In this post we’ll go over each of the Eastern Conference First Round playoff series. For each series, we’ll have the prediction, the reasoning, and also an explanation of what it would take for the other team to win and prove us wrong.
Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Orlando Magic (8)
Prediction: Bucks win 4 – 0
Reasoning:
Odds-makers are considering the Bucks championship favorites this year, and for good reason. Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to the top seed in the NBA while averaging nearly 30 ppg and 14 rpg. The Magic most likely won’t be able to match the Bucks’ dominance. They went 3-5 in the bubble, and lost the 7th seed to the Brooklyn Nets. This weak performance was partially due to the loss of forward Jonathan Isaac. The Magic allowed the 5th least points per game this season, but they gave up over 110 points in all four losses against the Bucks. Also, although the Bucks give up the most three pointers per game in the NBA, the Magic probably won’t be able to capitalize, considering that they were near the bottom of the league in three-point shooting. Additionally the Magic have no players shooting above 40% from three. The Bucks will be able to handle the Magic well on defense, and then they will thrive on offense through Giannis and the three point shooters he is surrounded by.
Why the Magic could still win:
Although it might be possible that the Magic win a game or two, there’s almost no chance that they win this series, and it would be maybe the biggest upset in history if they did. That said, the best chance for the Magic would be going on a hot-streak on three-pointers. The Bucks give up the most three pointers per game because of their style of defense that packs the paint. In order to beat the Bucks, the Magic would need four games where they shoot extremely well on three pointers, and they would also need to stop the Bucks on defense, since the Bucks score the most points per game in the NBA. The Magic would also have better chances if the Bucks experience injuries during the series, but to put it in perspective, even if Giannis is unable to play the Bucks would still be the better team.
Toronto Raptors (2) vs Brooklyn Nets (7)
Prediction: Raptors in 4 – 1
Reasoning:
Even though the defending champion Raptors lost both Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, they have finished with a better record than last season. This is due to improvements from Pascal Siakam. Nurse has managed to bring out the best from every player on the Raptors, meaning that anyone on their deep roster could be a threat. The coaching also applies on the defensive end, as the Raptors allow the least points per game in the NBA. On the other hand, the Nets had a mediocre season, finishing with the 7th seed. Furthermore, due to many injuries and opt-outs, many of the Nets players that helped lead them to the playoffs won’t even be playing. The Raptors are the better team, and they should win.
Why the Nets could still win:
Like the Magic, the Nets have almost no chance of winning their first round series. Their only chance would be if Caris Levert goes off against one of the best defenses in the league. Levert only averaged 19 ppg in the regular season, but he was playing behind Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie who averaged 27 ppg and 21 ppg respectively. Now that neither is playing, Levert will have to fill the void and be the best player in the series if the Nets want any chance of winning.
Boston Celtics (3) vs Philadelphia 76ers (6)
Prediction: Celtics win 4 – 2
Reasoning:
In the 2018 Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Celtics beat the 76ers 4-1. There were two main reasons for this: Al Horford limited Joel Embiid and Aron Baynes completely shut down Ben Simmons. Since then, the Celtics have improved by adding Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward, and the 76ers have improved by acquiring “Embiid stopper” Al Horford. Additionally, the 76ers have added Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris. However, the 76ers have struggled to incorporate Al Horford into their offense, and the Celtics still have competent post defenders in Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. To make things worse, the 76ers will be missing star player Ben Simmons. Embiid is one of the best players in the NBA, but on paper he is outmatched. The reason that the Celtics should win is that they have amazing depth, with this season having Jayson Tatum average 23 ppg, Jaylen Brown average 20 ppg, Kemba Walker average 20 ppg, and Gordon Hayward average 18 ppg. Although they’ve split the load together this season, Tatum, Walker, and Hayward have all proven that they’re capable of carrying their own team in previous playoffs.
With so many players that have proven their capable of going off, the Celtics should be able to win the series.
Why the 76ers could still win:
Although the loss of Simmons seems to hurt the 76ers, it could give Embiid the chance to be dominant now that they will have better spacing. When Simmons plays, opposing teams can just have his defender stand in the paint at all times since he not only can’t shoot, but also refuses to shoot from 3-point range, or even the mid-range. Embiid often gets stuck having two bigs in the paint trying to stop him, but now if the 76ers put 4 shooters around Embiid he’ll be able to kick it out if he gets doubled. This season, the 76ers were +11 per 100 possession when Embiid played without Simmons and only +0.6 when Embiid played with Simmons. Embiid will have to be the best player in the series, both offensively and defensively, but there is real upset potential here.
Indiana Pacers (4) vs Miami Heat (5)
Prediction: Heat win 4 – 1
Reasoning:
The Miami Heat are a scary team to face in the playoffs. With one of the best defenses in the NBA, the young squad has held its own against the East’s top teams, going 2-1 against the both the Bucks and Raptors. Teams have struggled stopping one of the best three point shooters in the league: Duncan Robinson. He has made the fifth most threes in the NBA this season, and he shoots at a higher percentage than the four players ranked ahead of him. In addition to strong shooting, the Heat have all-stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, as well as former all-stars Goran Dragić and Andre Iguodala. While the Heat seem to be at top performance, the Pacers are not at full strength. Their only all-star Domantas Sabonis is out of the playoffs due to injury, and former all-star Victor Oladipo has been struggling since returning from injury.
Although the Pacers are higher-seeded, the Heat have more fire-power and should be able to win.
Why the Pacers could still win:
For the Pacers to win this series, they will need TJ Warren to go off. In the bubble, Warren played 6 games, having several good performances, including 53 points against the 76ers, 34 against the Wizards, 32 against the Magic, and 39 against the Lakers. However, he only scored 12 points against the Heat, and he’ll have to do much better than that now that he faces them again in the playoffs. The Pacers could also improve their chances if Victor Oladipo performs like a star. Since his injury, Oladipo hasn’t been productive. In the bubble he averaged 16 ppg on 40% shooting from the field. He’s proven that he can carry a team in the playoffs before, so if Oladipo performs like his old self he would provide the Pacers with more shot creation and much needed threats. Although the Heat should be favored, the Pacers do have a real chance of winning.
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