After a four month break, the NBA is returning in Orlando. A lot of adjustments have been made, and the new format favors some teams over others. Only the 22 out of 30 teams which had a chance of making the playoffs were invited back. Also, while each team had about 20 games left to play, they’ll now only play 8. In each conference, if the 9th seed finishes within 4 games of the 8th seed, there will be a 2-game play-in match where the 8th seed will only need to win once to keep their spot in the playoffs, while the 9th seed will need to win both games.
The three main things that will affect each team is the change in strength of schedule, injuries, and the lack of home-court advantage (no fans). To start with, these were the remaining strengths of schedule before and after the break:
Strength of schedule is calculated by averaging the win percentages of a team’s opponents.
The average strength of schedule increased because only the stronger teams are returning. However, not all teams experienced the same increase in strength of schedule. These are the changes for each team:
The rest of this post and the next will go through each team in order of change in strength of schedule and decide whether or not their overall outlook has benefited or been harmed by the restart format.
Los Angeles Lakers (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.164)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Lakers had the largest increase in schedule strength. This took them from one of the easiest schedules, to now having one of the hardest. Currently they hold a 5.5 game lead over the second seeded Clippers, so they’ll still almost certainly be the #1 seed since only 8 games remain. The main problem is that the Lakers would’ve had home court advantage until the Finals, and now they can’t benefit from their high seed. They are most likely to play the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, and if this had happened in the normal format, the Lakers would essentially have had 7 home games since they share a stadium with the Clippers but have much more fans. Now, they have one less factor working in their favor.
Even with these developments, the Lakers have a high chance of winning the Championship, and they have no excuses.
Miami Heat (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.143)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Miami Heat, currently the 4th seed in the Eastern conference, had the second highest increase in schedule strength. This increases the risk of the Heat falling in the standings, as the 5th and 6th seeds, the Pacers and Sixers, are both only 2 games back. However it’s worth noting that there won’t be much, if any, difference between being a 4th seed and a 5th seed given the lack of home-court advantage.
Toronto Raptors (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.126)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Toronto Raptors are the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference, and they experience a large increase in their schedule strength. This means there is a small chance that the third seeded Celtics, which are 3 games behind, could catch up. This is significant because the difference between the 2nd and 3rd seed, is the difference between likely playing the Magic or playing the stronger 76ers in the First Round. However, it’s worth noting that the Raptors might benefit from the increased rest time since several of their players had minor injuries over the course of the season, including Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, and Kyle Lowry.
Portland Trail Blazers (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.119)
Overall Outlook: Improved
Although they experienced an above average increase in strength of schedule, the Blazers will benefit from having Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins return from injury. Had the season not been delayed, they would not have been able to play. The Blazers, currently the 9th seed, also just have to maintain their standing to reach the play-in, meaning that their playoff chances are probably much higher now than they would have otherwise been.
Los Angeles Clippers (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.108)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Clippers, currently seeded second, had a small chance to catch the first seeded Lakers who are 5.5 games ahead of them, but there’s not any hope now. While the Clippers will likely be stuck with the 2nd seed, their main benefit is that they won’t have to deal with the Lakers’ home-court advantage if they face each other in the Conference Finals. Both teams play in the Staples Center, and even when the Clippers have been the “home” team while playing the Lakers, Lakers fans have still made the Clippers look like an away team. The Clippers will have a leveled playing field against the Lakers, and if they reach the Finals against a team like the Bucks, they again won’t have to worry about home-court advantage.
Houston Rockets (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.095)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Rockets are currently seeded sixth, but they’ve been playing very strongly since trading Clint Capela for Robert Covington and going all in on their small-ball lineup. They were only 2.5 games back of the 3rd seed, but with the truncated regular season, they’ll have less time and a lower chance of climbing the standings, which could likely lead to them having tougher playoff match-ups.
San Antonio Spurs (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.086)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The San Antonio Spurs are currently the 12th seed, although they’re only 0.5 games away from the 9th seed. They had and still have a chance of making the playoffs, but the problem is injuries. Recently, Lamarcus Aldridge, was ruled out of Orlando, due to a shoulder injury. Aldridge has led or been second on the team in most statistical categories, and losing him will make it harder for the Spurs to compete with the four other teams next to them in the standings and reach the play-in round.
Denver Nuggets (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.085)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Nuggets are in the third seed, 1.5 games ahead of the 4th-seeded Jazz, and 2.5 games ahead of the Thunder and Rockets. With less games to be played, it will be easier for the Nuggets to hold on to their 3rd seed position, even though they have a harder schedule. Rookie Bol Bol was given time to recover from his injury, and he will now be able to play. Although he might not have a large impact, he’s shown a lot of potential. Also, the Nuggets won’t have to deal with not having home-court advantage starting in the Second Round.
Oklahoma City Thunder (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.082)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently the 5th seed, only 2.5 games out of the 3rd seed. Although it will be harder for them to climb in the standings, the Thunder’s main advantage is that they are getting back Andre Roberson, who hasn’t played since tearing his patellar tendon in January of 2018. He’s one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and he could have a large impact in the playoffs.
Orlando Magic (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.082)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Orlando Magic are the eighth seed in the Eastern conference, and half a game back of the seventh seeded Nets. However, the Nets’ roster has been depleted in the past months, and the Magic now have a good chance to get the 7th seed and seal their playoff spot. They also won’t have to worry about home-court advantage.
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