To add excitement and give more teams a chance, the NBA has implemented a play-in tournament format this season to determine who the 7th and 8th seeds will be in the playoffs. Going off of regular season standings, the 7-seed will play the 8-seed, with the winner getting the 7th seed in the playoffs. The loser will play the winner of the 9-seed and 10-seed to determine who gets the 8th seed in the playoffs. The key difference is that unlike a playoff series, each of these matchups will only be one game, meaning anything could happen. This left us unsure of whether it was worth making predictions for this stage, but we decided that if we’re going to predict the rest of the playoffs, doing this as well won’t hurt.
In this post we’ll go over our preview and predictions for the first round of the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.
Boston Celtics (7) vs Washington Wizards (8)
Prediction: Wizards
Reasoning:
After making it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 3 of the last 4 seasons, expectations were high for the Celtics. However, a disappointing regular season has left the Celtics in the play-in tournament, where they’re still fighting to earn a playoff spot. To make matters worse, young star Jaylen Brown suffered a season-ending injury down the final stretch of the season, causing the the Celtics to lose 9 out of their last 13 games. Brown was key piece to the Celtics, and before getting injured he was 2nd in points per game and 2nd in win shares for the Celtics.
On the other hand, the Washington Wizards finished the season incredibly well. After a 17-32 start, they went 17-6. Those six losses were by deficits of 4 to the Hawks, 1 to the Hawks, 1 to the Bucks, 1 to the Mavs, 3 to the Spurs, and 28 to the second-seeded Suns. The Wizards also had many notable wins throughout the season: Nets (twice), Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers (twice), Jazz (twice), and others. The Wizards have shown recently that at their best, they’re an elite team.
The Wizards have been the better team recently, and when it comes to the postseason, where star power matters more than ever, it’s the Wizards that have arguably the two best players in this game. Bradley Beal finished second in the NBA in scoring this season, with averages of 31.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg. He was also unstoppable against the Celtics in the 3 games they played against each other in the regular season, averaging 40.7 ppg on 55.3 FG% and 45.8 3P%. Additionally, Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double for the fourth time in his career, putting up a monster statline of 22.2 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 11.7 apg. With the momentum and firepower on their side, the Wizards should be able to win this game.
Why the Celtics could still win:
To start with, Beal might not play, and even if he does he likely won’t be at 100%. Besides eliminating the Wizard’s top scoring threat, this could force Westbrook to take on a larger scoring role, which could make the defensive job for the Celtics either, as the could pack the paint and dare the Wizards to shoot 3’s. The Wizards are 29th in the league in 3 point attempts and 23rd in percentage, and their only rostered, non-injured player who shoots above 40% on 3-pointers is Cassius Winston, who probably won’t play any significant minutes. This means the Wizards could struggle if they’re forced to take outside shots.
The other reason the Celtics could win is that they have someone capable of being the best player in the game: Jason Tatum. He put up averages of 26.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.3 apg, and addition to having playoff experience, he has shown he’s capable of having big games, dropping 60, 53, and 44 point games in just the last month of the season. If Tatum plays at an elite level, it’s very possible for the Celtics to win this game.
Indiana Pacers (9) vs Charlotte Hornets (10)
Prediction: Pacers
Reasoning:
The Pacers fell short of expectations this year, finishing outside of the top 8 just one season after they were 4th in the Eastern Conference. Part of this has been due to having a weaker roster. TJ Warren, who led the team in scoring last season, opted to take a season-ending surgery after only playing 4 games. Victor Oladipo, who has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons, was traded away for Caris Levert. However, there were still injury issues, as Levert missed 27 games, and additionally Brogdon missed 16 games, and Sabonis missed 10 games. Levert will miss this game, and this is a big blow to the Pacer’s offense, which averaged what would be the 3rd most points per game at 117.8 with Levert, but only 113.0 ppg without him, which would be 15th in the league.
However, the Hornets also have their own injury issues. Unlike the Pacers, the Hornets were actually exceeding their expectations for most of the season. They were 4th in the Eastern Conference 48 games into the season, but injuries to Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball resulted in the Hornets falling to the bottom half of the standings. Although LaMelo has returned, Hayward remains out, and this will hurt the Hornets. The Hornets have been just 9-19 without Hayward this season. With Hayward the Hornets averaged 111.0 ppg, but without him their scoring average drops all the way to 107.1 ppg, which is 25th in the league. The Hornets also ended the regular season by losing their last 5 games, slipping out of the top 8.
In that same stretch, the Pacers have shown signs of heating up, with Sabonis having a hot streak to finish the season. In his final 9 games since returning from his injury, Sabonis averaged 23.0 ppg, 14.1 rpg, and 10.7 apg. This is again another really difficult game to predict, but our pick is the team that has the momentum on their side.
Why the Hornets could still win:
Despite dealing with injuries, the Hornets still have a very real chance of winning, and this is due to them having multiple players capable of going off for a big game. The Hornets have evenly distributed their scoring responsibilities throughout the season, but for a single game, any one of Terry Rozier, LaMelo Ball, Devonte’ Graham, PJ Washington, Miles Bridges, or Malik Monk is capable of dropping 40, and that could easily be enough to put the Hornets on top. Additionally, the Pacers don’t have a volume scorer of their own either. Neither team has anyone averaging 21 ppg, and given that it’s going to take more than that in a single-elimination game, the Pacers could fall short if the Hornets are able to slow down Sabonis while heating up on their own.
All-Star Analytics 