15. Oklahoma City Thunder
After finishing as the fifth seed last season, and barely losing to the Houston Rockets in the first round, the Thunder completely blew up their team, trading away players and acquiring future draft picks. The Thunder lost five of their top seven leaders for average minutes played per game: Chris Paul, Dennis Schroeder, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, and Terracnce Ferguson. Additionally, they didn’t really get players capable of replacing them. They’re left Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a bunch of players who you wouldn’t expect to see starting on a team. To illustrate this point, their starting lineup consists of: Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Hamidou Diallo, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, and Al Horford. Outside of SGA, this team is a mess. None of those four players should be starting on a quality team. It gets no better on the bench: George Hill, Mike Muscala, Theo Maledon, Justin Jackson, and Trevor Ariza. Even though some players have showed a lot of promise during the preseason, it’s much more likely that their play is a result of empty stats on an empty team. Although they could exceed expectations and choose not to tank, at least on paper, the Thunder appear to be the worst team in the conference.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
After finishing with the third worst record in the NBA last season, the Minnesota Timberwolves were granted the first pick in the draft. With that pick they decided to draft Anthony Edwards, who says he is “not really into basketball”. This is a horrible fit for a franchise which has shown to have culture issues in the past. Furthermore, Anthony Edward’s previous coach said that he needs to be drafted by a team that can mentor him and have strong leaders for him. The Timberwolves are one of the furthest teams in the NBA from being able to offer that. As expected, Edwards struggled during the preseason, showing few flashes of the player scouts thought he was. Outside of Edwards, the Timberwolves didn’t have too many impactful offseason moves, the most notable being signing Ricky Rubio. He will likely play substantial minutes for his former team. These few miniscule improvements won’t benefit the Timberwolves that much, so they will probably finish with a similar record to last season, leaving them near the bottom of the west again.
13. Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings finished as the 12th seed last season, merely 3 games behind the 8th seeded Timberwolves. This year they will likely be in contention again. Similarly to last season the gap between the 13th and 8th seeds will be narrow. The most impactful move that occured with the Kings is losing their starting wing: Bogdan Bogdanovic. His scoring will definitely be missed, but some of the other players will likely be able to fill in for him. Additionally, the Kings brought in Hassan Whiteside through free agency and drafted Tyrese Haliburton. Both will be valuable off the bench. The Kings undeniably got worse this offseason, but they still have a chance of contending for the playoffs if their younger players can step up.
12. San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs finished as the 11th seed last season, 1.5 games behind the eighth seed. They will be in contention for the playoffs again this season. The Spurs didn’t lose or sign anyone noteworthy this free agency. The main change this season is the drafting of Devin Vassell. The two-way guard will have a bright future with the franchise, as the Spurs have shown to be one of the best teams in the NBA for developing prospects. His addition will boost the Spurs chances at the playoffs but the teams listed above them are definitively better. To make the playoffs Dejounte Murray and Derrick White will need to have breakout seasons, which some expect to happen.
11. Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies lost in the play-in against the Portland Trailblazers last season. After narrowly missing the playoffs, the Grizzlies made no noteworthy offseason acquisitions. This will likely lead to the Grizzlies having a similar record to last season, and missing the playoffs again. The lack of stars also deeply hurts this team. Ja Morant is the closest to being a star on the team, but he didn’t even average 18 ppg last season. The Grizzlies will have to hope for drastic improvements for their younger players to make the playoffs.
10. New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans nearly made the playoffs last year, even though they finished as the 13th seed, they were only 4 games back of the eighth seeded Trail Blazers. The Pelicans were given the 13th pick as a result, and they drafted Kira Lewis. He will provide guard depth and could be a valuable asset this season. Outside of the draft, the Pelicans traded Jrue Holiday and some draft picks to get Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe. This was a good trade for the Pelicans, as they are focused on developing Lonzo Ball, and Steven Adams will be a good fit with Lonzo. The Pelicans are an extremely young team, so if they can see some improvements from Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes, and Nickeil Walker-Alexander they could easily make the playoffs. The main x-factor, however, for the Pelicans will be Zion. During the limited time he was able to play last season he showed that he was a top 20 player. If he’s able to play at his best during the entire season it’ll be hard to imagine the Pelicans missing the playoffs, otherwise they will merely be in contention.
9. Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns finished as the 10th seed last season after going 8-0 in the bubble, half a game back of the eighth seed. The way the Suns finished last season gives a lot of promise for their team this season. The Suns made some noteworthy moves this offseason. In the draft they took Jalen Smith with the tenth pick, who could be valuable off the bench when Ayton is resting. During the offseason, the Suns also acquired Chris Paul and Jae Crowder at the cost of losing Kelly Oubre and Ricky Rubio. Chris Paul is 35 yeras old, and even though he played as if he was near the top of his career last season, its likely we’ll see some regression this year. The Suns have a very strong lineup, and if they play like they did in the bubble last season they could easily make the playoffs.
8. Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz finished as the 6th seed last season, only 1.5 games behind the 3rd seed. It’s likely that there will be a small gap between 8th and 3rd seeds, so the Jazz could end up a few spots higher in the standings. After a first round exit last year, the Jazz signed no one noteworthy. They kept pretty much the exact same squad as least year, and extended a few of their players. Even with the lack of moves, the Jazz are amongst the second tier of Western conference teams. The reason it’s more likely to see the Jazz near the bottom of the Western conference playoff picture is because the Blazers, Mavericks, and Warriors will all improve this season and overtake them.
7. Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets finished as the 4th seed last season. After losing in the second round to the Lakers, multiple Rockets players became disgruntled and wanted out. This led to the Rockets trading Russell Westbrook for John Wall. This is undeniably a downgrade, as neither is able to shoot, but Westbrook is a much better driver and passer than Wall. Additionally, at the time of the trade, we don’t know if Wall will be playing like he did at his prime before his injury. In free agency, the Rockets paired up Wall with his old teammate Demarcus Cousins. Although Cousins has been injured for the last few seasons, he has shown significant promise during the preseason, and will be valuable player off the bench this season. In addition to Cousins, the Rockets also signed Christian Wood to a $40 million contract. Wood didn’t play very well during the start of the season for the Pistons, but once he began to get more opportunities in the second half of the season he became extremely valuable, and the best player on the Pistons. All of these additions likely leave the Rockets at a similar record to last year’s. James Harden has also become disgruntled, and he has demanded a trade. There are many rumors of Harden being traded, and if this does happen, the Rockets will likely fall a few spots in the standings and could miss the playoffs.
6. Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers were the eighth seed in the playoffs last season. After losing to the Lakers in the first round, the Blazers made only one noteworthy addition, but that one move will drastically improve their roster: Robert Covington. Covington will provide the Blazers with much needed wing depth, shooting, and defense. The other reason for the Blazers being a higher seed this season is that they will have a full season with Jusuf Nurkic. In the 2018-19 NBA season Jusuf Nurkic played 72 games for the Blazers. That season he established himself as a premier center in the league, attaining the second most win shares on his team. Additionally in the eight games he played in the bubble, Nurkic showed that he could return to his former play, getting the 3rd highest win shares per 48 on the Blazers. These two additions should push the Blazers forward a few spots to the sixth seed in the Western conference standings, or even higher.
5. Golden State Warriors
After Klay Thompson and Steph Curry were injured, the Golden State Warriors finished with the worst record in the NBA last season. They were gifted the 2nd pick in the draft and took James Wiseman with it. Unfortunately, Klay Thompson was injured again prior to this season, and will be out for its entirety. This puts the Warriors in a tough spot. However, they were able to retool their wing players during free agency. They’ll have a full season of Andrew Wiggins now, and they also brought in Kelly Oubre and Kent Blazemore. These three players should be able to provide some of the scoring that Klay would have brought. Additionally, if Draymond Green can return to his best form, Curry can come close to his MVP form, and Wiseman can be a valuable player, this team could easily be as high as the third seed.
4. Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks finished as the 7th seed in the Western conference last season, 4 games back of the third seed. This season many expect Luka to continue to get better and reach his MVP form. If he can do this the Mavericks will not only have home court advantage in the playoffs, but they could also become legitimate title contenders. In last season’s playoffs the Mavericks lost in 6 games to the Los Angeles Clippers, if Kristaps Porzingis had not gotten injured and a few other things went their way, the Mavs could have not only beat the Clippers, but also made the conference finals. This offseason the Mavs only made one noteworthy move. They traded Seth Curry for Josh Richardson. This trade will help boost the Mavs defense, which they need to improve, as their offense was already historically great last season. The one worry for this team is the health of Porzingis. Currently, he is recovering from an injury and is expected to return in January. If his injury problems persist it will hurt the Mavs regular season standings; otherwise, they’ll have home court advantage in the first round.
3. Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets impressed everyone last season in the playoffs. After finishing as the third seed in the West, they completed a 3-1 comeback in back-to-back playoff series. If they are able to recreate their playoff play during the regular season they will again be a top 3 seed in the west. The only impactful move from their offseason is that they lost Jerami Grant. Although this will definitely hurt them, it may not be all bad. Michael Porter Jr should be able to replace him nicely, and provide similar value. Last season as he got more opportunities he looked great for the Nuggets, and he is expected to continue to improve and develop throughout this season. His play is an x-factor for how low this team could fall in the standings. If he’s at least as good as Grant this team will be third seed once again.
2. Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers finished as the second seed last season, with a comfortable 3.5 game cushion to the third seed. After choking a 3-1 lead to the Denver Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs the Clippers made a few moves in the offseason. After losing Montrezl Harrell they replaced him with Serge Ibaka, who may be more valuable for the Clippers. In addition to Ibaka, the Clippers also brought in Luke Kennard. Kennard will provide the Clippers with another shooting threat of the bench. This team hasn’t changed much since last season, they possibly even got better, so they will likely finish with a similar record and the second seed in the Western conference.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers finished as the top seed in the West, and after winning the NBA finals, they managed to get even better this offseason. Even though they lost Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Dwight Howard, the Lakers were able to bring in Dennis Schroeder, Montrezl Harrell, and Marc Gasol. Which are all clearly upgrades. Even if Anthony Davis and LeBron James rest significantly more than they did last season, these new additions should be able to help maintain a top spot for the Lakers.
All-Star Analytics 