In this post we’ll go over our preview and predictions for the second/final round of the Western Conference play-in tournament. The winner of this game will be awarded the 8th seed in the Western conference playoffs, and the loser will go home. After this game, the full playoff bracket will be set. To see how we got to this point, make sure to check out our previous previews (1, 2, 3), where we’ve gone a combined 4 for 5 on predictions.
Golden State Warriors (8) vs Memphis Grizzlies (9)
Prediction: Warriors
Reasoning:
The Golden State Warriors lost in a thriller against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the Western conference play-in by a score of 100-103. They’ll now face the Memphis Grizzlies, who barely won their play-in game against the San Antonio Spurs 100-96. That said, there’s a very significant gap between the Lakers and Spurs, so if both teams play like they did in their first game, the Warriors should come out on top.
Even though the Warriors lost to the Lakers, they went into the half leading by 13 points and had a 12 point lead midway through the third quarter. Although it was ultimately the Lakers’ defense that helped them prevail, the Warriors still played well on offense. In the beginning, the Lakers were successful at forcing Curry to give up the ball, but the Warriors’ other players stepped up to the challenge by hitting open shots. Stephen Curry soon heated up himself, dropping 37 points on an efficient 12/23 from the field and 6/9 from 3. Even though the Grizzlies also have a great defense, ranked 6th in the NBA, the Lakers’ defense was #1, and the Warriors still managed to play pretty well against it.
The Grizzlies also gave up a big lead in their game, as after leading by 21 points in the final minute of the first quarter, they allowed the Spurs to come all the way back and even take a lead midway through the fourth. The Grizzlies got the win, but blowing a lead of that magnitude is not an encouraging sign. One of the main reasons for the Grizzlies’ narrow victory over the Spurs was the fantastic play of Jonas Valanciunas, who put up a monster statline of 23 points and 23 rebounds. However, he’ll probably now be guarded by Defensive Player of the Year Finalist Draymond Green, who was able to hold the Lakers’ star forward, Anthony Davis, to a mere 12 points in the first 3 quarters. The defensive job will also get easier for the Warriors, as their going from facing a team with two top-10 players to a team with no All-Stars. On the flipside, the Grizzlies are going from facing a team with no All-Stars to a team with a top-5 player in Steph Curry.
Lastly, the Warriors and Grizzlies already played a high-stakes match in the last regular season game just 5 days ago, with the 8th seed in the play-in tournament on the line. The Warriors were able to win that one by 12 points, and we should expect a similar result this time around.
Why the Grizzlies could still win:
Even though Curry has been extremely hot for the last 2-3 months, he’s still capable of having a bad game, and the Grizzlies might be able to help make this happen. Also, even if Curry plays relatively well, it’s still possible that the other players on the Warriors won’t hit open shots. The Grizzlies held the Spurs to a horrifically inefficient 35.1% shooting from the field in their play-in game, and while this was probably the fault of the Spurs’ offense, it’s possible that the Grizzlies defense might be able to do something similar to the Warriors, at least to the players other than Curry. There’s also hope that Valanciunas will come close to replicating his previous performance. In the 38 minutes he played against the Spurs, the Grizzlies outscored the Spurs by 26 points, and in just 10 minutes that he didn’t play the Grizzlies got outscored by 22. The Grizzlies might respond by playing him even more, and it could pay off. There’s a big gap between the Grizzlies at their best and at their worst, but if they play near their best they’re definitely capable of winning a game against the Warriors.
All-Star Analytics 