Make sure to check out part 1 and part 2 first. This part will cover seeds 1-5.

5. Utah Jazz

Last season the Jazz won 50 games, and this offseason they made multiple key additions: Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Ed Davis, and Emanuel Mudiay. The Jazz also lost Grayson Allen, Jay Crowder, Derrick Favors, Marco Rubio, Thablo Sefolosha, Beno Udoh, Kyle Korver, and Raul Neto. The Jazz lost much of their depth in exchange for two good players in Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic.

With these additions their projected starting lineup is: Mike Conely, Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Rudy Gobert; off the bench: Emmanuel Mudiay, Joe Ingles, and Ed Davis. Unlike the teams ahead of them, the Utah Jazz don’t have a clear best player; it could be Conley, Mitchell, or Gobert. The teams I think will finish above them all have top 10 players, and someone will have to carry this team if they want to get a top 4 seed. With the West being more competitive, I’m not sure the Jazz can finish much higher than this.

4. Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets put together a very impressive season last year, getting the second seed after winning 54 games. They will once again be competing for the top seed, but their competitors have improved more than the Nuggets have themselves.

The Nuggets are led by All-NBA center Nikola Jokic, but outside of Jokic there isn’t much help. Many attribute some of the Nuggets’ success to Jamal Murray, but his advanced stats reveal a much different story. While Jokic and Millsap have a value over replacement of 7.3 and 2.1 respectively, Murray has a mere 1.3. Moreover, Jokic and Millsap have box plus minuses of 9.5 and 2.4 respectively, while Jamal Murray’s is .1. Also, Jokic and Millsap have player efficiency ratings of 26.3 and 17.9 respectively, but Murray is at 16.0, barely above the league average of 15. It is clear that even Millsap is nowhere near the player Jokic is, and the majority, if not all, of the Nuggets’ success can be solely attributed to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets didn’t make any major offseason moves, only adding Jerami Grant. They didn’t lose many pieces either: just Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, and Isaiah Thomas. The Nuggets projected starting lineup is: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, and Nikola Jokic; off the bench: Michael Porter Jr, Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, and Bol Bol.

The Nuggets offseason acquisitions will likely not result in many more wins; the only place where those may come from are their two rookies: Michael Porter Jr and Bol Bol. Neither has shown any promise during preseason, and both have been injury prone. The Nuggets will be near the top, but I don’t think they did enough to keep up with the competition.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers were looking good midway through last season; then LeBron got injured. This led to the Lakers spiraling downward and only winning 37 games, despite having been on track to win 48 games before the injury. This offseason the Lakers acquired: Avery Bradley, Quinn Cook, Demarcus Cousins (who will be injured for the regular season), Danny Green, Jared Dudley, Dwight Howard and most importantly, Anthony Davis. All these acquisitions came at a cost though, leaving the team were: Lonzo Ball, Reggie Bullock, Tyson Chandler, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Mike Muscala, and Lance Stephenson. The Lakers lost many young players, but they retained the most valuable one: Kyle Kuzma.

The Lakers’ starting lineup for next season is projected to be: Rajon Rondo, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard; off the bench: Quin Cook, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, JaVale McGee, Avery Bradley, and Alex Caruso. This is a very deep team that can allow its stars to rest. The addition of Anthony Davis and the foreseen improvements from Kyle Kuzma coupled with LeBron James will likely result in a championship for the Lakers. Even though the Lakers might be able to win it all, they probably won’t be at the very top of the Western Conference due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis resting and the lack of urgency to get a top seed.

2. Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets really only had one important move this offseason. They traded Chris Paul for All-NBA guard Russel Westbrook. The Chris Paul experiment had the Rockets nearly reach the finals both years, each time falling just short to the Warriors.

The hope will be that Westbrook can be better than Paul. Looking at the stats, Westbrook averaged 7 more points on a slightly better field goal percentage. The advanced numbers also clearly favor Westbrook, with his value over replacement being nearly two and a half times larger. Westbrook’s player efficiency rating and box plus minus were also both significantly better than Pauls’. Also, Westbrook and Harden played together on the Thunder for the first three years of Harden’s career, so there shouldn’t be any chemistry issues like there were last year.

The Rockets also lost Kenneth Faried and Iman Shumpert. Their projected lineup for this season is: Russell Wesbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, and Clint Capela; off the bench: Tyson Chandler, Austin Rivers, Nene, Gerald Green, and Isaiah Haternstein. Last season the Rockets won 53 games, and with their upgrade at point guard they can hope for a slight improvement.

Unlike Oklahoma City, in Houston Westbrook will be surrounded by shooters (Gordon, Tucker, Rivers, Green) and he’ll be able to kick out for open 3 pointers when he drives. He’ll also hopefully not have to take low-efficiency shots now that he has teammates that can help carry the load. Similarly to Oklahoma City, Westbrook will also have a lob target, now Capela instead of Adams. The Rockets always invest in winning regular season games, and if the team meshes well they should be in the running for the top seed.

1. Los Angeles Clippers

Coming off of an excellent season that surpassed expectations, the Los Angeles Clippers managed to acquire the 2019 Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard, in free agency, as well as trade for first-team All-NBA forward Paul George. These acquisitions came at a cost though, as Danillo Gallinari and Shai Gigeous-Alexander were two of their most significant losses. However, most of what they surrendered was future draft picks, and while this might have consequences, it won’t hurt them for this season. Based off of win above replacement added vs. wins above replacement lost, the Clippers are expected to win 60 games this season.

The Clippers will compete to have the top defense in the NBA. Last year’s Defensive Player of the Year voting had Paul George 3rd, Kawhi Leonard tied for 6th, and Patrick Beverly tied for 9th. The Clippers projected starting lineup for next season is: Patrick Beverly, Landry Shamet, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Ivica Zubac; off the bench: Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Lou Williams is the returning 6th man of the year, so the Clippers have a very strong secondary unit with him and Harrell. However, both players will see significant playing time.

Offensively, Paul George, Lou Williams, and Kawhi Leonard are all top 15 in real plus minus. The Clippers will also be a great shooting team this season: Paul George shot 39% from three, Landry Shamet shot 42%, Kawhi Leonard shot 37%, and Patrick Beverly shot 40%. They won’t have to solely rely on 3’s, as Montrezl Harrell is one of the most efficient post scorers. He scored 17 points per game on 62% from the field, and this percentage was 5th overall.

The main concern will be how many games Kawhi and George are able to play. Last season Kawhi rested 22 games, and George has been known to be injury prone, already ruled out for the beginning of the season. If the Clippers don’t prioritize getting the #1 seed and instead rest their stars, it’s possible that more desperate teams will finish higher. Still, this team is the championship favorite, and they’re my pick to earn the top seed.