday to the Bucks, which isn’t itself guaranteed to flip the result of the series. The problem for the Heat is that they’ve played worse this year than last year, but if they can get back to that level then they’ve already proven they have what it takes to win.
New York Knicks (4) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)
Prediction: Knicks win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
This will likely be the closest First Round series. It’s a battle of defense vs offense, as both teams excel in one area while being below average in the other.
The New York Knicks came out of nowhere this season. Coming into the season, the odds had them projected to have the worst win total in the entire NBA. Shockingly, they ended up not just making the playoffs, but even getting home court advantage in the First Round. A lot of this was due to the improvement of Julius Randle. He has carried this team both offensively and defensively in his breakout All-Star season, where he’s averaged 24.1 ppg, 10.2 rbg, 6.0 apg on 45.6 fg% and 41.1 3p%. Even with this offensive production, the Knicks still had the 23rd ranked offense in the league, it was their elite defense, ranked 3rd in the league, which got them this far.
On the other hand we have the Atlanta Hawks. After a rough start to the season they fired their coach and hired Nate McMillan. As a result of his hiring the Hawks made a run in the second half of the season. Unlike the Knicks, the Hawks thrive on offense, where they’re ranked 8th in the league, and struggle defensively, where they’re ranked 21st.
Even though these teams differ in what they’re good at, their net ratings are identical, meaning on paper the teams are very evenly matched. That said, in their head-to-head matchups, the Knicks won all three times, and the Hawks had no answer for Julius Randle, who averaged 37.3 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 6.7 apg on 50.0 3p% and 58.1 fg%. The Knicks also have the arguably better coach in Tom Thibodeau, and the value of coaching increases in the playoffs given that teams have time to prepare and make adjustments. That said, Nate McMillan could end up being more impactful, as the Hawks ended the season on a 26-12 streak after hiring him.
It’s very hard to make a pick here, but we’ll default to the team that won the regular season matchups and has homecourt advantage.
Why the Hawks could still win:
The best aspect for the Hawks is that they have a superior supporting squad around their star, Trae Young. While the Knicks have RJ Barrett and Derrick Rose, the Hawks are much deeper, with players like Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Clint Capella, DeAndre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, Danillo Gallinari, Cam Reddish, and Lou Williams, all of which averaged over 10 ppg. Furthermore, while the Knicks have an offensive star in Randle, the Hawks have one of their own in Trae Young. Young has put up some great stats this year, despite struggling with his efficiency: he averaged 25.3 ppg and 9.3 apg on 43.8 fg% and 34.3 3p%. He put up better numbers last year, and if he returns to that level, he should end up being the best player in this series. If Trae Young is the type of player that steps up his game in the playoffs, there’s no reason why the Hawks can’t win.
All-Star Analytics 