We’ve now reached the Conference Finals, and only 4 teams remain. We’ll review the Eastern Conference Finals in this post, giving the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Boston Celtics (3) vs Miami Heat (5)
Prediction: Celtics win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
The Celtics won in 7 games against the defending champion Toronto Raptors, in most likely the first ever series where the road team won every single game. However, it wasn’t pretty, and many players regressed. Compared to their First Round sweep against the Philadelphia 76ers, Jayson Tatum dropped from 27 ppg to 24 ppg, Jaylen Brown dropped from 22 ppg to 21 ppg, and most alarmingly Kemba Walker dropped from 24 ppg to 17 ppg. That said, their two other starters, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis, improved from 9 ppg to 16ppg and 9 ppg to 10 ppg respectively. While overall this isn’t that bad, it’s a step in the wrong direction.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat dominated the Milwaukee Bucks in the Second Round, winning 4 – 1 against the NBA’s best regular season team. Also, even though they played against a better team, they pretty much sustained the production they had from their First Round sweep against the Indiana Pacers. Leading scorers Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic essentially swapped scoring roles, with Butler going from 20 ppg to 23 ppg and Dragic going from 23 ppg to 20 ppg. Starters Bam Adebayo and Jae Crowder also went from 15 ppg to 17 ppg and 10 ppg to 15 ppg respectively. If the Heat can sustain this, they’ll be very hard to beat.
However, although the Heat have stepped it up, there are some questions about sustaining their level of play. Jimmy Butler, who shot 24.4% from 3-point range in the regular season, is now shooting 50% from 3-point range in the playoffs. He’s only a career 33% 3-point shooter, so there’s a good chance he’ll drop off. Jae Crowder shot 43% from 3-point range while averaging over 10 attempts per game against the Bucks. This was a huge jump from his First Round stats of 33% on 3-pointers on 6 attempts per game. He shot 34% from 3 during the regular season and is a 34% shooter for his career, so chances are that he will also fall off. Furthermore, the Celtics have had the best defense in the playoffs, and they’ve held opponents to just 30% 3-point shooting. Something is going to give, and it seems more likely to be the Heat’s hot shooting.
The other issue with the Heat is that they won’t be able to play the same way they did against the Bucks. The Bucks were centered around Giannis, and the Heat would swarm him, leaving other Bucks players open and daring them to shoot. This won’t work against the Celtics, as they are a more balanced team and have more than one offensive weapon. Also, the Heat got a lot of open 3’s against the Bucks because the Bucks drop their defenders in pick-and-rolls to defend the rim, rather than switching and guarding the three, meaning that the Celtics should be able limit Miami’s attempts if they adjust their defense.
The Celtics won the regular season series 2-1. They first won by 19, overcoming Butler’s 37 points with 31 from Brown and 28 from Walker. They then won by 8, although they were led by 29 points by Gordon Hayward, who will miss at least the beginning of the series. However, the Heat won their most recent matchup in the bubble by 6, despite not having Jimmy Butler and not having any player score more than 21 points. Both teams have shown that they’re capable of winning in various circumstances, and this will likely come down to who executes better.
Overall, this is Boston’s 3rd time in the Conference Finals in the past 4 years, and they arguably have a better roster than the previous two times. This should be the year they break through and reach the Finals.
Why the Heat could still win:
Even though it seems that the Heat might fall off, they’ve still been the better team up to this point in the playoffs. They beat a better team than the Celtics did last round, and they won much more convincingly.
In terms of defense, although the schemes that worked against the Bucks won’t work against the Celtics, it’s possible that the Heat will find other schemes that will. For example, the Raptors tried a box-and-one defense against Kemba Walker in the last two games of their series, and it was effective, holding Kemba to 5 points on 2/11 shooting in Game 6 and 14 points on 5/16 shooting in Game 7. Miami’s coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the league at making adjustments, so they might try what the Raptors did or come up with something completely new.
Also, there’s no guarantee that Gordon Hayward will return for the Celtics. He averaged 18/7/4 in the regular season on 50/38/86 shooting splits, making him a deadly off-ball weapon. His absence has shifted the burden almost entirely on Walker, Tatum, and Brown, and each has had inefficient games as a result of having to take more shots. Without Hayward, the Heat will definitely have an easier time slowing down the Celtics.
The Heat have proven that they’re capable of playing well enough to reach the Finals, and all they have to do is maintain their level of play from last round. There is high chance of an upset here.
All-Star Analytics 