This is part 2 of a series examining which NBA teams benefited and which were harmed by the format of the NBA restart. Make sure to check out part 1 first. The main factors that affect this evaluation are change in strength of schedule, injuries, and lack of home-court advantage now that there are no spectators.
Phoenix Suns (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.077)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Phoenix Suns are the 13th seed, and are 6 games back of the 8th seeded Grizzlies. Before the hiatus, the Suns had virtually no chance of outplaying the Grizzlies, Pelicans, Blazers, Kings, and Spurs at the end of the season in order to make the playoffs. Now, due to the new play-in system, the Suns just need a strong 8-grame stretch to reach a play-in. Although it’s a long-shot, making the playoffs is possible for the Suns, and that couldn’t be said before the restart.
Milwaukee Bucks (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.082)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Bucks are the top seed in the East with a 6.5 game lead over the 2nd seed. They’re very likely to have the top record in the NBA. Normally this would mean home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and into the Finals, but now the Bucks won’t get to fully benefit from the work they’ve done to get the top seed, having to play all games on a neutral court. Still, they’re probably the team in the NBA that’s most likely to reach the Finals, and they have a good chance of winning the championship.
Boston Celtics (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.057)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Boston Celtics are currently seeded 3rd in the Eastern Conference and could easily make a playoff run. They had a slightly below average increase in their schedule strength. They’re 3 games behind the 2nd seeded Raptors who were hurt by the new schedule, and 2.5 games ahead of the 4th seeded Heat. The schedule change is beneficial, but the Celtics will most likely finish with the 3rd seed. Their main benefit is that the lack of home-court advantage will be helpful if they make it past the First Round, after which they’d likely face teams with better records.
Indiana Pacers (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.056)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Indiana Pacers are currently the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. There’s no risk of falling below the 6th seed, but there’s a real chance that the Pacers will reach the 6-seed considering that the 6th seeded 76ers are currently tied with them. The reason for this is that they will likely lose their only all-star, Domantas Sabonis. He has left the bubble to receive treatment for plantar fasciitis, and it’s not clear if he will return. If he doesn’t, the chances of pulling off a first-round upset decrease significantly.
New Orleans Pelicans (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.053)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Pelicans are currently 3.5 games behind the 8th seeded Grizzlies. They still have the easiest schedule in the league, giving them a good chance of maintaining distance with the Grizzlies and forcing a play-in match. They should also be able to give Zion more minutes, as he has had more time to heal from his injury. If they make the playoffs, the chances of pulling off a first-round upset also increase since they won’t have to worry about a lack of home-court advantage.
Philadelphia 76ers (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.047)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
One of the teams that suffered the most from the new format is the 6th seeded Philadelphia 76ers. However, it’s mainly their fault. They’ve been a league-best 29-2 at home, and a dismal 10-24 on the road. They’re tied for the 5th seed with the Pacers and might move up, but their biggest strength was their home-court advantage, and now that it’s been lost, the chances of pulling off a playoff run seem much less likely.
Utah Jazz (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.041)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Jazz are holding onto a narrow lead for the 4th seed in the Western Conference. They are 1 game ahead of 5th Thunder and 6th seeded Rockets. They recently lost one of their best players, Bojan Bogdanovic, to a wrist injury. He led the team in 3 point attempts, makes, and percentage. Although they might be able to maintain their seeding, the loss of an efficient second scoring option will significantly lower their chances of making a playoff run.
Sacramento Kings (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.040)
Overall Outlook: Improved
Like the Blazers and Pelicans, the Kings are also 3.5 games out of the playoffs. They have an easy schedule, and they have a decent chance to reach the play-in round if they have a strong 8-game performance. Like several other teams, they now have a chance of making the playoffs after having virtually no chance before the restart.
Brooklyn Nets (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.037)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Brooklyn Nets have suffered perhaps more than any other team. They are the 7th seed, holding a 0.5 game lead over the 8th seeded Magic and a 6 game lead over the 9th seeded Wizards. While the Wizards suffered the loss of star guard Bradley Beal, the Nets lost much more. For various reasons, the following players won’t be present in Orlando: Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan, Spencer Dinwiddie, Wilson Chandler, Taurean Prince, and Nicolas Claxton. This group of players has accounted for half of the total win shares for the Nets this season. Also, Kevin Durant still won’t return, meaning that the Nets will need to replace a lot of their production by having new players step up. It will be a struggle to avoid a play-in match with the Wizards, but even if the Nets make the playoffs, there’s not much hope given the depleted roster.
Dallas Mavericks (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.028)
Overall Outlook: Improved
The Dallas Mavericks, currently in the 7th seed in the Western Conference, are 3.5 games behind the 4th seed, and 7 games ahead of the 8th seed. This means they have nothing to lose, and they could potentially move up in the standings since the teams above them, the Rockets, Thunder, and Jazz, have harder schedules. They have an opportunity to avoid the Clippers in the First Round if they move up, but even if they face them, home-court advantage won’t be an issue now.
Memphis Grizzlies (Increase in Strength of Schedule: 0.021)
Overall Outlook: Weakened
The Grizzlies are hanging on to a 3.5 game lead over the Blazers, Pelicans, and Kings. The Spurs are also 4 games back. They have one of the hardest schedules, and even though it shouldn’t be too hard to hold on to the 8th seed, it’s almost a sure thing that one of the four teams within 4 games will at least equal the performance of the Grizzlies, forcing a play-in match. Although it’s not entirely clear, it will probably be harder for the Grizzlies to make the playoffs now than it was beforehand.
Washington Wizards (Increase in Strength of Schedule: -0.007)
Overall Outlook: Improved
Although the Wizards will be missing their star player, Bradley Beal, they still may have a chance of making the playoffs. They were the only team in the league to have a decrease in their strength of schedule. The Wizards are the 9th seed, and they are 6 games behind the 7th seeded Nets. Because of the losses the Nets have suffered, the Wizards only need to make up 2 games in the standings to force a play-in. The West has 13 teams fighting for a playoff spot, and the East only has 9, meaning the Wizards also have less competition. Although it will be difficult, the Wizards now have a chance of reaching the playoffs after seemingly having no chance before the restart.
All-Star Analytics 