After going 4/4 on Western Conference First Round Predictions (8/8 overall in First Round), we will now predict the results of the 2nd round series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Houston Rockets (4)
Prediction: Lakers win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
In the First Round, the Los Angeles Lakers handily beat the Portland Trail Blazers in 5 games, while the Houston Rockets barely won in 7 games against Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams now face a bigger challenge in the 2nd Round, and this series will come down to the Lakers’ size vs the Rockets’ ultra small-ball lineup.
The Rockets, who shoot by far the most 3-pointers in the NBA, have gone all in on small-ball, and they literally have no centers, with their tallest player Robert Covington being 6’8″. Meanwhile, the Lakers are led by two players bigger and stronger than anyone on the Rockets: LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They additionally often play one of their centers, Javale McGee or Dwight Howard, alongside LeBron and Davis. However, the Lakers showed in the First Round that they’re willing to play Davis at center for extended periods of time, and even in this case they’d still maintain a size advantage. The reason this matters is rebounds, especially offensive rebounds. Even if the Rockets shoot more efficiently, they might suffer if the Lakers get an extra 10-15 shots per game due to offensive rebounds. Also, it will be hard for the Rockets to take advantage of defensive match-ups because when they try, LeBron and Davis are two of the best defenders in the NBA.
Overall, both teams have struggled making shots. The Rockets often get wide open 3-point attempts due to kick-outs from Russell Westbrook and James Harden drives, yet they often manage to go on cold streaks and miss many of them. The Lakers have been even worse from 3, with Danny Green and Kyle Kuzma struggling a lot in the First Round. Both teams have been streaky, going from a horrendous shooting performance to a great shooting performance the next game. This means that multiple games might be decided simply from which team shoots better on 3’s.
The decisive factor will probably be that the Lakers can always fall back from 3-point shooting and focus on LeBron or Davis post-ups, while the Rockets will be stuck with a one-dimensional offense, likely suffering as a result. With LeBron, the Lakers should win comfortably, although they might lose a game or two due to hot shooting from the Rockets.
Why the Rockets could still win:
For the Rockets to win, they’ll have to shoot efficiently and consistently. In the First Round everyone seemed to struggle. PJ Tucker shot well in some games, but in 3 different games he shot 1/5, 1/4, and 1/7. Eric Gordon shot an abysmal 25% from three over the whole 7-game series. James Harden also struggled tremendously, shooting 22/80 from 3 in the series. While all of these are bad signs, they do show that if the Rockets can shoot even just above average, they can be very hard to beat.
The other factor is Russell Westbrook, who missed the first four games of the First Round with a quad injury. He’s a former MVP, and although he’s struggled in the playoffs at times, if he’s willing to give up on shooting jump shots and just focus on drives and post ups, he can give Houston a much-needed boost.
Although things haven’t looked great for the Rockets, if they can shoot efficiently and keep up on rebounds, they do have a small chance of winning.
Los Angeles Clippers (2) vs Denver Nuggets (3)
Prediction: Clippers win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
Both the Clippers and Nuggets won tough First Round matchups. The Clippers beat the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games, but they would have faced serious chances of losing if Kristaps Porzingis did not get injured. The Nuggets completed possibly the least talked about 3-1 comeback ever against the Utah Jazz, winning Game 7 by two points.
Heading into the series, the Clippers are heavily favored, and rightfully so. They have more star power and depth, and their stronger in both offense and defense. Kawhi Leonard averaged 32.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and 5.2 apg in the First Round, and he should be able to replicate that. Additionally, Paul George only averaged 18.5 ppg on 35.8% shooting from the field, and if he steps up his play, the Clippers should be even stronger.
While the Clippers shouldn’t have trouble sustaining their level of play, the Nuggets might. They were led in the First Round by Jamal Murray, who had multiple 50 point games, and the Clippers will need to prioritize stopping him. Luckily for the Clippers, one of their star defensive point guards Patrick Beverly will be returning, and he should be able to at least slow Jamal Murray down. If the Nuggets barely won the First Round even with Murray at the top of his game, any regression on his part should be costly. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are elite wing defenders, and along with Marcus Morris they should be able to handle the Nuggets wings such as Michael Porter Jr, Jerami Grant, and Paul Milsap. They might struggle to guard Nikola Jokic. His most likely primary defenders will be Ivica Zubac, who isn’t great on defense, and Montrezl Harrell, who is 4 inches shorter, than Jokic. However, the Clippers are a very physical team, and Jokic seems to get tired out quickly, so there’s a good chance that they will wear him down.
With better match ups, more star-power, and more depth, the Clippers should win convincingly.
Why the Nuggets could still win:
The Nuggets could win the series if Paul George continues to struggle and a few Nuggets play at the top of their game. In the First Round against the Jazz, Jamal Murray looked unstoppable for most of the games, averaging 31.6 ppg on 55% from the field and 53.3% from 3 over the 7-game series. Although he’ll face an elite defender in Patrick Beverly, he’s shown that he can go off, even in the highest pressure situations.
The Nuggets will also need Nikola Jokic to improve his play. He had 5 games in the first round with above 28 points and good efficiency, including a series-winning shot, and that was against star post defender Rudy Gobert. Clippers’ centers Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac are worse defenders than Gobert, so Jokic should have a chance to go off, and hopefully be the best player on the Nuggets.
There’s also a chance that Paul George will hurt the Clippers, at least for a couple of games. In the First Round he scored only 14, 11, and 9 points in games 2, 3, and 4 respectively, and this was on horrific 10/47 shooting. He also played poorly in Game 6, scoring 15 points on 31.6% from the field. The Clippers were able to overcome some of these bad performances, but it’s possible that the Nuggets could be better on capitalizing if Paul George struggles.
Although things don’t look good, if Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic play at their best, and Paul George plays at his worst, the Nuggets do have a tiny chance of winning.
All-Star Analytics 