In this post we’ll go over our preview and predictions for the first round of the Western Conference play-in tournament. Make sure to check our post for the Eastern Conference as well, which also explains the play-in format.
Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs Golden State Warriors (8)
Prediction: Lakers
Reasoning:
After facing each other in four consecutive NBA Finals from 2015-2018, LeBron James and Stephen Curry will once again face off against each other in the post-season. However, instead of fighting for a championship, they’ll be fighting for the 7th seed in the playoffs, a situation neither team expected it would stuck in six months ago.
Following their championship-winning season, the Lakers were expected to again finish at or near the top of the Western Conference standings. However, their two elite players LeBron James and Anthony Davis played a combined 56% of possible games, and as a result the Lakers’ regular season record took a big hit, landing them in the 7th seed. That said, LeBron and Davis will be playing, and the Lakers were 19-8 in the regular season when both of them played, which was a win rate that would have landed them in the 2nd seed had they maintained it through the whole season.
The Golden State Warriors have also struggled, with much of this being caused by their second best player, Klay Thompson, being sidelined for the full season due to injury. Despite that, they were still able to make a run at the end of the season to finish inside the top 8. The fact that they even made the post season is thanks to Curry, who led the league in scoring, averaging 32.0 ppg on highly efficient 48/42/92 shooting splits. The problem for the Warriors is that they’ve had no consistent scoring threat outside of Curry, and given that the elite Lakers defense will be able to fully focus on stopping him, there’s a good chance that Curry and Warriors could struggle.
On the other hand, it’s much more likely that we’ll see the Lakers improve in this post-season. LeBron has reached the Finals 10 times, and he’s always elevated his game, especially in the biggest moments. This might not exactly be a game 7, as the loser will still get one more chance to make the playoffs, but it is still similar to an single-elimination game, where LeBron has proven to be unstoppable. Having played in 8 game 7’s in his career, LeBron has put up averages of 34.9 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 5.6 apg on 49/33/78 shooting splits. If he plays anywhere close to that level, that combined with the league’s #1 defense should be more than enough for the Lakers to start of their quest to repeat as champions with a win.
Why the Warriors could still win:
Stephen Curry. Despite teams trying their best to stop him, Curry averaged 36.9 ppg on 43.7 3P% in his final 24 games of the season, and during that stretch the Warriors went 16-8. He’s had hot nights and he’s had cold nights, but given that it’s only one game, Curry could easily go off for a huge performance. Combining this with the fact that the Lakers’ stars LeBron and Davis might not be fully healthy, the Warriors do have a path to victory.
Memphis Grizzlies (9) vs San Antonio Spurs (10)
Prediction: Grizzlies
Reasoning:
Unlike the other play-in which is star-studded, this one features a clash of two teams that didn’t have a single All Star between them this season.
In a season where a record-breaking number of NBA players averaged 20 ppg, the Grizzlies managed to exceed expectations despite having no such player on their team, finishing just one game back of the eighth-seeded Warriors. This was due in large part to their defense, which was ranked 6th in the league, as compared to their offense, which was only ranked 15th. The Grizzlies also had a relatively strong finish, winning 5 of their last 6.
On the other hand, the Spurs lost 5 of their last 6, punctuating a bad finish to a season that saw them lose out of the top-8 spot they’d been maintaining for months. Some of this was due to missing players, as former all-NBA player LaMarcus Aldridge left the Spurs after playing only 21 games with the team, and their third-leading scorer Derrick White suffered a season-ending injury after playing 36 games. Each of these losses had a clear impact: the Spurs had a 0.571 win rate with Aldridge compared to a 0.412 without win rate without Aldridge, and and a 0.500 win rate with White compared to a 0.417 win rate without him. This also led their offensive and defensive ratings to finish significantly worse than Grizzlies, with their offense being ranked 21st in the league and their defense being ranked 17th.
Although only one seed separates them in the standings, the Grizzlies have been a noticeably better team over the course of the regular season, and they’ve also been the better team as of late. As a result, they should be expected to win.
Why the Spurs could still win:
The Spurs do have some advantages on their side. For one, they have one of the greatest coaches in NBA history in Greg Popovich, who has won 5 championships and knows how to make post-season adjustments. They also have DeMar DeRozan, who has post-season experience and is just as likely to have a scoring outburst any player on the Grizzlies given that he led both teams in scoring with 21.6 ppg in the regular season. The Grizzlies might look like the better team, but neither team is that great, and the gap definitely isn’t insurmountable.
All-Star Analytics 