Section 1: Introduction
With NBA free agency essentially over, many fans are debating how teams performed and which were the “winners” and “losers”. This is meant to be a brief post just ranking all 30 teams based solely off of the stats. The ranking is quickly calculated using next season’s projected wins above replacement (WAR) statistic for each player from the 2018-19 season that changed teams. These projections are from fivethirthyeight. Each team has a net change based on how many wins above replacement they added minus how many they lost. This net change can serve as an estimate for how many wins will be added or subtracted from the previous season’s win total, and it is the metric used to evaluate the strength of a team’s offseason moves.
Section 2: The Results
| Rank | Team | WAR Added | WAR Lost | Net Change | 2018-19 Wins | Total Entering 2019-20 | Players Added | Players Lost |
| 1 | Clippers | 16.7 | 4.8 | 11.9 | 48 | 59.9 | George, Harkless, Kabengele, Leonard, Mann | Chandler, Gallinari, Gilgeous-Alexander, Motley, Temple, Thornwell, Wallace |
| 2 | Mavericks | 7.8 | -0.4 | 8.2 | 33 | 41.2 | Curry, Wright, Porzingis, Marjanovic | Burke, Harris, Mejri, Nowitzki, Antetokounmpo |
| 3 | Nets | 14.2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 42 | 49.4 | Chandler, Claxton, Durant, Irving, Jordan, Prince, Temple | Carroll, Crabbe, Davis, Dudley, Graham, Hollis-Jefferson, Napier, Russell |
| 4 | Bulls | 4.7 | -2.3 | 7 | 22 | 29 | Gafford, Satoransky, White, Young, Kornet | Harrison, Lemon, Lopez, Cabarrot, Selden |
| 5 | Lakers | 13.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 37 | 42.2 | Bradley, Cook, Cousins, Daniels, Davis, Dudley, Green, Horton-Tucker, Norvell, Antetokounmpo | Ball, Bonga, Bullock, Chandler, Hart, Ingram, Muscala, Stephenson, Wagner |
| 6 | Suns | 3.7 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 19 | 22.5 | Baynes, Carter, Jerome, Johnson, Rubio, Saric | Bender, Crawford, Daniels, Fredette, Holmes, Jackson, Melton, Spalding, Warren |
| 7 | Kings | 3.2 | 0.2 | 3 | 39 | 42 | Ariza, Dedmon, Guy, Holmes, James, Joseph | Brewer, Burks, Cauley-Stein, Koufos, Mason, Williams, McLemore |
| 8 | Heat | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 39 | 41.2 | Butler, Herro, Leonard, Okpala | Anderson, Haslem, Richardson, Wade, Whiteside |
| 9 | Magic | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 42 | 43.9 | Aminu | Caupain, Grant, Martin, Mozgov |
| 10 | 76ers | 10.4 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 51 | 52.9 | Horford, Neto, O’Quinn, Richardson, Thybulle, Burke | Butler, Johnson, Korkmaz, Marjanovic, McConnell, Monroe, Redick, Simmons |
| 11 | Pelicans | 13.8 | 12 | 1.8 | 33 | 34.8 | Alexander-Walker, Ball, Favors, Hart, Hayes, Ingram, Redick, Williamson | Clark, Davis, Diallo, Hill, Johnson, Payton, Randle, Wood |
| 12 | Rockets | 8.1 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 53 | 54.7 | Davis, Westbrook, McLemore | Faried, Nene, Paul, Shumpert |
| 13 | Nuggets | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 54 | 55.4 | Grant | Lydon, Lyles, Thomas |
| 14 | Knicks | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1 | 17 | 18 | Barrett, Brazdeikis, Bullock, Ellington, Gibson, Morris, Payton, Portis, Randle | Ellenson, Hezonja, Jordan, Kornet, Mudiay, Thomas, Vonleh |
| 15 | Cavaliers | -0.8 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 19 | 19.7 | Garland, Porter, Windler | Chriss, Frye, Nwaba, Smith, Stauskas |
| 16 | Wizards | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 32 | 32.7 | Bertans, Bonga, Hachimura, Jones, Miles, Schofield, Smith, Thomas, Wagner | Ariza, Dekker, Green, Howard, Parker, Portis, Randle, Satoransky |
| 17 | Pistons | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 41 | 40.9 | Doumbouya, Frazier, Morris, Rose, Snell | Calderon, Ellington, Leuer, Pachulia, Robinson, Smith |
| 18 | Grizzlies | 6.4 | 6.7 | -0.3 | 33 | 32.7 | Allen, Clarke, Crowder, Hill, Iguodala, Jackson, Jones, Konchar, Melton, Morant, Plumlee | Bradley, Carter, Conley, Dorsey, Holiday, Miles, Noah, Parsons, Wright |
| 19 | Timber-wolves | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 36 | 34.7 | Bell, Culver, Graham, Layman, Napier, Vonleh, Wallace | Bayless, Deng, Gibson, Jones, Rose, Saric, Tolliver |
| 20 | Jazz | 5.7 | 7.4 | -1.7 | 50 | 48.3 | Bogdanovic, Conley, Oni, Davis, Green, Mudiay | Allen, Crowder, Favors, Korver, Neto, Rubio, Sefolosha, Udoh |
| 21 | Spurs | 0.1 | 2.1 | -2 | 48 | 46 | Carroll, Johnson, Lyles, Samanic | Bertans, Cunningham, Pondexter |
| 22 | Pacers | 5.7 | 7.9 | -2.2 | 48 | 45.8 | Bitadze, Brogdon, Lamb, Warren, Holiday | Bogdanovic, Collison, Evans, Joseph, Matthews, O’Quinn, Young |
| 23 | Blazers | 1.5 | 4.2 | -2.7 | 53 | 50.3 | Bazemore, Hezonja, Little, Tolliver, Whiteside, Gasol | Aminu, Curry, Harkless, Kanter, Layman, Leonard, Turner |
| 24 | Hawks | -1.2 | 1.8 | -3 | 29 | 26 | Crabbe, Fernando, Hunter, Jones, Parker, Parsons, Reddish, Turner | Adams, Anderson, Bazemore, Carter, Dedmon, Plumlee, Prince, Spellman |
| 25 | Bucks | -1.1 | 4.3 | -5.4 | 60 | 54.6 | Lopez, Matthews, Korver, Bender | Brogdon, Frazier, Gasol, Mirotic, Snell |
| 26 | Warriors | 5.1 | 11.3 | -6.2 | 57 | 50.8 | Burks, Cauley-Stein, Paschall, Poole, Robinson, Russell, Smailagic, Spellman | Bell, Bogut, Cook, Cousins, Durant, Iguodala, Jerebko, Jones, Lee, Livingston |
| 27 | Thunder | 12.4 | 18.9 | -6.5 | 49 | 42.5 | Bazley, Gallinari, Gilgeous-Alexander, Muscala, Paul | Felton, George, Grant, Morris, Westbrook |
| 28 | Celtics | 6.1 | 13.4 | -7.3 | 49 | 41.7 | Edwards, Langford, Walker, Williams, Kanter | Baynes, Horford, Irving, Morris, Rozier, Yabusele |
| 29 | Hornets | 1.5 | 9 | -7.5 | 39 | 31.5 | Rozier, Washington | Kaminsky, Lamb, Mack, Macura, Parker, Walker |
| 30 | Raptors | 0.5 | 8.8 | -8.3 | 58 | 49.7 | Johnson, Hollis-Jefferson | Green, Leonard, Lin, Meeks |
Section 3: Analysis
This is a quick and easy way to rank offseasons, and it does yield some interesting trends. It should again be stressed that these rankings are based solely off of the effect that the offseason will have on a team’s next season. Even with this caveat, it is not perfect and does have some limitations.
3.1: Limitations
There are obviously some significant limitations to do rankings in this way, and this can cause the list to look different than what most fans might think it should be:
- This doesn’t take into account how well a player fits with his new team, which could affect his future production. For example, teams whose players work well together could exceed expectations, reaching a scenario where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts (similar to , or they could face the opposite (similar to 2018-19 Celtics)
- This only takes next season’s projections into account, penalizing teams who focused on acquiring future assets. For example, the Thunder have a lowly rated offseason — and they likely will experience a significant dropoff in wins — but they decided to take this path and were able to trade their players for future picks, having arguably one of the best free agencies when looking at the big picture.
- When projecting 2019-20 win totals, injuries from the previous season are ignored. For example, the win projection for the Lakers adds their net change in WAR to their 2018-19 win total. However, in the 2018-19 season many players, such as LeBron James, were injured, and if those players were healthy the Lakers would have won more games and be projected to be higher for the coming season.
3.2: Interesting Trends
I found some intriguing patterns when going through the table, and I encourage you to comment any that you might have found.
3.2.1: All-NBA Players
In the 2019 offseason, 6 of the 15 All-NBA players changed teams. The 5 teams which had these players ended up being ranked as the teams with the 5 worst offseasons: #30. Raptors (lost Kawhi Leonard), #29. Hornets (lost Kemba Walker), #28. Celtics (lost Kyrie Irving), #27. Thunder (lost Paul George and Russell Westbrook), #26. Warriors (lost Kevin Durant). The trend was not as strong for the 4 teams that acquired these 6 players. The two teams that acquired two All-NBA players ranked in the top 3: #1. Clippers (acquired Kawhi Leonard and Paul George), #3 Nets (acquired Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving). The other two teams who acquired an All-NBA player didn’t rank as highly because they ended up losing other key players in the process: #12 Rockets (acquired Russell Westbrook but lost Chris Paul), #28 Celtics (acquired Kemba Walker but lost Kyrie Irving). Overall, it seems losing a top-tier player is a strong indicator that a team will be much worse next season but gaining a top-tier player isn’t as strong a predictor of improvement because it often involves having to give up other players to accommodate the addition.
3.2.2: Good Season Correlated with Good Offseason?
I looked at if there was any relationship with how many games a team won in the 2018-19 offseason and how much WAR they added in the offseason. On one hand, it should be easier for high-achieving teams to attract good players, but on the other hand it’s also harder for them to make significant improvements. These were the results: 
Overall, there seems to be a slightly negative correlation, but nothing major. This can be viewed as slightly encouraging to fans whose teams have disappointing seasons: at least their slightly more likely to get better than to get worse. Comment what you think of these results and if you think the rankings should be different.
All-Star Analytics 