Executive of the Year: Rob Pelinka (Los Angeles Lakers)
Because there weren’t too many blockbuster moves during this offseason, there’s a good chance that the Laker’s president of basketball operations, Rob Pelinka, will win the executive of the year award. Pelinka managed to improve the Laker’s roster more than any other team in the NBA by adding Dennis Schroeder and Montrezl Harrell, both players that averaged 18 ppg last season, as well as veterans Marc Gasol and Markieff Morris.
Other contenders include John Abbamondi of the Brooklyn Nets or any team that trades for James Harden. The justification for John Abbamondi would be that it’s a delayed award for the work that the Nets did two offseasons ago when they got Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Additionally if a team trades for Harden and finishes as a top seed in their conference, their president of basketball operations will likely be rewarded for making the move.
Coach of the Year: Steve Nash (Brooklyn Nets)
Since the 2000-01 season, only three head coaches have won the coach of the year award while having their team finish without a top-3 seed. That narrows down the candidates quite a bit. The most likely winner for this award is rookie coach Steve Nash of the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets haven’t had a top seed in a while, so if this happens this season, there’s a good chance that new coach Steve Nash will be given a lot of credit.
Other candidates include Eric Spoelstra of the Miami Heat, Mike Budenholzer of the Bucks, Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets, Tyronn Lue of the Los Angeles Clippers, Frank Vogel of the Los Angeles Lakers, and Rick Carlisle of the Dallas Mavericks. Any of these coaches could win if their record exceeds expectations, and all seem to have a good chance of getting a top-3 seed. Additionally Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors, Nick Nurse of the Toronto Raptors, and Scott Brooks of the Washington Wizards could also win if their team sneaks up a few spots in the standings.
Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams
Last season Lou Williams fell just shy his fourth sixth man of the year, as it was instead awarded to his teammate, Montrezl Harrell. Still, he was a top-3 finisher, averaging over 18 ppg, and now that Harrell has gone to the Lakers, Williams will probably get more opportunities, and an improvement from last season’s stats should be enough to win the award.
Other potential winners include Dennis Schroeder of the Lakers, Montrezl Harrell of the Lakers, Jordan Clarkson of the Utah Jazz, and Danilo Gallinari of the Atlanta Hawks, as all of these are players who might come off the bench for their teams and have shown they’re capable of being volume scorers.
Most Improved Player: Christian Wood
Last season, center Christian Wood played for the Detroit Pistons. After star center Andre Drummond was traded, Wood saw increased opportunities and minutes. This led to him averaging 22.3 ppg and 9.5 rpg on .562/.410/.759 shooting splits in the final 15 games of the season. However, his averages over the whole season weren’t great, meaning he will appear to have improved significantly if he maintains his production from the end of last season. Also, if Harden gets traded, Wood could get even more opportunities to boost his stats, which would help him win the award.
Other candidates for most imporved player include Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets, DeAndre Ayton of the Phoenix Suns, and OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.
Jamal Murray showed he was one of the best guards in league last season in the playoffs, increasing his scoring average by 8 points per game. However, in the regular season Murray hasn’t ever been great, meaning he could potentially appear to improve significantly if he replicates his playoff production during the regular season.
The main chance for DeAndre Ayton winning most improved player is that he could improve greatly due to playing alongside star point guard Chris Paul. Chris Paul is a good passer and mentor, so he could help Ayton improve and get more opportunities, and Ayton might also be rewarded if the Suns snap their playoff drought.
Lastly, OG Anunoby showed strong improvements last season, increasing his points per game by 3.6, and his three point shooting by nearly 6%. His usage should continue to rise this season, as the Raptors lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, so OG Anunoby could take another step forward to reach the next level.
Rookie of the Year: LaMelo Ball
LaMelo Ball was drafted with the third pick in the 2020 NBA draft by the Charlotte Hornets. Throughout preseason, LaMelo has shown the potential to be the best rookie from his class. He showcased his prolific passing ability, although he has looked passive at times and probably will need to increase his scoring. Also, since the Hornets don’t appear to be a great team, LaMelo should have a lot of opportunities to score and play. The other potential winners are Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman, or pretty much any high pick in the 2020 draft.
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis
Last season, Anthony Davis was second in voting for defensive player of the year. Davis’ advanced defensive stats were slightly worse than Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ended up winning the award. That said, it was a close race last season, and Giannis’ narrative definitely helped his chances. This season, Davis might be the one with the narrative on his side, having won the championship last year, and possibly beginning to grow out from LeBron’s shadow.
The other contenders are Giannis, Rudy Gobert, Ben Simmons, and Bam Adebayo. All of these players were in the top 5 for voting last season.
The main issue for Gobert is that he’s already won the award twice, and voter fatigue may affect many of the voters. Additionally, Gobert is an elite rim defender, but he becomes a liability when he gets switched onto a wing and has to defend outside of the paint.
Ben Simmons was 4th place in defensive player of the year voting last season. Some people argue that he deserved to win, and the main thing holding him back might be that votes could be split between him and his teammate Joel Embiid, who is also an elite defender.
Bam Adebayo might also have the same problem as Ben Simmons, since he plays on the same team as Jimmy Butler, who is also an elite defender.
Most Valuable Player: LeBron James
LeBron James was second place in MVP voting last season, only behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. That was Giannis’ second straight MVP, and it’s likely that voter fatigue will begin to set in this season. Winning three straight MVPs is a feat that has only been accomplished 3 times in history. It takes a transcendental player to do this, and seeing how Giannis has completely choked in his last two seasons in the playoffs, voters might decide that Giannis isn’t deserving of accomplishing such a feat. However, if LeBron rests significant time this season, he probably won’t win; but if LeBron keeps up his production from last season, he has a good chance of winning his fifth MVP.
The other candidates for MVP are Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Anthony Davis. As mentioned before, it is unlikely that Giannis will win again due to voter fatigue and his poor playoff performances.
The MVP is almost always awarded to a top 2 seed in either conference, usually the 1-seed. This means that its doubtful that either Doncic, Jokic, Curry can win the award, as the Mavericks, Nuggets, and Warriors probably will be outside the top 2 in the West. However, this also means that if any of them exceeds expectations and gets a top seed, they’re likely to rewarded.
Kevin Durant could easily win MVP if he returns to how he played at the peak of his career. He has a good chance of leading the Nets to a top-2 seed in the East, and getting a #1 seed should be enough as long as he doesn’t rest too much.
Anthony Davis also received some consideration for last years MVP, placing sixth in the voting. He probably won’t win the award this year for the same reason as last year: LeBron is more valuable than Davis is to the Lakers. It seems as if that fact will again be true this season, so once again, Davis will be a candidate, but he’ll have to outplay LeBron to win the award.
Finals Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers Over Milwaukee Bucks
In the Western Conference the Lakers are undoubtedly the favorite to not only return to the NBA finals, but also repeat as champions. This offseason, they got better and maintained the depth on their bench. The main team that could stop the Lakers is the Los Angeles Clippers, but after last year’s playoffs it seems clear that the Lakers are more likely than not to win.
In the East, the main contenders are the Bucks and Nets, and the Heat and Celtics also seem to have a chance. While Giannis has choked in the playoffs in the past, now would be the perfect time to change the narrative. The Bucks replaced Eric Bledsoe, who has choked even worse than Giannis, with point guard Jrue Holiday. Holiday is a much better shooter than Bledsoe, and he’s also an elite defender. Considering the Bucks have been the top seed for the past two seasons, there’s a good chance that they do it again and make this the time they break through in the playoffs. The other big contender in the East is the Brooklyn Nets. For the Nets to make the finals, Irving and Durant will both have to remain healthy throughout the season, and Durant will have to play like he did before he was injured. If both these things happen, the Nets could easily be the top seed heading into the playoffs. The Miami Heat also have to be considered contenders given that they made the Finals last year. That said, they were only a 5th seed in the East, and they seem to lack the star power of the other Eastern Conference contenders. Also, the Celtics should be considered contenders to reach the Finals since they’ve made the Conference Finals in 3 of the past 4 seasons. They’ve lost every time, but this could be their chance to finally break through. However, they lost Gordon Hayward, so they’ll need both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to make big improvements from last year.
If the Lakers reach the finals, they’ll likely be the favorites to repeat. LeBron and Davis are two of the best players in the NBA, and even if a player like Durant or Giannis manages to match LeBron’s production in a series, the Lakers still have another MVP-caliber player whose production needs to be matched. Additionally, the Lakers have great depth and championship experience, so they’re in a great position to repeat.
All-Star Analytics 