With the 2019-20 NBA season starting on October 22, these are my predictions for what the Western Conference standings will be. These are based on what teams I project to have the most wins, not necessarily which teams I think are the best or are most likely to win the championship. I will reference my post on free agency additions and subtractions, and all stats are from basketball reference unless otherwise noted. This part will cover seeds 11-15.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies won 33 games and landed the second pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. With that pick they drafted Ja Morant. Ja Morant hasn’t been spectacular in the preseason, averaging 11 points per game and 7 assists per game. However, executives and scouts saw a lot of potential and promise after his phenomenal play at Murray State. The aforementioned stats were for only 22 minutes per game, so if they were scaled up to per 36 minutes, Morant would be averaging 18 points per game and 11 assists, great stats for a rookie.

The issue for the Grizzlies is that the rest of the team is terrible. They have a promising young defender in second-year player Jaren Jackson Jr, but overall they don’t have any proven stars. Their projected starting lineup for next season is: Ja Morant Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Jonas Valanciunas; off the bench: Tyus Jones, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, and Brandon Clarke. This offseason the Grizzlies added Grayson Allen, Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr, Jae Crowder, and Ja Morant. They also lost Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, Avery Bradley, CJ Miles, and Delon Wright.

The losses of Mike Conley, Avery Bradley, and Delon Wright will hurt the most. Those three players were three of the Grizzlies top 6 scorers, and they were replaced with Ja Morant, Jae Crowder, and Brandon Clarke. The former group is clearly superior, thus it is unlikely the Grizzlies will be better than last year. After trading away star point guard Mike Conley, it won’t be surprising if the Grizzlies go into a full rebuild and spend this season tanking for a top pick.

14. Phoenix Suns

This offseason the Phoenix Suns made a highly questionable move. They traded their second leading scorer, TJ Warren, as well as the 32nd pick, for cash considerations. The story goes that when the Pacers got the call they thought it was a joke, and once they realized it wasn’t, they took it in a hurry. The Suns’ other notable losses include Josh Jackson, Jamal Crawford, and Richuan Holmes.

The Suns did make some good additions during the offseason, acquiring: Ricky Rubio, Dario Saric, Aaron Baynes and rookie Cameron Johnson. Their net wins above replacement for these changes was 3.5 wins. This would put the Suns at 22.5 wins, well below all other teams. The Suns will likely get a few more wins than that due to improvements from Deandre Ayton in his sophomore year. Still, this team has been at the bottom of the NBA for a while, and I don’t think they’ve done enough to change that.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to fail to provide adequate support for their star, Karl-Anthony Towns. This offseason the Timberwolves acquired Jarrett Culver with the 6th pick, Jake Layman, Noah Vonleh, Shabazz Napier, and Jordan Bell. Jarrett Culver has played decently in the preseason, averaging 12.4 points, on 41% from the field and 28% from three.

The Timberwolves projected is: Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Jake Layman, Robert Covington, and Karl-Anthony Towns; off the bench: Shabazz Napier, Josh Okogie, Jarrett Culver, and Gorgui Dieng. Former #1 pick Andrew Wiggins somehow seems to be declining; last season he averaged 18 points on 41% from the field and 34% from three. His advanced stats were even worse: a negative box plus minus, negative value over replacement, and a 12.4 player efficiency rating, well below the league average of 15.0.

The Timberwolves managed to lose some value pieces though, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Derrick Rose, and Dario Saric all left in free agency. The Timberwolves net change in wins above replacement for their offseason moves was -1.3 wins, placing them at about 35 wins for next season. There are many teams in the west that could be competing for the playoffs next year, but I don’t think this is one of them.

12. New Orleans Pelicans

Health is a major concern for the Pelicans. Brandon Ingram has played 111 games in the last two seasons, Lonzo Ball has played 99 games in the last two seasons (each out of a possible 164 games). #1 overall pick Zion Williamson has already been ruled out for three weeks. There might not be many games when everyone is playing together.

This offseason the Pelicans also acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Derrick Favors, Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes, and JJ Redick. The Pelicans lost: Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, and Elfrid Payton. The Pelicans projected starting lineup for next season is: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Wiliamson, and Derrick Favors; off the bench Nickeil Alexander-Walker, JJ Redick, Jahil Okafor, and Jaxson Hayes.

It is clear the Pelicans have a very young and talented team. Williamson and Alexander-Walker have been great in preseason, but their availability could be a problem. Outside of JJ Redick and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Pelicans might struggle with shooting. Another issue for the Pelicans is shooting. In their projected starting backcourt, Lonzo shot 33% from 3, Holiday shot 32.5% from 3. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pelicans exceed expectations thanks to Zion and improvements from their young players, but I think they’re a year or two away.

11. Sacramento Kings

This offseason the Sacramento Kings handed out several terrible contracts, and their future looks somewhat in jeopardy. After winning 39 games last season, the Kings gave Harrison Barnes a 4-year $85 million contract, Dewayne Demon 3-year $40 million, Trevor Ariza 2-year $25 million, and Corey Joseph 3-year $37 million. These players will contribute positively for the Kings this year, but in the next few years, when Bagley, Bogdanovic, Fox, and Hield ask for their contracts, this offseason’s signings might haunt the Kings.

Their projected starting lineup for this season is: De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Marvin Bagley III, and Dewayne Demon; off the bench: Cory Joseph, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica. The key departures from the Kings were Corey Brewer and Wilie Cauley-Stein. These moves result in a 3 win net change in wins above replacement, putting the kings at about 42 games. The Kings will compete to make the playoffs, but it will take even more improvement from their young players to make it.