In this post we’ll go over each of the Western Conference First Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs Portland Trail Blazers (8)
Prediction: Lakers win 4-1
Reasoning:
The Lakers were led to the #1 seed by superstar players LeBron James and Anthony Davis. LeBron has reached the Finals 9 times, and he’s shown every year that he plays even better during the playoffs. The Lakers have been the West’s best team during the regular season, while the Trail Blazers struggled to make the playoffs. Heading into the bubble, the Blazers were just 29-37. They’ve been on a hot streak, led by Damian Lillard, who scored 37 ppg in the seeding games, and CJ McCollum, who had several strong showings. However, the Blazers still struggled against weak teams, mainly due to their horrendous defense. They gave up the most points per game in the NBA of all playoff teams, and their opponents scored over 120 points in 7 of their 9 bubble games.
To make things worse, unlike LeBron, Lillard actually shrinks in the playoffs. Since entering the NBA, Lillard has the second worst playoff plus-minus and worst playoff win percentage. Although the Blazers are on a hot streak, the Lakers should win comfortably.
Why the Trailblazers could still win:
The Blazers have had good results recently, winning 6 out of 8 seeding games plus the play-in game for the 8th seed. On the other hand, the Lakers only won 3 out of 8 seeding games. Lillard and McCollum are both capable of going off, and it’s possible that the Lakers won’t be able to match them considering that the Lakers’ offense was 2nd to last in points per game in the bubble. Some of this can be attributed to the Lakers not really trying, as they had essentially clinched the #1 seed before heading into the bubble. However, if the Lakers are slow out of the gate, the Blazers could get off to a lead in the series, and they might have a small chance of winning.
Los Angeles Clippers (2) vs Dallas Mavericks (7)
Prediction: Clippers win 4-2
Reasoning:
The Clippers’ roster has incredible star-power, depth, and experience. This has made them not just favorites to win this series but the favorites to win the Western Conference according to most prediction models and betting markets. They are led by reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and star player Paul George, both of which have proven that they can carry a team in the playoffs. Their depth is ridiculous, with bench players Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell both averaging over 18 ppg. While the Mavericks have star players Luka Dončić and Kristaps Porzingis, neither has been in the playoffs before, and the team doesn’t have as much depth.
The main factor that makes it worrying to pick the Mavericks is that they have struggled all season in winning close games. A recent example is when they were up 7 points with 30 seconds left against the Rockets in their first bubble game, yet still found a way to lose. In games decided by 5 points or less this season, the Mavericks had 8 wins and 20 losses. To put in perspective how bad this is, if the Mavericks had just been average in these games and gone 14-14, they would have been the 3rd seed instead of the 7th seed. Had they been above average, they could have been the #1 seed. To beat the Clippers, the Mavericks will have to win close games, and they haven’t shown that they can do that consistently.
Considering that the Clippers were the better regular season team and their players have proven themselves in the playoffs before, they’re the safe pick when it comes to this series.
Why the Mavericks could still win:
Although it’s not that common, some NBA superstars manage to raise their level of play when it comes to the playoffs, and if Luka Dončić falls into this category, then the Mavericks have a chance. Luka just averaged 29 ppg, 9 rpg, 9 apg in his second NBA season, and even with that production the Mavericks only finished with the 7th seed, mainly due to their clutch-time struggles. Although it seems difficult to top that, Luka has always stepped up his game when it has come to playoff matches in Europe. Luka put himself on the map when he led his team to Europe’s U13 Championship, recording a 50-point triple-double in the finals. In his last season in the Euroleague, he led his team to the championship, winning their equivalent of Finals MVP in the process. He’s done it before, and he could do it again. Kristaps Porzingis will also need to step it up. He averaged 20 ppg this season after returning from injury, but he’s shown that he’s capable of more, and he’ll need to prove it in the first playoff series of his career.
Also, as mentioned earlier, the Mavericks would have been a top team in the NBA if they could have closed out games, meaning that they have significant upset potential if they can be clutch and win games when they’re close.
Denver Nuggets (3) vs Utah Jazz (6)
Prediction: Nuggets win 4-2
Reasoning:
The Nuggets were the 2nd seed last season, coming a 4-overtime game loss away from reaching the Conference Finals. They have essentially the same team this time, and their roster might even have improved, with rookie Michael Porter Jr. averaging 22 ppg in the bubble’s seeding games. The Nuggets are led by the best center in the NBA, Nikola Jokić. Jokić leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists, and he’s able to provide spacing by being a willing 3-point shooter. Although the Jazz have back-to-back DPOY Rudy Gobert, he struggles with perimeter defense, and Jokić had 30 points and 11 rebounds when he faced Gobert in the bubble. The Jazz also have star player Donovan Mitchell, who led the team in scoring with 24 ppg. Unfortunately, he regresses in the playoffs. Last year in the playoffs he averaged 21 ppg on a horrific 32% field goal shooting and 26% three point shooting. To make things worse for the Jazz, they won’t be at full strength, as Bojan Bogdanović, who averaged 20 ppg this season, won’t be playing, and starting point guard Mike Conley will miss the first several games.
The Nuggets are full strength and have proven what they’re capable of, so they’re the safe pick in this series.
Why the Jazz could still win:
Although the Nuggets have been a balanced team, no one even averaged 20 ppg, and this could be problematic if players don’t step up in the playoffs. Jokić should be the one that increases his production, but he’s shown that the can be passive, having too many games where he’s played significant minutes yet shot less than 5 times. Donovan Mitchell, on the other hand, isn’t afraid to shoot, even if he’s missing, so if he goes off and Gobert wins his matchup with Jokić, then the Jazz do have a real chance of winning.
Houston Rockets (4) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (5)
Prediction: Rockets win 4-3
Reasoning:
In the 2019 off-season, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded former MVP Russell Westbrook to the Rockets for regressing star Chris Paul. The Rockets were expected to be championship contenders while the Thunder were expected to rebuild and miss the playoffs. Still, they finished with the same regular season record, and now they find themselves matched in the First Round.
An interesting thing about this matchup is the difference in balance between the teams. In the regular season, the Rockets had James Harden average 34 ppg and Russell Westbrook average 27 ppg. On the other hand, although the Thunder had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Danil Gallinari all average at least 18 ppg, no one on the Thunder averaged more 19 ppg. Harden will almost surely average at least 30 ppg in the series, but there’s a real chance that no one on the Thunder even averages 25 ppg, which would make it hard to imagine them winning the series.
The matchup seems close, especially since Russell Westbrook will miss a couple of games, but it’s hard not to pick the team that has 2 former MVP’s on it.
Why the Thunder could still win:
The main reason the Thunder have a strong chance of winning is Russell Westbrook’s injury. He is supposed to miss “several” games. Although the Rockets have more star power, the Thunder had the same number of wins and losses than the Rockets in the regular season. This means that if the Rockets are missing one of their top-two players, the Thunder might actually be the better team. Also, the Thunder know that they just need to slow down Harden, and Westbrook once he returns, while the Rockets have several players that they need to stop. The Thunder have a very significant chance of winning, and of all First Round predictions, this one seems to have the highest likelihood of being wrong.
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