After going 4/4 on Eastern Conference First Round Predictions, we now predict the results of the 2nd round series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Miami Heat (5)
Prediction: Bucks win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
The Buck’s were by far the NBA’s best regular season team, and they enter this series as heavy favorites, with star player Giannis Antetokounmpo having won Defensive Player of the Year, and likely his second straight MVP. Unless the Heat can stop him, the Bucks should be able to keep rolling through the playoffs.
In the First Round, Giannis averaged 30.6 ppg, 16.0 rpg, and 6.0 apg. This was no fluke, as it was nearly identical to his regular season averages. While Giannis carried most of the load, starters Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Eric Bledsoe all averaged double digit points per game, and each of them is capable of being the team’s second leading scoring on any given game. With the exception of Giannis, all of the Bucks players are willing shooters, and this opens the lane to give Giannis opportunities to drive.
While the Bucks have the undisputed best player in the Eastern Conference, the Heat don’t really have anyone who can match his production. In the First Round they had Goran Dragic average 22.8 ppg, Jimmy Butler average 19.8 ppg, Tyler Herro average 16.5 ppg, Bam Adebayo averaged 15.0 ppg, and Duncan Robinson averaged 12.5 ppg. While balance can be good, it is a problem if nobody is able to go off and carry the team for a given game. No player on the Heat has had even a 30 point game this playoffs, while Giannis is averaging more than that on the Bucks. Although the Heat are balanced and mostly have willing shooters like the Bucks, it just seems that they lack the star-power to win.
The Bucks are better by almost all metrics, and unless they choke, they should be able to win comfortably.
Why the Heat could still win:
The key for the Heat is stopping Giannis. Luckily, teams have already created a blueprint on how to do this: help defense in the lane. Although everyone on the Bucks will shoot a 3 without hesitation if open, not everyone is actually efficient. In the regular season, they only had 4 players shoot above league average from 3, with George Hill at 46.0%, Kyle Korver at 41.8%, Khris Middleton at 41.5%, and Wesley Mathhews at 36.4%. If the Heat give up 3-point shots to these players, they’ll be in trouble. However, they should be able to help off of bad shooters such as Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe. If the defenders of these players can help stop Giannis, the Heat will live with giving up shots to the Bucks’ supbar shooters. Additionally, the Heat have many good wing defenders that they can put on Giannis, including Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, and Andre Igoudala.
If the Bucks don’t shoot well from 3, the Heat might. Outside of Butler and Bam, all of the Heat’s rotation players are good 3-point shooters. The Bucks give up the most 3-point attempts in the NBA due to their defensive scheme, so it is possible for the Heat to take advantage of this and win games where they have good shooting.
The Raptors shut down Giannis to eliminate the Bucks last year, and the Heat can potentially do the same thing. If they also have efficient shooting, the Heat have the potential to be a real threat, and they have a small but real chance of winning.
Toronto Raptors (2) vs Boston Celtics (3)
Prediction: Raptors win 4 – 3
Reasoning:
Both the Raptors and Celtics had no trouble with their First Round series, sweeping the Nets and 76ers respectively. However, this series will probably be much closer. The Raptors are the higher seed, but they were neck-and-neck with the Celtics in regular season metrics. The Raptors had a net rating of 6.1 and an SRS of 5.97, while the Celtics had a net rating of 6.3 and an SRS of 5.83.
The Celtics will be missing Gordon Hayward who got injured against the 76ers. This will force them to reach deeper into their roster and give extra minutes to inexperienced players. After Hayward was injured, the Celtics resorted to starting Marcus Smart, but this puts their bench in a very tough position. Outside of their starters, only Enes Kanter, Brad Wanamaker, and Semi Ojeleye have played significant minutes throughout the season, and none of these playes made a significant contribution in the playoffs. In the First Round, the Celtics had Jayson Tatum average 27.0 ppg, Kemba Walker average 24.3 ppg, and Jaylen Brown average 21.5 ppg. While the load was spread relatively evenly over these three stars, they didn’t have much support, as no one else on the team averaged more than 8 ppg.
The Raptors, while having less star-power, are more balanced and can get significant contributions from their bench players. In the First Round, starters Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam averaged 21.3 ppg and 20.8 ppg respectively. Additionally, Serge Ibaka and Norman Powell came off the bench and averaged 19.3 ppg and 17.5 ppg respectively. The Raptors also have quality shooters and defenders that can come off the bench in Terence Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Matt Thomas, and Chris Boucher. This means that it will be easier for the Raptors to survive if one of their top players suffers than it will be for the Celtics, who lack depth.
One of the Raptors’ x-factors will be starting shooting guard Fred VanVleet. Although he can be a streaky shooter, he was highly efficient against the Nets, shooting 19/34 on three-pointers. The Raptors’ success will likely be dependent of VanVleet’s performance, and he’s shown he’s capable of leading the team.
The Celtics should also be more exploitable defensively. Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown are the only players that can both shoot and create shots for others. Meanwhile, almost everyone on the Raptors’ rotation has shown their capable of shooting and playmaking, at least to an extent where the defense has to take them seriously. Effectively, the Celtics will have to deal with 5 different threats when they are defending, while the Raptors will be able to focus their defense on the 2 or 3 offensive weapons the Celtics have in the game. The Raptors had the 2nd best defense in the NBA during the regular season, allowing the least points per game, having opponents shoot the lowest three-point percentage, surrendering the least points per possession in transition, and forcing the second most turnovers per game. It should be expected that with time to prepare, they’ll have created a defensive scheme that will force the Celtics’ stars to give up the ball and rely on their role-players. It will be much harder for the Celtics to come up with a similar scheme since the Raptors have more capable shooters and creators.
Although the teams seem pretty closely matched, the Raptors should be favored considering that they were the better regular season team and are operating at full strength.
Why the Celtics could still win:
Although the rosters are comparable, it can be argued that most of the series’ best players are on the Celtics. Fred VanVleet led the Raptors in scoring in the First Round with 21.3 ppg, and on the Celtics, Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, and Jaylen Brown, all averaged more than that. Not only would the series be over if the Celtics have the top 3 scorers; even having the top 2 scorer be on the Celtics should be enough, regardless of how well their bench players perform.
Another factor supporting the Celtics is that they’ve been able to beat the Raptors multiple times this season. In the Raptors’ second game of the season, they lost to the Celtics by 6 points, although this was mainly due to Gasol and VanVleet combining for 9 points on 2/19 shooting from the field. Hayward, Brown, Walker, and Tatum all had over 15 points. Later in the season the two teams split a back-to-back, but at that point Gasol and Powel were both injured. They played a fourth time in the bubble, and with both teams fully healthy, the Celtics blew the Raptors out by 24. Although the Raptors were the higher seed, the Celtics have shown that they’re capable of beating the Raptors.
If the top one or two players in the series are Celtics players, the Celtics will have a good chance of winning, and for that reason, they have very significant upset potential.
All-Star Analytics 