Make sure to check out part 1 and part 2 first. This is the final part, and it will cover seeds 1-5.

5. Toronto Raptors

The returning champions lost their best player, Kawhi Leonard, and another key player, Danny Green this offseason. The Raptors also didn’t make much noise in free agency this year, with their biggest addition being Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Their projected starting lineup is: Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, and off the bench, Fred VanFleet, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Serge Ibaka.

Last season the Raptors won 58 games, and when Kawhi Leonard didn’t play, they went 17-5. They showed that they could win games without Kawhi, and extending Lowry’s contract shows that they’re still focused on a playoff push. If Pascal Siakam has another breakout year, the Raptors could still fight homecourt in the first round. They might have lost the 2019 Finals MVP, but this is still a playoff team at the very least.

4. Brooklyn Nets

This offseason the Brooklyn Nets added All-NBA players Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, acquired center Deandre Jordan. Last season the Nets won 42 games, being led by a core of D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert, and Joe Harris. This offseason their defining acquisitions came at the cost of Russell from that core, who will be replaced with Kyrie Irving.

Statistically, Kyrie is superior to Russell. Last season, Russell’s PER (player efficiency rating) was 19.4, while Kyrie’s was 24.3. Kyrie also nearly doubled Russell in win shares, win shares per 48, and box plus minus. The only concern with Kyrie is that of chemistry. His inability to work with teammates hurt the Celtics last year, but now that he’s on a team that he’s chosen, I expect that this won’t be an issue.

They also have Jarrett Allen and Caris Levert who could have a breakout seasons, and the Deandre Jordan signing adds depth and defense to an already strong team. Durant probably won’t play for any of the 2019-20 regular season, but if the upgrade at point guard leads to improvement, the Nets should be fighting for a top-4 seed.

3. Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics lost two of their best players this offseason: point guard Kyrie Irving and center Al Horford. They will try to replace the production of these losses with Kemba Walker and Enes Kanter. They will also hope to see improvement from their wings Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum. Their projected starting lineup for this season is: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Robert Williams III, and off the bench, Jaylen Brown.

Last season, the Celtics won 49 games. Kemba Walker is definitely a downgrade from Kyrie Irving, but the Celtics won’t suffer too much from this loss, as their stats are similar enough. However, the loss that will hurt the most will be that of Al Horford. Of players on the Celtics that played at least 500 minutes, Al Horford had the highest Box Plus Minus, second highest win shares, and second highest Player Efficiency rating. Enes Kanter will try to fill in Horford’s role, but he is much weaker as a defensive player. The Celtics were projected to be the best team in the East last year by many experts, but chemistry issues (mainly with Irving and Rozier who both left) were their downfall. While they’re less talented this year, their chemistry will probably improve, and it will be interesting to see if they are better or worse than last season.

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks won the most regular season games last year, but they lost two integral pieces in free agency: both Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic. According to my rankings, the Bucks had a -5.4 change in wins added over replacement this offseason, ranking 25th in the league. Their projected starting lineup is: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokuonmpo, Brook Lopez. Giannis thrives with shooters surrounding him, and the situation might be worse without Mirotic and Brodgon. Brogdon became one of the only players in NBA history to have 50/40/90 shooting splits for a season, and Bledsoe likely won’t come close to replicating this as Milwaukee’s point guard. If there is a decreased spacing for Giannis, he might have trouble driving as often, and this would lead to the Bucks’ offensive production declining from last year’s 117 points per game.

Defensively, Milwaukee allowed 108 points per game last season, and this number should stay about the same this season. The biggest question will be if Giannis can step up his game even further and find a way to be effective outside of the paint. If he does this and becomes a 3-point shooting threat, it will become almost impossible to guard him. The Bucks are legitimate title contenders, and they could very easily be the #1 seed, but I predict that they’ll fall just short.

1. Philadelphia 76ers

I predict that this will be the year that the Philadelphia 76ers earn the first seed in the Eastern Conference. This offseason they lost two important starters with J.J. Redick and Jimmy Butler. Redick left for nothing, however the 76ers were able to receive Josh Richardson from the Heat in a 4 team trade. This addition, coupled with the Al Horford signing will result in possibly the best defense in the league. Their projected starting line-up is: Simmons, Richardson, Harris, Horford, and Embiid. The shortest starter is 6’6” Josh Richardson. Last year the 76ers had the 14th best defense, but having a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year in Joel Embiid and having the tallest team in the league gives them a good chance to significantly improve.

From an offensive standpoint, the 76ers will be a very interesting team to watch. Jimmy Butler created many of their shots last season, but his and Redick’s shooting will be somewhat replaced by Richardson and Tobias Harris. Last season on the Clippers, Tobias Harris averaged 20 points on 50% from the field and 43% from three. When he was traded midway through the season to the 76ers, his points experienced a slight dropoff, but his three point percentage plummeted to 33%. This season he will get more opportunities with Jimmy Butler’s departure. If his stats return to where they were with the Clippers, the 76ers shouldn’t take much of a step back offensively, if at all.

The main offensive concern for the 76ers is their lack of shooting. They will rely heavily on Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris for shooting, but the main question will be if Simmons can start spreading the floor. Simmons’ unwillingness to take threes or even mid-range shots has allowed opposing teams to leave his defender in the paint, clogging the lane for Embiid. Simmons already made a three pointer during the preseason, and if he starts shooting them at even an average efficiency, the 76ers are serious championship contenders.