2019-2020 NBA Awards Predictions (Part 1)

These are my predictions for who will win each award this upcoming NBA season. I will give my picks and discuss who I think are the some of the main other candidates for each award, but obviously I can’t list every single possible winner. All stats are from basketball reference unless otherwise noted.

 

Executive of the Year: Lawrence Frank (Los Angeles Clippers)

Based on the net change of wins above replacement added this offseason, the Los Angeles Clippers are projected to have the largest improvement. Their executive is Lawrence Frank. The Clippers will most likely be the top seed in the Western Conference. The jump can be attributed to acquiring Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, and Lawrence Frank will get credit for this.

The other contenders for Executive of the Year are Dennis Lindsey of the Utah Jazz, Rob Pelinka of the Los Angeles Lakers, and David Griffin of the New Orleans Pelicans.

Dennis Lindsey made many important acquisitions this offseason in Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. Rob Pelinka made the blockbuster trade for Anthony Davis. David Griffin boosted the Pelican’s rebuild ahead by several years after trading and drafting many young players, and he still managed to sign veterans such as JJ Redick. If any of these teams end up improving a lot or exceeding expectations due to their offseason moves, their executives will have a good chance at winning the award.

 

Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers (Los Angeles Clippers)

As with the Executive of the Year, the Clippers have a good chance to be the top seed in the Western Conference next season, and this would propel Doc Rivers to win Coach of the Year.

Other contenders are Quin Snyder of the Utah Jazz, Greg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs, Brad Stevens of the Boston Celtics, Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors, Mike D’antoni of the Houston Rockets, and Terry Stots of the Portland Trailblazers. Each of them has consistently been viewed as one of the best coaches in the NBA, and it will really just come down to which team exceeds expectations.

 

Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams

Lou Williams has a good chance of winning his fourth Sixth Man of the Year award. The voting from last year was a complete blowout. Lou Williams got 96 first place votes, and 3 other players got 1 or 2 first place votes. Lou Williams’ stats are close to All-Star level, and even though he comes off the bench, he plays more minutes than many starters. His production might regress with the Clippers adding Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but even with that regression he will still be far ahead of other contenders.

Some other contenders are Spencer Dinwiddie, Terrence Ross, and Montrezl Harrell. Montrezl Harrell has worse stats than Lou Williams, and they are on the same team. Even if he puts up incredible stats, it will be hard to win if he’s not the best bench player on his own team.

Terrence Ross and Spencer Dinwiddie both had great stats last year, but they still didn’t compare to Williams. Ross averaged 15 points per game and had a 15.4 player efficiency rating, while Dinwiddie average 17 points and had a 16.3 player efficiency rating. However, Lou Williams averaged 20 points per game and had a 21.2 player efficiency rating. The only thing holding Lou back will be voter fatigue, but he still has the best chance.

 

Most Improved Player: Lonzo Ball

On a new team, Lonzo Ball will get more opportunities to prove himself, and he might win the award as a result. On the Lakers, Lonzo wasn’t the primary ball handler; it was LeBron. His stats weren’t great, and even regressed from his first season: 10 points and 5 assists on 48% on two pointers and 33% on three pointers. Now on the New Orleans Pelicans, Lonzo Ball will have more opportunities and boost his scoring averages. He should have the ball in his hands more, and with Zion Williamson and JJ Redick on his team, Lonzo should be able to inflate his assist numbers in addition to his points.

Some of the other contenders for most improved player are Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dejounte Murray.

Last season, Jayson Tatum averaged 15.7 points per game on 45% from the field and 37% from three. With Kyrie gone, Tatum will have to fill the void and average at least 20 points per game if he wants a chance at winning the award.

Terry Rozier will get the chance to put up inflated stats on a terrible Hornets team. After being stuck on the Celtics bench, he now will be the leader of the Charlotte Hornets. However, if the Hornets are near the bottom of the league, voters might think that he’s just having “empty-calorie” stats, and still view him as the player he’s been for the past two years.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a promising season last year, averaging 11 points per game, on 48% from the field and 37% from three. Similar to Lonzo, there is room for him to improve on a new team. However unlike Lonzo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won’t be the primary ball handler for his new team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, as this will probably be Chris Paul.

Dejounte Murray missed all of last season with an ACL tear, but people were already predicting him to win Most Improved last season. Now as the Spur’s point guard, if he steps up his offense and defense, he could win the award.

 

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