Make sure to check out part 1 first. This part covers seeds 6-10.

10. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder had a very interesting offseason, trading away their two All-NBA players, Paul George and Russell Westbrook, and acquiring a number of draft picks. At the same time it looks like they have enough talent to remain competitive.

Their projected starting lineup for next season is: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Andre Roberson, Danilo Gallinari, and Steevn Adams; off the bench: Dennis Schroder, Terrance Ferguson, Mike Muscala, and Nerlens Noel. There is still no set return date for Andre Roberson after rupturing his left patellar tendon in January of 2018, but Roberson says he will be back in action soon.

The Thunders’ success this season will depend on if Chris Paul doesn’t regress and if second-year player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s improves. Based on their net change in wins above replacement, the Thunder are predicted to win 42.5 games. However, there is a risk that they go into a full rebuild mode and trade players such as Paul, Adams, and/or Gallinari. They’re unlikely to make the playoffs, but Chris Paul should keep them competitive.

9. Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have one of the best young duos with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is coming off tearing his ACL in February of 2018; that season he put up 23 points, 2.5 blocks, 6.6 rebounds, on 39.5% from three, and 44% from the field. Last season the Mavs were led by Luka Doncic, and in his rookie of the year campaign he averaged 21 points, with an effective field goal percentage of 49.7. Doncic and Porzingis should fit well, and their pick and roll will be very hard to stop.

The problem is that Doncic and Porzingis don’t have much help. The starting lineup for next season is projected to be: Delon Wright, Luka Doncic, Justin Jackson, Kristaps Porzingis, and Dwight Powell; off the bench: Jalen Brunson, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber, and Boban Marjanovic. The Mavs lost some pieces as well: Trey Burke, Devin Harris, Salah Mejri, and Dirk Nowitzki. Their net change in wins above replacement for their offseason and their midseason acquisition of Kristaps ranks 2nd, only behind the Clippers, at 8.2. Last season the Mavs won 33 games, and these extra wins will boost them to nearly a .500 team.

The Mavs look like one of the teams with the best futures, and they should be in the playoff fight, but I think they’ll barely miss out.

8. San Antonio Spurs

With a 22-year playoff appearance streak on the line, I think the Spurs will barely manage to extend it. Although it may seem that the Spurs are aging out of the playoffs, they still have many young talented players: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Bryn Forbes, Jakob Poeltl, and Lonnie Walker IV. The Spurs have shown that they are by far the best at developing rookies into players who are very productive. The Spurs also have DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge who helped lead them to the playoffs last year.

Their projected starting lineup for this season is: Dejounte Murray, Bryn Forbes, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Jakob Poeltl; off the bench: Derrick White, Patty Mills, DeMarre Carroll, Rudy Gay, and Lonnie Walker IV. The Spurs won 48 games last year and didn’t have a very significant offseason, only losing Dante Cunningham and Davis Bertans. The Spurs only significant addition was DeMarre Carroll. Additionally, young star Dejounte Murray will be back after missing all of last season, and he should have a significant impact, as he was one of the youngest players to ever make an All-Defensive team. The Spurs have always found a way to make the playoffs under coach Popovich, and I expect the trend to continue.

7. Portland Trailblazers

After getting swept by the Kevin Durant-less Warriors team in last year’s Western Conference Finals, the Portland Trailblazers didn’t accomplish much in the offseason. They lost: Al-Faruq Aminu, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Enes Kanter, Jake Layman, Myers Leonard, and Evan Turner, all who played significant minutes last season. The Blazers did make some additions though; they drafted Nasir Little and acquired: Kent Bazemore, Mario Hezonja, Anthony Tolliver, Hassan Whiteside, and an aging Pau Gasol. Whiteside has been terrible since getting his large contract, but they will need him to fill in at the center position.

The Blazers got worse this offseason, and their net change in wins above replacement confirms this, evaluating their offseason as having lost them 2.7 games. This would put the Blazers at 50 wins, but it gets worse. Near the end of last season, Jusuf Nurkic “sustained compound fractures to his left tibia and fibula”, and there is no timetable for his return now near the start of the next season; it is clear that if Nurkic does return this season he won’t play in many games. Nurkic was an integral piece of the Blazers, as he had the second most win shares on the Blazers and almost the highest player efficiency rating, only .3 less than Lillard. With so many teams having added star players, it will be hard for the Blazers to get a high seed.

6. Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors suffered two devastating injuries last playoffs: Klay Thompson tore his ACL and Kevin Durant’s ruptured his Achilles. While Durant left to Brooklyn, Thompson still remains, and his loss will be significant for the Warriors. Luckily, the Warriors were able to acquire D’Angelo Russell from the Nets, but overall they lost: Kevin Durant, Andrew Bogut, Quinn Cook, Demarcus Cousins, Shaun Livingston, Jonas Jerebko, David Lee, Jordan Bell, and Damian Jones. Much like the Jazz, the Warriors depth is clearly depleted.

Their projected starting lineup for next season is: Stephen Curry, D’Angelo Russell, Glenn Robinson III, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney; off the bench: Willie Cauley-Stein and Alec Burks. The Warriors net wins above replacement for this offseason was -6.2 wins; thus, they are projected to win about 51 games. However, this projection does not factor in Klay Thompson’s injury which will result in losing a few more games before his return after the all-star game. Once Thompson returns, the Warriors will probably play at a level much closer to the championship caliber team that the NBA has gotten used to. They’ll be a dangerous team to face in the first round, but I don’t expect them to get a high seed.